I don't think that the Chinese will work with him. I think it's more like I see fewer reasons for the Chinese government to cooperate with the U.S. government than most European/Western nations that he could have run off to. The PRC is not going to let CIA/NSA agents just nab him from right under its nose.
I can see this as a positive for the PRC similar to how it often attempts to publicly criticize US double standards when it comes to human rights: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-04/21/c_132326904.htm There is a special irony to the fact that a U.S. whistle-blower is hiding in Chinese territory. I can see how that narrative may appeal to some people in the Chinese government. Again, the question boils down to whether that propaganda value is greater than just trading him off for some concrete diplomatic concession. Given that the US and Hong Kong have an extradition treaty, the Chinese government can really go either way on this. On 9 June 2013 18:44, Matt Johnson <railm...@gmail.com> wrote: > Raven, your analysis is interesting. > > I wonder why the Chinese would do anything to help him? I cannot see > how the publicity would work to the PRC's advantage. I am sure they > would work with him if he wanted to sell them docs, but that does not > seem to be his game. > > Of course you are right, he does not have any safe choices now. > > -- > Matt Johnson > > > > On Sun, Jun 9, 2013 at 5:41 PM, Nadim Kobeissi <na...@nadim.cc> wrote: > > > > On 2013-06-09, at 8:40 PM, Raven Jiang CX <j...@stanford.edu> wrote: > > > >> He did work in the intelligence community so maybe he has a better idea > than us. My guess is that asylum in Iceland is ideal if everything worked > out, but he doesn't think it is strong enough to resist U.S. pressure. > >> > >> Hong Kong is stable and modern, so he is less likely to be killed or > kidnapped by local criminals on CIA payroll, and at the same time the > Chinese government is less likely to cooperate with the U.S. than most > other stable governments around the world. > >> > >> It's definitely a risky choice, but it's not like there is really any > safe ones. I think the gamble boils down to whether China sees more value > in trading him off for some other diplomatic concession or keep him safe as > a constant reminder of U.S. hypocrisy. > > > > Very intelligent analysis there as to why he picked Hong Kong. > > > > NK > > > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> On 9 June 2013 17:17, Matt Johnson <railm...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> Snowden says he wants asylum in Iceland. Why not go there directly? > >> > >> Going to Hong Kong makes him vulnerable to accusations of working for > the PRC. > >> > >> None of that makes sense to me, but what do I know. I will watch, and > learn. > >> > >> -- > >> Matt > >> > >> On Sun, Jun 9, 2013 at 3:52 PM, Raven Jiang CX <j...@stanford.edu> > wrote: > >> > There is a strong resistance against Chinese strong-arming in Hong > Kong, > >> > plus I am not sure that it is actually in the interest of the Chinese > >> > government to help the US do anything about this. I think you can > make a > >> > case for why it's a better choice, though it is definitely debatable. > >> > > >> > > >> > On 9 June 2013 15:10, Sheila Parks <sheilaruthpa...@comcast.net> > wrote: > >> >> > >> >> I agree with what you say about Hong Kong > >> >> > >> >> He does say he would like to end up in Iceland > >> >> > >> >> Wonder why he did not go there in the first place > >> >> > >> >> Such an immensely brave and honest person > >> >> > >> >> Sheila > >> >> > >> >> > >> >> At 06:04 PM 6/9/2013, you wrote: > >> >>> > >> >>> On 06/09/2013 04:43 PM, Matt Johnson wrote: > >> >>> > I have to say going to Hong Kong for free speech and safety seems > like > >> >>> > a very odd choice to me. What was he thinking? > >> >>> > >> >>> Actually, and I think this is pointed out in either the video or an > >> >>> article somewhere, Hong Kong doesn't generally suffer the speech > >> >>> restrictions mainland China does. Sure, they aren't completely free > but > >> >>> protests and unpopular political speech happen quite frequently and > are > >> >>> generally well tolerated by the government. > >> >>> > >> >>> Still, I have to wonder why he didn't go somewhere like Iceland. To > me, > >> >>> that would have been a no-brainer. > >> >>> > >> >>> Anthony > >> >>> > >> >>> > >> >>> > >> >>> -- > >> >>> Anthony Papillion > >> >>> Phone: 1.918.533.9699 > >> >>> SIP: sip:cajuntec...@iptel.org > >> >>> iNum: +883510008360912 > >> >>> XMPP: cypherpun...@jit.si > >> >>> > >> >>> www.cajuntechie.org > >> >>> -- > >> >>> Too many emails? Unsubscribe, change to digest, or change password > by > >> >>> emailing moderator at compa...@stanford.edu or changing your > settings at > >> >>> https://mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/listinfo/liberationtech > >> >> > >> >> > >> >> Sheila Parks, Ed.D. > >> >> Founder > >> >> Center for Hand-Counted Paper Ballots > >> >> Watertown, MA 02472 > >> >> 617 744 6020 > >> >> DEMOCRACY IN OUR HANDS > >> >> www.handcountedpaperballots.org > >> >> she...@handcountedpaperballots.org > >> >> > >> >> -- > >> >> Too many emails? Unsubscribe, change to digest, or change password by > >> >> emailing moderator at compa...@stanford.edu or changing your > settings at > >> >> https://mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/listinfo/liberationtech > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > -- > >> > Too many emails? 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