Carl,

> And I’d deprioritize short flights near main hubs that can be driven within 3 
> hours. Especially if it’s a high frequency route. DEN-COS you are at risk.

You nailed it. For last Friday through today, United’s biggest cut was DEN-COS 
with 11 round-trips:

http://www.gcmap.com/featured/20251109 <http://www.gcmap.com/featured/20251109>

> Evaluating individual flights on economics can be a bad idea if there are 
> knock on impacts on connecting flights, and of course also depends on how the 
> economics are allocated in the accounting system. That SMF-SFO flight may get 
> low accounting credits but feed all its pax to HND TPE PVG FRA LHR HKG.


One of my friends used to work on the system at United which figured out what 
to cut or delay in reaction to flow-control situations. It looked at those 
second-order effects as well as crew and aircraft issues, e.g., "X is a 
low-revenue flight be if we cut that we won’t have a crew in place to operate 
high-revenue Y."

 -- Karl


> On Nov 9, 2025, at 2:01 PM, Carl Stork via Mifnet <[email protected]> 
> wrote:
> 
> Do you think that’s the wrong way to decide what to cut?
>  
> If the systems allow, I’d do a couple of additional things. I’d look at how 
> many connecting passengers are impacted and whether there are reasonable 
> alternatives for them. And I’d deprioritize short flights near main hubs that 
> can be driven within 3 hours. Especially if it’s a high frequency route. 
> DEN-COS you are at risk.
>  
> Evaluating individual flights on economics can be a bad idea if there are 
> knock on impacts on connecting flights, and of course also depends on how the 
> economics are allocated in the accounting system. That SMF-SFO flight may get 
> low accounting credits but feed all its pax to HND TPE PVG FRA LHR HKG.
>  
> From: RWM--- via Mifnet <[email protected] 
> <mailto:[email protected]>> 
> Sent: Sunday, November 9, 2025 1:21 PM
> To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
> Cc: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
> Subject: [Mifnet 🛰 74689] Re: Flight Cancellations
>  
> A practical opportunist would cut the targeted x% of flights expected to 
> generate the worst economics during the slack period prior to ramp up to the 
> holiday peak period, while hoping to disadvantage the least number of 
> customers.
>  
> - RWM
>  
> 
> 
> On Nov 9, 2025, at 02:24, Karl L. Swartz via Mifnet <[email protected] 
> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
> 
> My guess is that 20% is MSU: Making Shit Up.
>  
>  -- Karl.
>  
> 
> 
> On Nov 8, 2025, at 2:49 PM, ATHGroup--- via Mifnet <[email protected] 
> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>  
>  
> Does anyone know how FAA came up with the 20% target?
> 
> 
> Was there any analysis based on actual controller staffing or was it just a 
> guess?
>  
> Michael
> xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> R. Michael Baiada
> cell - (303) 521-6047
> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>  
> From: Doug Church <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> 
> Sent: Saturday, November 8, 2025 13:04
> To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
> Cc: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: [Mifnet 🛰 74670] Flight Cancellations
>  
> Michael,
>  
> My understanding is each airline is cancelling their flights based on their 
> internal business criteria to meet the FAA's order.
>  
> -Doug Church
>  
> On Sat, Nov 8, 2025 at 3:09 PM ATHGroup--- via Mifnet 
> <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>  
> Does anyone know who is cancelling the flights during the shutdown cutback?
>  
> Is it each airlines cancelling their flights based on their internal business 
> criteria to meet the FAA cancel goal, or is it the FAA cancelling the 
> individual flights without regard to any of the airline’s business interests?
>  
> Michael
> xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> R. Michael Baiada
> cell - (303) 521-6047
> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>  
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Revised: 20250507
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