If the entire world is sitting at 170,000 cases right now I find it
extraordinarily unlikely that the US alone will have 10x that number in 4
weeks. Especially with China already over the hump and having seen zero new
cases yesterday.
Yes I assume the Chinese are either lying about no new cases or they've stopped
testing new people but I do expect that they're over the hump and cases are
declining...
-Curt
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 10:56:17 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes
<mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and
for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving
care already, and the case load is still climbing.
At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million
infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or
so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000.
We don't have that many hospital beds.
Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well....
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