Linux-Advocacy Digest #819, Volume #26 Thu, 1 Jun 00 22:13:04 EDT
Contents:
Re: Linux User Counts, - time for an update (R.E.Ballard ( Rex Ballard ))
Re: how to enter a bug report against linux? (pert@nowhere)
Re: GNOME.org needs to get their act together... ("Colin R. Day")
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: R.E.Ballard ( Rex Ballard ) <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Crossposted-To: comp.os.ms-windows.nt.advocacy
Subject: Re: Linux User Counts, - time for an update
Date: Fri, 02 Jun 2000 01:10:23 GMT
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
"Drestin Black" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> "R.E.Ballard ( Rex Ballard )" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> news:8h4da0$2qn$[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> > Yup, time to update the link :-)
> >
> > > and how do you determine that these
> > > claimed 60 million are satisifed?
> >
> > Let's see. Linux now has 33% of the server market.
> > 35% of the PC user base would like to see Microsoft dismantled.
>
> Document these numbers.
>
> >
> > > What is your criteria for satisfied?
> >
> > Users that, given the right circumstances
> > (OEM installed, Application availability, User support,...)
> > would use Linux if they could, as much as possible.
>
> That is pretty weak and you know it. and it's
> just an opinion. but we'll
> ignore this for now...
It is weak. There seems to be a gap between the feedback through
other sources and the "browser count" coming back on the various web
sites. We already know that IP Address counters are skewed, but
we also know that lack of winmodem support, need to run Windows
for specific "Must Use" applications, and a general gap between
"I Prefer Linux" and "I Use Linux all the time" is quite evident.
I'm thinking about getting one of those new Gateway/Transmeta
machines as a second screen. Heck, it's cheap, light, and solves
a couple of problems.
> > The U.S. is probably the smallest market percentage-wise.
> > Linux has been doing very well in Asia, Europe, Latin America,
> > and India. India has 1 billion people, China has 1.6 billion,
> > and South America has about 1/5 billion. The U.S. has about
> > 1/4 billion, and had the highest saturation of PCs equipped to
> > run Windows 9x.
>
> yawn.
In the past you have used domestic (U.S. numbers) to measure
Linux market share. You've used metrics that count IP addresses
(AOL uses more IP addresses - passing DHCP assigned addresses,
directly through, than most other ISPs, who use Linux to provide
IP Masquerading).
> > SuSE does very well in Europe. In Japan, Korea, and Taiwan,
> > Linux outsells Windows 98 upgrades.
>
> yes, upgrades. but, include new sales + NT sales
> and ... ops,
But Bundleware presold to OEMs doesn't reflec a concious choice
made by the user. In fact, many Linux users are forced to pay
for Windows and Works even though they remove the OS before
using either.
> not outselling anyone and the article you use for reference
> was for a one month period
> after turbo-linux came out (and we all know how well
> turbo-linux is doing
> these days:
The great thing about Linux is that you have 5-6 vendors, each
coming out with "leap-frog" releases. I love test driving all
of them, but most people have a favorite and snatch up new
copies as quickly as they can.
Actually, a fairer comparison of choice would be the Windows 2000
workstation upgrades.
The one thing that is pretty obvious is that by Christmas, there
will be a bunch of shrink-wrapped boxes - preloaded with Linux,
on display in department stores. I know I want one.
> http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0%2C4586%2C2580040%2C00.html
Several Linux companies are getting an unpleasant lesson in
economics this spring. First of all, when you are the only
kid on the block, and you hold all the good cards, you can
name your price - Red Hat and VA Linux were good examples of
companies that when ballistic. Red Hat made the mistake of
trying to live on it's equity value - instead of turning
a profit, they went into mergers and aquisitions, offering
options and stocks which diluted the value of the stock. Then
they went back to the till for the second offering, and finally
the option holders "cashed out" most of their holdings. I got
burned a bit by these actions.
Some of these companies assumed that because Microsoft (who has
been turning a nice profit for years, is a bankable stock, that
their stock was bankable too. Many employees got loans on their
options, in some cases, the companies themselves took out loans
on their equity value to float operating expenses.
250% annual growth is very good, but when your losing 10 cents per
sale, you can't make it up in volume. Some of these companies went
a bit nuts on mass-media advertising and didn't get the bang for the
buck.
