Chris, unfortunately, I think your correct. It's going to take a long long time if ever to really make an impact on Freedoms business. It's amazing just how arrogant they are, and, I guess, for now, they can afford to be.
On Dec 3, 2009, at 6:23 AM, Chris Hofstader wrote: > The Fs sales strategy is designed to primarily get a lot of multi-user sales > and let their coattails drag along the individuals. We would talk about how > GW lives on single users and, for all we cared, those people could get > Window-Eyes. > > On a per seat basis, a single user is more expensive in terms of support and > other overhead costs which, if you sell a pile of units to an agency to dole > out to its clients, the publisher can save a lot as the agency provides first > line support. > > So, the occasional individual who drifts away from JAWS is replaced by 20 or > more at an agency somewhere. FS does not refuse any sales but does focus on > the bigger deals at which they are expert in getting on board. > > I don't know how many people we have on MacVisionaries, MacVoiceOver, viphone > and any other vision impairment oriented Macintosh lists but all of us are > out in the vanguard. We took the risk of adopting a newer technology with a > minimal history. If you talk to most JAWS users, they are not likely to ever > have heard of VO and, to their ends, don't even want to think about an > alternative to JAWS because they can't be bothered with making a switch. > > People who hang out on these users lists are an odd lot (I include myself in > the gang of the weird here) as we spend more time thinking about our AT than > is anywhere similar to "normal" people who only really notice when their > screen reader breaks or their SMA comes up for renewal. Our "gang" really > cares enough to spend a lot of time thinking about these questions but most > people don't. > > It will take a big shift in the perceptions and economics of screen access > tools and AT in general to threaten JAWS in any substantive manner. As I > wrote a couple of days ago, GW had a good shot in 2000 - 2001 but blew the > opportunity so magnificently that it clearly boggles the mind and makes one > wonder if they actually want to compete. > > cdh > On Dec 2, 2009, at 3:19 PM, John G. Him wrote: > >> Well, I wasn't actually arguing that voiceover and nvda are going to drive >> FS out of business. If FS isn't being challenged in any significant way by >> these free screen readers, it only supports my original assertion that the >> NFB logic was flawed. >> >> I don't know if FS is being pressured by nvda and voiceover but they lost >> out on at least one sale because of voiceover. I bought a Mac for home use >> instead of a Windows PC . I doubt that I'm the only one who has done that. I >> have linux on my laptop so that's another sale they missed out on in a way. >> And while right now I have a Pac Mate, next time I'll probably go with an >> Iphone. >> >> I don't know... Maybe FS can afford to lose all that business as long as I >> still have jaws on my work computer. >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Chris Hofstader" <c...@hofstader.com> >> To: <macvisionaries@googlegroups.com> >> Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 1:27 PM >> Subject: Re: Economics and the Mac >> >> >> I can assure you, FS is feeling no pressure from either VO or NVDA and only >> a tiny bit of pressure from System Access. Window-Eyes will continue to see >> their share decrease slowly but will maintain a slow growth in numbers of >> units sold as the market continues to expand annually. >> >> There is absolutely no evidence that FS is feeling pressure from any other >> screen reader. I do think that BrailleNote is beating PAC Mate pretty >> solidly and that OpenBook trails K1000 more and more each year but it will >> require a major tectonic shift to knock JAWS down a notch in global share. >> >> VO doesn't even try to work in many multi-byte languages like Japanese, >> Arabic, various Chinese writing systems and probably a few I can't think of >> right now. If you take a look at how programs called input method editors >> (IME) work, you'll understand the incredible complexity a screen reader must >> overcome to give the user reasonable feedback during input. >> >> FS sells more than half of JAWS units outside the US and is in far more >> languages than anyone else with Dolphin coming in second. Any screen reader >> can do a decent job in the Western European languages and writing systems >> but toss Japanese which can have four separate writing systems combined in a >> single document plus lots of words that sound very similar but have terribly >> different definitions and, unless the screen reader gets it right, a user >> may tell his boss that he loves him very much and, with the same set of >> phonemes but different glyphs, tell his wife that he wants to share an >> umbrella with her. With help from IBM, we got JAWS to work pretty well in >> Japanese and in the modern Chinese Mandarin writing system. Hal does a >> pretty good job with the Microsoft IME but users still find them >> accidentally signing a note with the name of a flower instead of the >> equivalent of Fred which can be very embarrassing >> On Dec 2, 2009, at 1:28 PM, John G. Heim wrote: >> >>> The real deal breaker was voiceover and nvda. Even if you buy the argument >>> that Microsoft might have driven FS and GWM out of business if they'd >>> improved narrator, FS and GWM are facing that same pressure as a result of >>> voiceover and nvda anyway. >>> >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Chris Hofstader" <c...