On Mon, 2004-12-06 at 16:10 -0800, Jay P Hailey wrote:
> http://www.strike-the-root.com/4/herman/herman35.html
> 
> Money--Funny, Scary, Paper Money


No, we are not headed that way. Douglas only thinks we might be because
he doesn't have a good command of the situation, and the historical
changes in global currencies. I have yet to see someone who has a good
grasp on what is going on, and why, combined with historical knowledge
(not just tidbits, but the details and why-fors!) believe we are headed
that way.

Now to deal with some specifics.

Douglas wrote:
Paper money must have either a foundation of precious metal to back it
up--or government integrity for fiscal responsibility in the eyes of
financial leaders.  When both are lacking, that currency is doomed.

Actually, we've lived through several period where neither of these
existed, but the currency in question did not fail. Truth is, there
wasn't a gold standard when we went off of it. There were, and are,
however "market" controls through international agreements. These non-
market effects eventually caused the failure of the system(s).

Just as we are seeing today.

No more. "For the last thirty years, since Nixon closed the gold window,
the world has been on a paper money system.  Never before has the world
tried such a risky venture, and now dark clouds are gathering on the
horizon," wrote Bill Haynes.

Bill Haynes, again, doesn't know what he's talking about. Lemme clue you
in on what was really going on. During the days of the so-called "gold
standard", countries routinely left the gold standard in times such as
war or internal conflict or "great need". Indeed, it was standard
practice to do so. Further, the "gold standard" was regulated in gold-
prices. Seems too many forget, or never learned, this. If you care to
research this, google for "Brent Woods system". The phrase "what you
didn't know" will likely come to mind as you learn what the vast public
didn't know. No conspiracy, as they did it in the open it is just that
nobody paid any attention to it.


http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/bergsten0702.htm

Is from 2002. Pay particular attention to the historical comparisons and
the true consideration of the dollar value. One of the underlying points
is that the problem is in resisting the correction of the dollar. as
that resistance is finally allowed to die, things will actually improve,
not deteriorate as the fear-mongers proclaim. Sure, some people will not
do as well as others (hmm the word "duh!" comes to mind for some
reason), but overall we'll see improvement.

Sadly, I've been arguing this point pretty much solidly the last few
weeks (when one of my CPUs wasn't on the fritz) and don't have much
energy to put into it again anew. In summary, economists are wrong when
they say there will be a sudden fall of the dollar and resulting chaos,
yadda, yadda, yadda. 

Part of that is the "academic" and FRB/IMF economists' preoccupation
with overarching numbers that by definition do not take a multitude of
things into account. Part is also due to the public not paying any
attention to economists unless they are predicting doom.

Perhaps I'll have energy after the first of the year to summarize better
and drop it on the web somewhere.

Cheers,
Bill



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