> > I haven't reviewed the numbers recently. By now we should be
> > able to get a pretty good sense of the statistical sample
> > available.
>
> recently is important...
Agreed.
> > It should be interesting to compare Microsoft's market share
> > in markets where it's strong-arm tactics have already been
> > curtailed, and the U.S., where it can pretty much ignore
> > federal judges, blackmail $400 billion corporations, and
> > cause damages on a spectacular scale (estimated at $40 billion).
> > Love-bug alone - which largely caused by a well-known security
> > hole in Outlook that Microsoft assured was plugged, was over
> > $10 billion in damages.
>
> it can blackmail $400 billion corportaions but
> cannot handle a single federal judge?
Microsoft told IBM that unless they agreed to stop shipping
OS/2 Warp, that NOT ONLY would they not get Windows 95, but
Microsoft would insist on a license audite and would publish
the result. Because IBM didn't ship Windows with several thousand
server machines that only needed OS/2 functions, Microsoft was
prepared to publish that IBM was engaged in piracy to the tune
of $40 million. IBM settled for $30 million, primarily because
they wanted to get Windows 95. Even after the check had cleared,
Microsoft waited until 15 minutes before the unveiling.
If Microsoft had said "we didn't do that", it might have been
a bit easier to call it fiction. It could have been the
deranged testimony of a disgruntled IBM manager with an Axe
to Grind. The problem is that Microsoft tried to justify
the act, claiming that it had the right to defend itself
from IBM's OS/2 (for which Microsoft had received a substantial
payment and a dropped lawsuit).
The prosecution was interesting, even amusing. It was almost
as if they were trying to help Microsoft win the case. But
Microsoft's defense was the most damaging part of the trial.
Microsoft executives lied (and later admitted lying, they
admitted to criminal acts, they attempted to justify them
in the way that a murderer would claim that taking an AK47 to
a rival gang was self defense because the rival gang might
eventually jump him.
> You haven't read enough fiction.
> maybe you should watch a few
> movies. they'll be equally as factual.
Maybe you should actually read the transcripts of the trial.
Maybe you should read the actual briefs and depositions.
Maybe you should read the findings of fact.
Maybe you should read the findings of law.
Microsoft beat the consent decree judement by limiting the scope
of testimony during the trial, and then using the lack of evidence
(which had been suppressed at Microsoft's request) to nullify
the spirit and intent of the agreement, the judgement, and the law.
Even today, the Microsoft top executives are issuing public
statements saying that they are above the law, that when
money talks, Gates walks. Even as the Judge was granting
a stay of execution, Microsoft announced yet another tightly
bundled package intended to protect and extend it's existing
monopoly in direct violation of previous findings, in direct
violation of the proposed interim behavoural remedies, and in
yet another attempt to nullify any behavoural remedies now
being considered by Judge Jackson. It is clear that only
a final affirmation of the conviction by the Supreme Court
will have any binding value to Microsoft. Until that time,
it appears that they are perfectly willing to violate every
paragraph of the antitrust judgement as many times as possible,
appearantly trying to prove "We are above the law".
I can't help wonder what it must be like for the CEOs of IBM,
Compaq, Dell, Hewlett Packard, Gateway, and all of the "locked
out" software companies.
> $10 billion in damages for love-bugs?
> Care to document this, acurately?
CNBC TV, about 4 days after the Love Bug was released quoted an
FTC official (I don't remember the name) stating that the Love Bug
had caused over 10 billion in damages just in the united states.
The same number was repeated by Bloomburg Radio the following
morning.
This probably isn't that far off. If you figure that 20 million
people were affected, that each lost nearly a days work as a result,
and that those who depended on the affected users' work were delayed,
the damages could easily go that high. That would be less than
$500 in lost productivity.
> From someone other than an anti-virus product sales person?
Well, according to Norton Antivirus, there are over 50,000
different viruses, and another 20-30 new ones each day. Any
of these could be spread via outlook to millions of users.
These are the obvious ones, that do nasty things and say
"Kilroy was here", just to let people know they've been
there. There are probably another 8,000 stealth viruses
that can't be detected, leave no trace, and are used
exclusively to collect information without being detected
by the user. Windows 95 and Windows 98 are notoriously
vulnerable. Windows NT is better protected, and Windows
2000 is protected from external attacks but not from
"invited invisible guests".