@hofstader.com> >>> To: <macvisionaries@googlegroups.com> >>> Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 8:10 AM >>> Subject: Re: Economics and the Mac >>> >>> >>> Ted Henter, at the 1996 NFB convention made the argument in a speech he >>> delivered that an MS solution would never be as comprehensive as JAWS or >>> one >>> of the other screen access tools from the niche companies because it would >>> never be their highest priority (you can probably find the entire text of >>> the speech online). In some ways, I think Ted had a point as MS may have >>> built something that's "good enough" for let's say about 80% of blind >>> computer users and, with their market cut by such a huge chunk, JAWS, >>> Window-Eyes, etc. would not have the resources to serve the final 20% who >>> would probably lose jobs as this is the area where the high priced screen >>> readers do outperform more generic solutions. >>> >>> That speech was before Sections 504 and 508 which changes things as the >>> federal government may stop purchasing or upgrading Windows if they do not >>> have a comprehensive solution like JAWS. The Social Security >>> Administration, the single largest employer of blind people in the US, has >>> a >>> whole lot of oddball proprietary software which really need the JAWS or >>> now >>> Window-Eyes scripting facilities to get right. If MS put out a solution >>> that couldn't be customized properly and JAWS stopped developing solutions >>> good enough to meet the needs of SSA, about 1000 blinks could be >>> furloughed >>> until a solution was found. >>> >>> It's all a nasty rat's nest in this biz. A combination of politics, >>> technology, fiscal concerns and monopoly like behavior can be really >>> discouraging. I've definitely spent too much time thinking about and >>> writing emails on this subject the past couple of days than is healthy. >>> I'm >>> really enjoying Mark and the others on this list for making me think hard >>> about these issues but I grow increasingly less hopeful with each email I >>> write as the whole thing looks increasingly grim. >>> >>> cdh >>> On Dec 1, 2009, at 5:10 PM, John G. Him wrote: >>> >>>> Several years ago, Microsoft began working on improvements to narrator >>>> that >>>> would make it a realistically usable screen reader. But the National >>>> Federation of the Blind asked them to stop. The reasoning was that if >>>> Microsoft improved narrator, it might drive Freedom Scientific and GW >>>> Micro >>>> out of business. They thought that narrator would never reach the quality >>>> of >>>> Jaws and window-eyes yet it might still be good enough to drive those >>>> products out of the market. >>>> >>>> Obviously, that decision was somewhat controversial at the time. I argued >>>> that it made no sense to think that narrator could be at once too crummy >>>> to >>>> be used and at the same time good enough to drive jFS and GWM out of >>>> business. I didn't anticipate the development of the other free screen >>>> readers, voiceover, nvda, and orca. But certainly, that's another point >>>> against the NFB position. >>>> >>>> On the other hand, I don't think I'd like to switch to voiceover or nvda >>>> full-time. They are not quite up to the standard set by jaws yet. >>>> >>>> ----- Original Message ----- >>>> From: "Lynn Schneider" <canepri...@gmail.com> >>>> To: <macvisionaries@googlegroups.com> >>>> Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 10:54 PM >>>> Subject: Re: Economics and the Mac >>>> >>>> >>>> I purchased my first Apple computer about three months ago. I will never >>>> forget the feeling of complete surprise and joy at being able to just >>>> turn >>>> the iMac on and get it talking within minutes. Microsoft is not to blame >>>> for not having default Windows access out of the box, blind people are to >>>> blame. As Mark said, thinking outside the box can get you into hot >>>> water. >>>> A few years ago on a blindness-related list, I made the cataclysmic >>>> mistake >>>> of expressing my wish that some day, windows would be accessible out of >>>> the >>>> box. You would not believe the hate mail I received from tons of blind >>>> people basically saying that I wanted a free lunch, I was ungrateful for >>>> all >>>> the hard work and research of the screen reader companies, etc. etc. >>>> Honestly, it