Good evening Douglas!
Douglas Friedman wrote to Robert Goodman and Frank Reichert...
As luck would have it, we will have a great opportunity to test our
respective beliefs. In PA, the governor's race is between a
black Republican who is conservative on social issues and a standard
issue liberal Democrat incumbent. This, btw, will be the neo-Nazi's
nightmare, as the choice will be between a black and a Jew.
I think we got off base here a bit, since I originally brought up
the possibility of a Hillary Clinton vs. Condi Rice contest in
2008. Condi Rice is a black woman, but I doubt Hillary is a Jew,
unless that hasn't become an issue the press has discovered
somewhere.
Nevertheless, let me just say that neo-Nazi's aside, I understand
there are many traditionalist or conservative individuals, which
do not believe that women should be in charge over a man in any
political or social capacity. This would prove to be a nightmare
for such individuals in the event that Hillary and Condi have the
chance to spar at the national level in 2008. My guess is that
some, perhaps only a few though, conservations would refuse to
vote for the more conservative Condi based upon my foregoing.
The point I suggested originally was the pivotable black vote,
and what that might do to the Democrat Hillary who was counting
on just THAT voting block to prevail! Those supporting the draft
Condi Rice movement (and indeed it is becoming a movement, just
do a Google search on 'Condi Rice for President' and check out
what surfaces, seem to believe that a substantial percentage,
although maybe not even a majority, of black voters who be hard
pressed NOT to vote for Condi in spite of the NAACP and other
organs supposedly representing black interests.
> The general
guess is that if Swann, the Republican, gets 30% of the black vote he'll
win. I'm not sure exactly what the last Republican got, although he kind
of tanked the race. (Whether he just ran a bad campaign or, as I
believe, threw the race, is a matter of debate, but that's a separate
issue.)
Ah! Swann, the black conservative Republican isn't a woman. So
this isn't honestly a case in which compares with the analysis
presented in the book Hillary vs. Condi, now is it? There is no
doubt that being Jewish isn't necessarily a hindrance to winning
or at least scoring pretty damn high in elections, since this
isn't anything new on the national stage of major politics,
Joseph Lieberman (VP candidate) during the race against the
Shrub's first term, and even back much further (1956) in the race
against Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Democrat (and Jewish)
Adlai E. Stevenson at which time even back then, Stevenson scored
42% of the popular vote!
Maryland may have another black GOP vs. Jewish Dem, for Senate,
depending on how the Dem primary goes. Incidentally, the GOPer is
thought to have a better chance if the black (former NAACP head Mfume)
wins the primary, because black votes look about the same regardless of
who the Dems run, but moderate white Dems & independents will vote for
Steele (R) if Mfume wins, but Cardin (D) if he wins.
In the case of the 2008 races, it is far too early to tell
obviously. There is a scenario of sorts opening up at the
grassroots level, that has the potential of forcing the GOP to
pick a woman as the Presidential candidate in the event that
Hillary Clinton maintains her momentum. I doubt honestly, unless
a major foreign policy blunder occurs, that Condi Rice will end
up with a lot of mud on her face. In these volatile times, that
could happen however.
I've noticed that Condi Rice is keeping some distance, or so it
appears, over a possible fallout of the Shrub's Iraqi adventure,
if it should fail miserably, and the potential for that happening
is certainly conceivable.
Robert Goodman wrote:
RG>The great majority of voting for candidates in any given general
election,
>and even in most primaries, is not driven DIRECTLY by issues of policy --
>or at least, not by the things most of us would consider policy matters.
>Voters are partisan for largely cultural reasons. Of course ideology
>figures in in the long run, and ultimately there are EFFECTS ON
policy, but
>it doesn't swing elections except in marginal cases.
And, that's what potentially turns a possible face-off between
Hillary and Condi into an historical unknown. We honestly
haven't had that experience in terms of American politics in
anyone's lifetime! In my judgement, if things really go
horrendously bad in Iraq and/or Afghanistan, foreign policy will
become a front burner issue in 2008, particularly in the event of
another disastrous attack in US soil, and it could happen in the
course of the next couple of years. Security appears to be the
burning issue in the minds of most Americans, even though I would
suggest much of that is likely hyperbole.
To Douglas's remarks, you wrote:
I agree. In most races, I would guess maybe 10% of the people are voting
on policy issues, though it may be the case that a particular hot-button
policy stance causes another 10-20% of people to decide to vote or not
to vote. Combined, that can swing elections in many cases.
Indeed. As I wrote just previously, there are several major
unknowns, any of which could conceivably occur over the course of
the next couple of years, including economic issues in which
Condi Rice is obviously an unknown quantity. However, there
appears to be a giant propensity of sorts that might suggest that
national security issues vis-a-vis the volatile nature of US
foreign policy commitments and the results of which can be
anyone's guess, might dictate such an environment in which
Americans might go to the polls and vote in a very different way
next time!
You seem to agree that the black vote is an unknown quantity
depending upon demographical information that has never before
surfaced in American politics. In keeping with that, and the
fact that a large percentage of black voters are also rather
conservative in terms of religious bent, that by nature, and
under circumstances in which could become centred largely upon
international threats and internal agitation, that Condi Rice
might be someone black voters might put their trust in.
Hillary Clinton would in such cases, likely be viewed as a 'swan
dive' in terms of confronting such issues with absolutely no
experience whatsoever in dealing with any such contingency.
I am not suggesting that agreeing with Condi's experience is such
a great idea either, only the practical matter that she has been
dealing with it all at a time and space in which most of this has
been playing itself out. Depending upon circumstances in which I
have no particular expertise in interpreting, I would suggest her
candidacy might be the most viable candidacy in the 2008 election.
Kindest regards,
Frank
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