The shutdown definitely helped slow the virus down where it was implemented. Iowa vs Illinois border counties are quite similar and infection rates diverged nicely after Illinois shut down and Iowa did not.
But it is too draconian to sustain. Testing and tracing does not cost nearly as much as shutting the economy down. If we dont test, we won't be able to do targeted intervention and get everyone else back to work. Iowa study summary: #Iowa 30% Reduction in cases Comparison of Estimated Rates of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Border Counties in Iowa Without a Stay-at-Home Order and Border Counties in Illinois With a Stay-at-Home Order Question Was the stay-at-home order in Illinois associated with different rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared with Iowa, which did not issue a stay-at-home order? Findings This cross-sectional study of border counties in Iowa and Illinois used difference-in-differences design and found an increase in estimated rates of COVID-19 cases per 10 000 residents in the border counties in Iowa compared with the border counties in Illinois after a stay-at-home order was implemented in Illinois but not in Iowa. Meaning The results of this study suggest that issuing a stay-at-home order in Iowa may have helped limit the spread of COVID-19 cases in that state. Abstract Importance Iowa is 1 of 5 states in the US that have not issued a stay-at-home order during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. There is no empirical evidence on whether issuing a stay-at-home order in Iowa could have been associated with a reduced rate of COVID-19 infections in the state. Objective To compare COVID-19 cases in border counties in Iowa, which did not issue a stay-at-home order, with cases in border counties in Illinois, which did issue a stay-at-home order. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study with a difference-in-differences design compared daily changes in COVID-19 cases per 10 000 residents in 8 Iowa counties bordering Illinois with those in the 7 Illinois counties bordering Iowa before and after Illinois issued a stay-at-home order on March 21, 2020. Additional sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for differences in timing of closing schools and nonessential businesses between the 2 states and differential trends in COVID-19 cases by county population density and poverty rates. Exposures Issuing a stay-at-home order. Main Outcomes and Measures Comparison of cumulative cases of COVID-19 per 10 000 residents in border counties in Iowa and Illinois. Results The total populations were 462 445 in the Iowa border counties and 272 385 in the Illinois border counties. Population density was higher in the Iowa counties (114.2 people per square mile) than in the Illinois counties (78.2 people per square mile). Trends of cumulative COVID-19 cases per 10 000 residents for the Iowa and Illinois border counties were comparable before the Illinois stay-at-home order, which went into effect at 5:00 pm on March 21 (March 15 to March 21: 0.024 per 10 000 residents vs 0.026 per 10 000 residents). After that, cases increased more quickly in Iowa and more slowly in Illinois. Within 10, 20, and 30 days after the enactment of the stay-at-home order in Illinois, the difference in cases was −0.51 per 10 000 residents (SE, 0.09; 95% CI, −0.69 to −0.32; P < .001), −1.15 per 10 000 residents (SE, 0.49; 95% CI, −2.12 to −0.18; P = .02), and −4.71 per 10 000 residents (SE, 1.99; 95% CI, −8.64 to −0.78; P = .02), respectively. The estimates indicate excess cases in the border Iowa counties by as many as 217 cases after 1 month without a stay-at-home order. This estimate of excess cases represents 30.4% of the 716 total cases in those Iowa counties by that date. Sensitivity analyses addressing differences in timing of closing schools and nonessential businesses and differences in county population density and poverty rates between the 2 states supported these findings. Conclusions and Relevance This cross-sectional study with a difference-in-differences design found an increase in estimated rates of COVID-19 cases per 10 000 residents in the border counties in Iowa compared with the border counties in Illinois following a stay-at-home order that was implemented in Illinois but not in Iowa. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2766229 On Mon, May 18, 2020, 2:41 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Peter, > > How'd that isolation thing working in NYC? Over 80 deaths per 1000 cases. > Compare that with Florida, about 43 per 1000, and far less draconian > lock-down / isolation. Why are all those New Yorkers fleeing and heading > to their vacation homes (including in FL)? > > We've got community spreading going on, the "test and trace" horse has left > the barn and is probably a few counties away. Testing, contact tracing and > isolating is a fantasy at this point. When the Chinese Communist Party > isolated Wuhan from all internal travel, but permitted international > flights out of Wuhan to all corners of the globe, those commies made sure > community spread was going on all over the globe. You can thank them. > > Where is the science, where are the studies, that tell us that lock-down > and isolation works? Meanwhile, real life data is telling us that it does > not work. > > Your civil liberties and rights may not mean much to you, but to many in > this country they are essential to having a job and feeding a family. If > you can afford to stay locked up in your house, no one is going to stop > you. If people not wearing masks is too risky for you, then stay away from > them. There are plenty of medical professionals against the idea that the > general public should be wearing masks in social situations, but that goes > against the narrative of fear perpetuated by the main stream media, so > their voice is never heard. Wearing a mask can impede the flow of oxygen > into the blood stream, reducing 02 levels and making the wearer MORE > susceptible to infection of lungs. Add increased touching of the face and > mask due to discomfort, and the risk of infection is going up. > > ------------- > Max > Charleston SC > > > On Sat, May 16, 2020 at 10:46 AM Peter Frederick via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > Actually, isolation is the only way to stop the spread. This is an > > unusual virus in that it's possible to actually stop the spread, > difficulty > > is that it can have a long incubation period with virus shedding going on > > for some days before symptoms get bad enough to send someone in for > testing. > > > > This isn't the first time, either -- SARS and MERS are similar viruses, > > just much less transmissible. Another long forgotten incident involved > fur > > animals in Manchuria in the early part of the 1900s, when no vaccine was > > possible. That outbreak was traced back to harvesitng sick animals for > > fur, and was stopped by guess what, cloth masks and social distancing. > > > > The key to stopping the spread is testing and contact tracing -- if > people > > can be tested easily, it's possible to break the chain of transmission, > and > > when no more people are getting infected, eventually the virus will no > long > > reproduce. > > > > My local county has always had a pretty strong public health department, > > and has been on top of tracing and testing since the start -- luckily, we > > are more or less remote here, and full state wide social restrictions > were > > in place before the first cases showed up. The result is that we have > just > > over 200 cases for 200,000 people and two deaths. Case number per day is > > down to five or six, and I believe nearly all of them were people in > > observation for exposure. > > > > Couple people refused to self isolate and were promptly served with stay > > at home orders by a local judge -- we still have quarantine laws on the > > books from when there were no antibiotics or vaccines for common > illnesses > > like scarlet fever a measles. > > > > while it may seem very harsh and draconian, the lockdown in China worked. > > You have to understand the filtering of news there, but I suspect the > > reported case numbers are reasonably accurate -- if the Parry lies too > > much, they will be overthrown, it's how things work in China. South > Korea > > and Tiawan, both of whom had serious issues with SARS in the 90s, have > very > > low cases as well. > > > > One point more -- nightclubs opened in Seol, and at least 126 cases have > > come from a single club over a couple nights. This is what I'm worried > > about with the lunatics that squeal about how their "rights" are being > > infringed by public health measures. Only takes one jerk ignoring the > > health rules to infect hundreds of people in close quarters. Ditto for > the > > boob that insisted he run his barber shop in spite of the shutdown -- > he's > > now positive and who knows how many of his clients are too as a result. > > > > I definitely error on the side of caution, it's why I've driven a Benz > for > > decades. Hardly an imposition to wear a mask compared to getting really, > > really sick or killing my elderly mother. We are not all isolated > > sovereign states with no responsibilities, we are a community and need to > > remember everyone is entitled to what we are. Or as my Grandmother used > to > > say "You have your rights, true -- until they run into mine, and you are > > standing on my toes" > > > > Far too many people who blow on about their "right" to do whatever they > > want are notably absent when it's time to take responsibility for the > > results of their actions. > > > > > _______________________________________ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
