There are some holes that the current IPv4 with NAT can't reasonably plug in a sound manner; as Jeroen pointed out, it could be PC/Xbox/PS2 games, NetMeeting, or heaven forbid, P2P warez (I don't want IPv6 to be flagged as a pirate ship by the government =p). IPv4+NAT can work around this, but only with dirty hacks. And in many cases these hacks are not 100% complete either.
If some of you want to say those limitations are not really important to most NAT users, just talk to anyone who played StartCraft behind her NAT box and got frustrated how she and her boyfriend can't play online at the same time because only one machine behind the NAT box can connect to the Blizzard's game server. Just in case you didn't know, StarCraft is still quite popular among kids and teens (it's even an official event in an international gaming competition; see www.worldcybergames.com), so I guess it's a bit hard to say it's not important to most NAT users. *grin*
Anyhow, I think that these niche markets are the number one target of IPv6. And one day, with people realizing what P2P is and how they actually need it (from their own practical point of view of course; see above), the niche markets won't be niche markets anymore.
Yes, it would be also good if IPv6 could `replace' IPv4+NAT one day. But it'd be like putting the cart before the horse to say IPv6 doesn't have much chance because it can't replace IPv4+NAT easily. Because that is not the only purpose of IPv6. I mean, if that replacement actually happens, good. If it doesn't happen, who cares? IPv6 will have its own market anyways. No need to stir up the trouble by shouting `Hey folks, you're all doomed in a sinking ship, whose name is IPv4!'
That said, what actually bothers me is the classic chicken-and-egg problem. Application writers are reluctant to add IPv6 support because they know that there is little to none of IPv6 infrastructure (read: ISPs supporting IPv6) out there. ISPs, on the other hand, are reluctant to do IPv6 business because they know that there are few to none of IPv6-ready applications out there. Two-way secret crush. I guess what we need to focus on is how to become a messenger of love. =)
Cheers, Eugene
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