was totally shocking to me that I would get such ire for >>>> simply >>>> suggesting that we ought to have access to something our sighted peers >>>> take >>>> for granted without having to pay thousands of dollars extra. But, being >>>> on >>>> this list and seeing all the other blind switchers out there, I feel at >>>> least a tiny bit vindicated, as blind people are starting to see the >>>> benefits of universal access. I really think it is the young blind >>>> people >>>> who are going to demand universal access, at least I hope so. They are >>>> the >>>> ones who are going to benefit most from being able to buy an iPhone or >>>> iPod >>>> Touch like their peers and just start using the thing, and they are >>>> hopefully going to demand more of that. With chips being so cheap now, >>>> there is absolutely no reason why universal access cannot be built right >>>> into things. The best thing we can all do is to spread the word far and >>>> wide about what Apple has been able to accomplish with their products and >>>> make them an example of what can be. >>>> >>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 9:27 PM, Richie Gardenhire wrote: >>>> >>>>> I have changed the subject line to more reflect on the discussion at >>>>> hand. If Apple can set aside resources to make their Mac computers >>>>> universally marketed across the board, there is no reason why >>>>> Microsoftshouldn't, (and they definitely have the resources and the >>>>> technical expertise throughout the company) to do so. And if it >>>>> brings the prices down, and Microsoft does, for example, develop a >>>>> mechanism by which Windows can be installed out of the box without >>>>> sighted assistance, companies such as Freedom Scientific would then be >>>>> forced to either go with the trend; otherwise, they would lose their >>>>> economic dolars; after all, isn't that what competition for tax >>>>> dollars and marketshare is all about? In my humble opinion, for what >>>>> it's worth, the only reason Freedom Scientific survives in the market >>>>> is because they have contracted with some state agencies and >>>>> government entities, and we bare the brunt of the expense ineirectly. >>>>> I paid less for my car than I have for braille displays costing $8000 >>>>> to $12,000 dollars at a time. In Alaska, for example, the biggest >>>>> majority of vision loss occurs in the elderly population and baby >>>>> boomers who are about to reach retirement age. We have no school for >>>>> the blind in Alaska; therefore, if parents want to send their blind >>>>> kids off to a residential school, they would have to send them >>>>> Stateside, which costs the state thousands of dollars which they could >>>>> probably find other revenues to use elsewhere.There are a handful of >>>>> us who are blind and visually-impaired Macusers, but that numberis >>>>> increasing, as the word about VoiceOver gets out. Richie Gardenhire, >>>>> Anchorage, Alaska. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 1:21 PM, carlene knight wrote: >>>>> >>>>> I know that the companies take huge advantage of the fact that they >>>>> have a guaranteed nitch and can charge whatever they want. That's why >>>>> I will not upgrade my JAWS SMA. For one thing I don't need it and >>>>> secondly, I don't want to pay that kind of price for an upgrade, but >>>>> FS knows that they can get away with it because of a guaranteed >>>>> market. I'm not saying things could not change, but simply stating >>>>> that you can't get JAWS or a Braille display from a home electronics >>>>> ore software store, and I wouldn't expect to happen any time soon if >>>>> ever. In their eyes, why should They bother as they won't sell enough >>>>> of them to make it worth their while. There is a cell phone put out >>>>> by Capital Accessibility in Europe. I've seen one and it's no big >>>>> deal. The speech is great, but there is no camera, digital screen, or >>>>> anything that might ad a bit of a price to the phone. It's built like >>>>> a brick, but it is over $500 and though the speech is clear, it's very >>>>> robotic. Tell me that's not ridiculous? I don't know that agencies >>>>> are responsible for this one, but the phone is so tailored to our >>>>> needs that somebody will buy it. Not me. Granted, if more people >>>>> were learning braille and speech software as they were dealing with >>>>> macular degeneration, and there was a big enough demand for it, things >>>>> might come down a bit. That's great about the scanner. I'd better >>>>> stop typing now as I am misspelling more things than I am typing >>>>> correctly and am about to throw this keyboard, though it's not at fault. >>>>> >>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 1:46 PM, Richie Gardenhire wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> With all due respect, that argument has been used time and time >>>>>> again. To that, I say this: the best example of a product that has >>>>>> gone down in