Obviously, a good virus killer is a good idea. It's like
wearing a condom when having sex with a new partner - it may
not feel as good, but you figure this risk outweighs the
benefits of not wearing it.
If there was one single reason to get Windows 2000 and
Lotus Notes or a "attachment hostile" sendmail client,
this would be it.
> http://kumite.com/myths/ and
> http://kumite.com/myths/opinion/thoughts/#000530
I can't help but wonder if the Virus killer companies might
not be encouraging the spread of viruses. Ever noticed how
Symantic seems to come up with cures within minutes of
the release of the virus.
By the way, most of these virus killers work by scanning files
recently written to disk for particular patterns known to exist
in hostile code. If you see a vbscript attachment that says
"open password" (some people actually comment this stuff), you
have a pretty good idea that someone is up to no good.
> > > Are they STILL statisfied or have they
> > > returned to using Windows (dual boot or entirely)
> >
> > Satisfied (as I use it) means they'd like to come back.
>
> like to? like to? this is a working criteria for you?
> How the HELL do you determine "like to?"
> do you poll all 60 million?
Actually, there have been a number of internet polls which
indicate that about 30% of the respondants would rather be
using Linux.
Linux isn't for everybody, but that doesn't mean that it isn't
for anybody. Why shouldn't those 30 percent have the ability
to use their platform of choice?
> please, give us a HUGE break here.
Sure, it's a stretch. My great uncle - Lloyd Mints - used to be
an advisor to the Federal Reserve. He'd look for signs of growth
or drops by counting everything from number of cardboard boxes
being shipped, to the number traffic jams in a large city.
I look at web site volumes, posting volumes, news story volumes,
bookshelf spaces at bookstores, and shelf space at a number of
Comp USA's.
The one thing I can be sure of is that somebody is spending a lot
of money on Linux. Not as much as they spend on Microsoft Windows,
but then again, the prices are lower (because development costs are
lower). Normally the Linux market gets a little burst in late
April, when Red Hat hosts the Linux Expo in Raleigh/Duram. This
year, they didn't do that. It cost something in the market.
Not to worry, the next big Linux show is in July, followed by
one in October (the Christmas show), and one in February (the
Wall Street Show).
> I can't belive you wrote "like to" (well, ok, i can believe it).
Let's face it. You wanted me to try and say that I could prove
that there were 60 million people who used Linux all the time
and used nothing else. We both know that's not true, and you
would have trotted out your famous IP address counter which
gives all the AOL users (Windows-only please) the biggest number
of addresses.
It should be interesting to see what would happen if AOL started
agressively supporting general Linux users with Netscape 6.0
and full access to AOL dial-up lines. It might skew the
count a bit more in the direction of Linux.
I believe IDC has estimated that about 11% of all workstation users
use Linux. I don't know if this means part-time or full-time.
Unfortunately, since I don't have $5000 burning a hole in my
back pocket, I don't get all the details of the more accurate
polling methods. This of course would be last years figures
and would confirm the 240% growth pattern.
> > They may use it once in a while, once a week, on weekends,
> > or during the day until they have to switch to Wine or
> > Windows, or they may be running VMWare. Hate to admit it,
> > but I'm still a dual-boot user myself. I just found out
> > yesterday, that people have been having pretty good luck
> > running Lotus Notes under Wine.
>
> they have much better luck running
> it under Windows natively, closely
> interoperating with all sorts of other
> software that won't work together
> under linux.
You're probably right. Running under VMWare is easier,
and worth the $200 (actually more like $100) but
it does take more memory, and I've been having
problems with some nasty Windows viruses lately.
> I think the sales
> (and much more accurately) the huge scale
> bootlegging of VMWare for Linux is VERY telling.
bootlegging vs sales is merely the process of negotiation
between vendor and the public. The makers of VMWare think
it's worth $200, most users don't agree, so they don't pay.
I pay for, and register numerous shareware and freeware
packages. Many people do. Many others are simply students,
hobbiests, or casual users who just don't have $200, and if
they did they'd be buying a bicycle, a Pentium 200, or a
Pentium 90 laptop.
Actually, the best market metrics for Linux are the
secondary products. Partition Magic, DiskImage, System Commander,
and boot magic are big moneymakers. Even those who get the free
versions usually want more control over partition sizes and
therefore switch to commercial versions. Linux users can even
order it via the internet, pay by credit card, download an upgrade,
and enter the registration number that gets it working. In about
15 minutes.
