====================================================================== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. ======================================================================
I'm totally out of line. This is my 7th post, AND MY LAST. But what Richard Seymour wrote : >>"It's not easy to say, since open support for the Islamists hasn't really been encouraged under Ben Ali. When they stood as independents in the 1989 election, it's estimated that they had almost a third of the vote. Since then, they've been systematically hunted down," is not accurate. Once An(l)-Nahda (meaning "renaissance"/"rebirth" in Arabic, an interesting name as it was used by Arabic secularists to define a pro-"enlightenment" cultural movement in the 19th century) became banned, it fielded "independent" candidates that totaled ... 15% of the vote (not one third). And that was in 1988. Since then, the Algerian civil war has passed by (with its horrific massacres), and in 2011, it is doubtful An-Nahda will get more than 15% of the vote (if even that much). The only issue that can gain them points is that of Tunisia's relation with Israel. Most Tunisians are ardent pro-Palestinians and if the new regime doesn't cut off relations with Israel, then that might give An-Nahda a boost. Otherwise, I don't see "moderate Islamists" (which is how An-Nahda now chooses to describe itself) gaining more than 10-1% of the popular vote. Tunisians will vote for Social Democratic parties, such as the Progressive Democratic Party or the Union for Justice and Labour. In fact, both these parties now have ministers in the new "national unity" government. The old, hard-core CDR will still garner around 25% of the vote. That's just my personal hunch. I could be completely wrong of course. But since I'm not betting any money ... ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