price because of the acceptance of it by the sighted >>>>>> community, is the optical scanner, which was originally intended for >>>>>> use by the blind for scanning newspapers, magazines, and othr >>>>>> documents in their computers or reading machines. Back then, you had >>>>>> to pay thousands of dolars for the machine, and ys, state agencies >>>>>> bought it for us, if we were lucky. Now, one can buy a scanner and to >>>>>> a certain extent, software for scanning pictures, text, and other >>>>>> document forms into one's PC, at a fraction of the cost it was in the >>>>>> 1970's. The point here is that it found a marketable niche among the >>>>>> sighted community, and once they were mass-produced, prices started >>>>>> coming down and people could afford said scanners. While braille >>>>>> displays are another issue, there are companies who are working to >>>>>> make even displays more affordable and accepting to the universal >>>>>> design market. In the 1980's, Apple tried an experiment, using an >>>>>> ordinary, dot matrix printer, to produce braille. It wasn't the best >>>>>> quality braille, but it was an experiment that, had it been popular, >>>>>> might have flown. Richie Gardenhire, Anchorage, Alaska. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 11:50 AM, carlene knight wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> Unfortunately you have to be realistic though. I agree with you in a >>>>>> sense, but going into a store and buying JAWS or Window Eyes off of >>>>>> the shelf? That would be nice? that's one reason I like the Mac and >>>>>> accessories. The people in the Mac and Apple stores will likely not >>>>>> be trained for extensive use with Vo, but they should be able to make >>>>>> sure it works. Try going into a Best Buy >>>>>> and asking them if JFW works. We probably make up less than 10% of >>>>>> the population so it isn't going to happen. It would still be >>>>>> expensive, and that's why I needed the agency to buy it for me. Again >>>>>> don't get me wrong, in a perfect world that might happen, but we all >>>>>> know the world is far from perfect. I'm not trying to defend anybody >>>>>> necessarily, and I don't consider myself dependent because I need >>>>>> assistance from them. I got my own jobs, take care of myself, go >>>>>> where I need to go etc. A good organization helps people become >>>>>> independent. I agree that whenever possible, we should do for >>>>>> ourselves and not be too dependent on anybody, agencies included. >>>>>> >>>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 12:23 PM, Richie Gardenhire wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> And for this reason, I feel that many state agencies, (Alaska's, >>>>>>> being >>>>>>> one of them)will be cutting back services, in favor of other things >>>>>>> and as Mark so eloquently pointed out, the elderly, the poor, and the >>>>>>> disabled, will be hurt first. I know thisis a different subject line >>>>>>> from what was originally intended, and I apologize for that, but I >>>>>>> will say one more thing on this, and that is that I'm in favor of >>>>>>> universal design so that blind people can walk into any store and >>>>>>> purchase off-the-shelf software and get it working and we not be >>>>>>> forced to be co-dependent on state agencies to purchase our stuff. I >>>>>>> guess, in a way, I'm against state agencies for the reasons I stated >>>>>>> above. Richie Gardenhire, Anchorage, Alaska. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 10:32 AM, carlene knight wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Hi Mark: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I certainly don't hold a grudge as everybody is entitled to their >>>>>>> opinion. However, if it weren't for the Commission for the blind >>>>>>> here >>>>>>> in Oregon, there is no way that I could perform the job I was hired >>>>>>> for. I had to have a programmer write JAWS scripts so that I could >>>>>>> get to the buttons, read the drop down boxes that just had graphics >>>>>>> for names, etc. I couldn't have afforded the thousands of dollars >>>>>>> that >>>>>>> has costed. He is working as we speak since the company I work for >>>>>>> has changed software and everything we had done in the past regarding >>>>>>> the original software is now null and void. I could have not >>>>>>> afforded >>>>>>> a Braille display at about 12,000 dollars. I can say with certainty >>>>>>> that there are few if any companies that would provide any of these >>>>>>> services. Unfortunately many government funded agencies, including >>>>>>> the Oregon Commission for the blind do know little about Mac >>>>>>> accessibility as they have contracts with certain vendors, and, face >>>>>>> it,whether we like it or not, a majority of companies still use >>>>>>> Windows based software. My husband and I both decided on our own to >>>>>>> try the Mac, and though I've had some problems, I'm glad I did. I've >>>>>>> learned it without an instructor. We nearly lost our Commission last >>>>>>> summer so when I hear people talking about how we shouldn't have >>>>>>> government agencies such as this, I have to disagree though they do >>>>>>> have their problems. Yes, some people do rely on others to much, but >>>>>>> not all of us do. Like you, I grew up in the public school system in >>>>>>> a rural area. I was born blind also. I'll get off my soap box now. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 10:51 AM, Mark BurningHawk Baxter wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> You, and I to a lesser extent, and others are the exception. I was >>>>>>>> born blind, didn't go to any institutions for the blind, was raised >>>>>>>> as >>>>>>>> an only child, mostly in rural Vermont with minimal help from state >>>>>>>> agencies. Graduated from Dartmouth when I was 20, again with >>>>>>>> minimal >>>>>>>> if any help from agencies--didn't have my first experience with any >>>>>>>> agencies or institutions for the blind until I was 24, when the >>>>>>>> Carroll Center was offering a medical transcription course and I >>>>>>>> needed another, safer place to be. They kicked me out of their >>>>>>>> dorm, >>>>>>>> making me homeless, after six weeks there. Rehab flatly refused to >>>>>>>> support me and my music career in any way, and pressured me to go to >>>>>>>> the Carroll Center in the first place, then pressured me to get >>>>>>>> therapy and reform my ways when they made me homeless. I only >>>>>>>> started >>>>>>>> cautiously learning how to deal with the agencies in 2007, when it >>>>>>>> became clear that my failing hearing was going to force me out of >>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>> transcription career I'd had for 13+ years. I learned Jaws and >>>>>>>> Windows essentially by myself, as I've always been good with tech. >>>>>>>> Even now, while I may have learned a little about how to get along >>>>>>>> with the agencies and get what I need, it's a very uneasy truce at >>>>>>>> best./ I hope to be starting a job at another institution for the >>>>>>>> blind soon, but this time as a trainer, not a student, which >>>>>>>> hopefully >>>>>>>> will turn out better. You can see why I advocate for the abolition >>>>>>>> of >>>>>>>> such systems. They do not foster independence of thinking, and tend >>>>>>>> to punish outside-the-box people, in my experience. I do realize >>>>>>>> that >>>>>>>> people blinded later in life may not adapt as fully as those born >>>>>>>> blind; I'm learning that as I lose my hearing, so I have the >>>>>>>> privilege >>>>>>>> of seeing both sides of the coin, but think about what that >>>>>>>> implies-- >>>>>>>> that the pressure on those whose world has already been blasted by >>>>>>>> losing their sight will essentially become putty in the hands of >>>>>>>> high- >>>>>>>> pressure agencies who are set in their ways. The system seems to >>>>>>>> punish at both ends--if you're too independent, you're pressured to >>>>>>>> conform; if you're new to blindness, you're taught not to think for >>>>>>>> yourself. Hell, I didn't even do mobility orienting stuff until >>>>>>>> last >>>>>>>> year, when Rehab here in CA suggested I ry it, and I decided, in the >>>>>>>> interests of keeping the peace, what the heck; my mobility teacher >>>>>>>> quickly realized that there was very little, beyond the immediate >>>>>>>> rehearsing of directions, that she could improve upon what I and my >>>>>>>> dog were already going. Since I got Trekker, that's even more so; >>>>>>>> now >>>>>>>> that Trekker is temporarily broken, I truly feel the loss. :) I >>>>>>>> don't >>>>>>>> see how the agencies really have done me any good, other than in the >>>>>>>> purely material realm, and if I weren't as articulate as I am about >>>>>>>> stating my needs, and as forceful as I am about what I need, which >>>>>>>> most people are not, even that gain might be minimal, and even now >>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>> damage is significant. So, that's where my beef with the system(s) >>>>>>>> comes in; sorry if that makes it a personal grudge, but there you >>>>>>>> are >>>>>>>> then. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Mark BurningHawk Baxter >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Skype and Twitter: BurningHawk1969 >>>>>>>> MSN: burninghawk1...@hotmail.com >>>>>>>> My home page: >>>>>>>> http://MarkBurningHawk.net/ >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>>>>>> To post to this group, send email to >>>>>>>> macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>>>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>>>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>>>>>>> . >>>>>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>>>>>>> . >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> >>>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>>>>> To post 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