> Diehards won't give up linux but even they recognize
> the absolute need for Windows. You just watch
> the newsgroups, the second a new beta or version of
> VMware hits, it's posted madly and key makers are very
> close to follow. (p.s., SALES of vmware for
> Linux have been very limp, but there are more copies
> of VMWare for linux than
> any other version running... hmmm...
> free software, even if it means
> bootlegging the shit outta it, is that the linux way?)
I would hope not. I would hope that people would register
their usage, even if at a lower price. Part of what you're
paying for is the support, the service, and the ability
to get help when you need it. If VMWare provides these
things, and people like the product they should pay.
Sure, you've got the high school and college kids who are
squeezing nickles and dimes to get that "boat anchor" they
use for running Linux, but there are a lot of Linux users
who could and should pay for the goodies.
> I use VMWare myself,
> I like to test other OSes.
> I keep a copy of Win98SE in one VMWare machine, I
> have millenium in another, and
> another beta OS from MS in yet another.
Spoken like a true "Softie" - I assume you're on the payroll.
One of the "Magnificent 12?".
And yet, with your strong comments about Linux, you have
not even a VMWare Image of it available on your machine.
Are you still basing your entire argument on your unfortunate
and misguided (unassisted) attempt to run Linux for 10 days?
Could you at least use Linux 10 hours a week for 3 months?
It really doesn't seem like too much to ask, given that I
spend 10 hours/week responding to your attacks on Linux.
> It's an excellent test bed.
But appearantly not for Linux. :-)
> > I haven't updated because I haven't been tracking as closely
> > as before.
> >
> > Some indicators of Linux' growth.
> >
> > In the latest IDC server survey (year ending December 1999, Linux
> > had over 35 percent of the server market. The "Open Source Family"
> > (Linux, *BSD) made up over half the market.
>
> URL?
I'll work on it. I've told you before I read 500 pages per week
and I don't always bookmark to please you. You have it easy,
it's all on one site "www.microsoft.com".
www.netcraft.com
www.idc.com
> > The year before that, Linux had about 28%.
>
> URL?
http://www.open4succes.com has a series of links to market surveys.
www.netcraft.com
> > The year before that, Linux had about 17%
> I think I remember that one.
Yup
> > Meanwhile, the Internet server market has grown from 2 million
servers
> > to nearly 15 million servers. This means that Linux has grown
> > from (17% of 2 million) 340,000 servers to nearly (35% of 15
million)
> > 5.25 million - not bad growth, that's about 240%/year, or about
> > 7.5% growth per month. When you add the rest of the Open Source
> > familiy, the total growth jumps to about 10%/month.
>
> Some URL's please?
>
> >
> > The international Internet User base has grown to around 300
million
> > users, and if Linux had 30% of those users, this would put the
> > UNIX population at around 90 million. Adding in the rest of
> > the Open Source Family, you might even have 100 million Linux/UNIX
> > users world wide.
>
> and _if_ linux had 90% wow! and _if_ 75% of these people converted to
W2K
> they'd all be happier... I mean if we're going to use _if_ as our
only
> qualification, why not..
>
> >
> > Unfortunately, this doesn't help Microsoft much because most of
> > these users were forced to purchase Microsoft Windows whether they
> > wanted to or not, have been forced to use applications which only
> > run on the Microsoft platform (thanks to good lobbying from the
> > Microsoft sales and marketing team - "The Goon Squad"). It wouldnt
> > suprise if someone discovered that Microsoft was using former
hookers,
> > drug dealers, and "loan shark collection agents" (the guys who
break
> > your kneecaps) to handle especially difficult cases. I'm not
stating
> > this as a fact, only that the nature of the pressure seems to be
> > changing.
>
> wow - you are really going nutz aren't you? hookers, drug dealers and
> "LSCAs" (to use the internal code for them)....
>
> >
> > > when they couldn't find the applications,
> >
> > Which is Microsoft's fault, which the courts are trying to fix,
> > and which is gradually shifting. Microsoft has many enemies
> > who would rather create a greased slide to Linux than try to
> > compete against Microsoft's lock-out strategies.
>
> um... yea... right...
>
> >
> > > driver support
> >
> > Most of the OEMs are now using Linux compatible components. There
> > is even a driver for those Lucent Winmodem chips (just found out
> > about it last week). The judge will be unlocking USB and DVD,
> > along with many of Microsoft's other "NDA protected" APIs (assuming
> > that they implement the DOJ proposal).
