If the entire world is sitting at 170,000 cases right now I find it extraordinarily unlikely that the US alone will have 10x that number in 4 weeks. Especially with China already over the hump and having seen zero new cases yesterday. Yes I assume the Chinese are either lying about no new cases or they've stopped testing new people but I do expect that they're over the hump and cases are declining... -Curt
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 10:56:17 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes <mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000. We don't have that many hospital beds. Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well.... _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com