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On 18/01/2011 00:37, Dan wrote:been encouraged under Ben Ali. > is not accurate. Once An(l)-Nahda (meaning "renaissance"/"rebirth" in Arabic, > an interesting name as it was used by Arabic secularists to define a > pro-"enlightenment" cultural movement in the 19th century) became banned, > it fielded "independent" candidates that totaled ... 15% of the vote (not > one third). Sorry Dan, I am aware that the officially acknowledged result was closer to 14%. Francois Burgat & William Howell's 'The Islamic Movement in Africa' argues that the true result was plausibly closer to 30-32%. This may be misleading. They take their cue from interviews with leading Islamists in An Nahda. But given the fact that the Islamists were banned, and given that the government rigged the vote, it would seem plausible that their true level of support was undercounted. > And that was in 1988. I'm pretty sure it was 1989 when these elections were held: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_general_election,_1989 > Since then, the Algerian civil war has passed by > (with its horrific massacres), and in 2011, it is doubtful An-Nahda will > get more than 15% of the vote (if even that much). Oh, I think that's probably right. Even if they were permitted to stand, they're not in the same shape they once were. > Tunisians will vote for Social Democratic parties, such as the Progressive > Democratic Party or the Union for Justice and Labour. > In fact, both these parties now have ministers in the new "national unity" > government. The old, hard-core CDR will still garner around 25% of the vote. > That's just my personal hunch. I could be completely wrong of course. But > since > I'm not betting any money ... That's an interesting assessment. Why do you say 25% for the CDR? I'd be interested to know what you think the social base is for the CDR today? -- *Richard Seymour* Writer, blogger and PhD candidate Email: leninstombb...@googlemail.com Website: http://www.leninology.blogspot.com Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/leninology Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Seymour_(writer) Book 1: http://www.versobooks.com/books/307-the-liberal-defence-of-murder Book 2: http://www.zero-books.net/obookssite/book/detail/1107/The-Meaning-of-David-Cameron ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