>
> and what does MS and a judge have to do with DVD? MS isn't blocking
DVD's in
> anyway, they can't - it's not theirs. You are pushing paranoia and
your
> anti-MS zealousy to new levels....
>
> >
> > > or user friendlyness
> > [friendliness]? (Drestin, I'm suprised, a professional
> > PR guy like you :-)
>
> obviously, then, I'm not a professional PR guy then eh? Far less than
you,
> Rex.
>
> >
> > These days, Linux is being packaged as "Appliances". The
> > Cobalt Qube ard Raq are managed using a web interface. You
> > don't have to know ANYTHING about Linux. Others are being
> > packaged as Game Consoles - You'd have a hard time telling
> > where the Web browser/server stops and where the X console
> > begins.
>
> I guess i would have a hard time, care to show me any examples of
these game
> consoles?
>
> >
> > Some packaging doesn't even give the casual user an access
> > to the shell commands (they are ommitted from the command path
> > before starting XDM).
> >
> > And Mac OS/X will be running BSD under the covers providing
> > optional access to the shell environment.
> >
> > > they need to be productive.
> >
> > Which is why the like Linux. Linux lets them create documents
> > that can easily be published, indexed, archived, and located,
> > without the joys of corrupted registries, DLL Hell, and
> > flavor-of-the-month APIs and infrastructure which is punished
> > within 2 to 4 years as "ill behaved" software.
>
> really? I haven't experienced this... perhaps i can recommend a good
system
> builder and give you pointers on how to install windows properly
(D:\Setup)
>
> >
> > It's nice hearing from you again Drestin :-)
> >
> >
> > --
> > Rex Ballard - Open Source Advocate, Internet
> > I/T Architect, MIS Director
> > http://www.open4success.com
> > Linux - 90 million satisfied users worldwide
> > and growing at over 5%/month!
> >
>
> 90 million and growing at 5% monthly eh? WOW, and your 90 million is
based
> on this fact:
> > The international Internet User base has grown to around 300
million
> > users, and if Linux had 30% of those users, this would put the
> > UNIX population at around 90 million.
>
> So, you picked a percentage outta thin air, a nice round 30%. Applied
this
> to some estimate which you provide no supporting documentation from,
a nice
> round 300 million. And this puts the unix population at 90 million,
which
> you claim ALL for Linux - guess there is no one using ANYTHING other
than
> Linux - no *BSD, nothing else eh?
>
> try documenting your claims with actual facts and we'll revisit
them...
> until then... my regards...
>
>
--
Rex Ballard - Open Source Advocate, Internet
I/T Architect, MIS Director
http://www.open4success.com
Linux - 90 million satisfied users worldwide
and growing at over 5%/month!
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.
------------------------------
From: pert@nowhere
Crossposted-To: comp.os.linux.misc
Subject: Re: how to enter a bug report against linux?
Date: 1 Jun 2000 17:22:06 -0700
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, "John says...
>
>> looking at the linux kernel code,
>> you look at a function, and you have no idea what is the input
>> and output.
>
>Read the source. If you cannot figure it out, then *PLEASE* do not
>create patches!
>
The above got to be the most moronic answer ever written on the internet.
This john idiot in one sentense have thrown away everything any
computer science student was told to do in school, which is to
document the function header.
john, i hope you do not write any code, if you do, never show it to
anyone.
what a pathetic idiot. may be you should look at well written
software one day, and see how real software engineers write software.
i feel sorry for HP to have such a loser working for them.
pert
------------------------------
From: "Colin R. Day" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: GNOME.org needs to get their act together...
Date: Thu, 01 Jun 2000 21:21:38 -0400
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> And to restate the point yet AGAIN, YOU DON"T HAVE to do it under
> Windows. Ever, never and no way so you are grasping at straws here.
>
You don't have to do it under Linux, but you have the choice. Do you
understand choice?
>
> Typical Linux crap..All he has to do is find an *.rpm or *.deb for his
> particular distribution and version. Good luck.
>
Not necessarily. It usually just needs to match the architecture, although
mayching your distribution is a good idea.
>
> What if he is using Slackware?
>
> Try again......
>
> That hamster is getting slow these days :)
Colin Day
------------------------------
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