Let me try and explain to everyone why these population numbers are so important.
The Federal Census in 2020 is the most comprehensive census in the nation and it involved knocking on every door in the town and calculated a total population of 6,868 for the town of Lincoln including all the military affiliated people living on the base. Lincoln residents on the base do not cost the town in any way. The Department of Defense covers almost all of the costs a normal town would provide to their residents. For example, within the base fire, police, snowplowing, road maintenance, and schooling costs are all paid for the Department of Defense. So we feel it is important to get an accurate measure of the total number of Lincoln residents, not including the residents that live on the base for comparison per capita purposes with other towns in the Commonwealth. Here is the population number from Lincoln, inclusive of Hanscom AFB (6,868) https://censusreporter.org/profiles/06000US2501735425-lincoln-town-middlesex-county-ma/ Here is the 2020 population number for Hanscom AFB, (2,119) https://censusreporter.org/profiles/16000US2528425-hanscom-afb-ma/ As per the September 8th, 2022 minutes of the Lincoln School Committee, 96% of Hanscom housing is full. >From the following current hanscom housing website, it states that there are 731 homes within the base and 2,375 residents. https://www.hanscomfamilyhousing.com/news/hanscom-family-housing-team-awarded-for-housing-excellence . So, our 2020 number of 2119 is not that far from today's 2,375. Let's try and test the two hanscom population numbers to see which one is more reasonable. There are 419 children attending Hanscom K-8 schools. There 95 Military dependents from Hanscom attending Bedford High School (9-12) So, having 731 homes that are 96% occupied with 514 school age students living on the base not counting any children who aren't yet in school and typical two parents yields a Hanscom population number easily over 2000. The Town of Lincoln's presentations have most recently used a Hanscom population number of 1,276 in their calculations. This number seems way too low considering Hansom has 514 students residing in 731 multi bedroom homes. I assume most families at Hanscom have two parents. We as a community need to figure out a way to agree on basic population numbers. Benchmarking our numbers against our peer communities only works if we all can agree on our own population numbers. So, like David, I calculate 6,868 (total residents including hanscom) - 2119 (hanscom residents) - 7 (Bedford barracks) = 4,767 approximate Lincoln residents as of 2020. The Town of Lincoln's population estimate of approximately 5,608 Lincoln residents not including Hanscom seems way off base and inflated. That number doesn't pass a reasonableness test after one considers Hanscoms own population count of over 2,000. The Town of Lincoln should provide us with their detailed backup population analysis if they insist on continuing to use 5,608 Lincoln Residents as their official numbers as we further benchmark our town governements versus our peers. ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: *David Cuetos* <davidcue...@gmail.com> Date: Fri, Nov 18, 2022 at 18:07 Subject: Re: [LincolnTalk] Community Center - Financial Big Picture To: Lincoln Talk <lincoln@lincolntalk.org> Andy, I thought we had already settled this population debate. As I explained to you in my last email, I believe your population numbers are inaccurate. My population numbers come from the US Census Bureau, specifically the Annual Community Survey. Here is the population number from Lincoln, inclusive of Hanscom AFB (6,868) https://censusreporter.org/profiles/06000US2501735425-lincoln-town-middlesex-county-ma/ Here is the population number for Hanscom AFB, (2,119) https://censusreporter.org/profiles/16000US2528425-hanscom-afb-ma/ All of the Hanscom residents live in Lincoln, with the exception of a small barrack located at 75 Grenier St, Bedford. *I called the Bedford Town Clerk to confirm this. There are 7 Bedford registered residents living in that address.* 6,868 - (2,119 - 7) = 4,756 Lincoln residents exclusive of Hanscom The numbers you quoted in our conversation come from our Town voter registration, and as I have already explained to you, the methodology used is not consistent and probably undercounts Hanscom residents as the Town clerk herself acknowledged to Peter Buchthal when he visited her. I stand by my analysis and believe it provides an accurate picture. David On Fri, Nov 18, 2022 at 5:32 PM Andrew Payne <a...@payne.org> wrote: David, You posted: *Lincoln has the highest budget expenditure per capita among our group of nine peer towns.* As I explained to you very directly when we met in person, and in my followup emails, your analyses use a non-Hanscom Lincoln population number that's significantly lower than actual. With an assumption that's ~15-20% too low, all of your Lincoln per-capita data will be ~15-20% artificially high. It's my understanding that others have given you this direct & specific feedback as well. We are all very mindful of our tax burden, and we all know each household has different financial circumstances. That's why we have open town meeting, and why the Commonwealth saw fit to implement a super-majority (2/3rds) requirement for key financial votes (exclusions, etc.). Whatever our tax burden is (or becomes), it's one that is/was supported by the (super) majority of residents. I hope you continue to share constructive comments and criticisms. BUT, when you post a fundamentally flawed analysis *after* having your incorrect assumptions noted, you force private criticism into this public forum. One raising-Lincoln's-per-capita-consumption-of-pork-rinds resident's view, -andy https://payne.org/lt-disclaimer
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