| As ‘pop-up’, on-demand, non-scheduled ‘blips’, ATC cannot plan for their IFR handling within expected controller availability.
Similarly, VFR flights to/from/transiting the 40 airports and surrounding Class B airspace are supposedly prohibited.
 My wife showed me an email suggesting all private flights in & out of the same 40 airports should be cancelled.
That would drive the major contributors wild. Might not be 10% but it would all kinds of symbolic.
Mike Borfitz Cell 206-714-8797 Kilroy Aviation LLC
Kilroy is available for aviation regulatory and safety issues - Type & Production Certification, Continued Operational Safety - International validation & safety matters - Program & system management - FAA STC ODA Carl,
And I’d deprioritize short flights near main hubs that can be driven within 3 hours. Especially if it’s a high frequency route. DEN-COS you are at risk.
You nailed it. For last Friday through today, United’s biggest cut was DEN-COS with 11 round-trips:
Evaluating individual flights on economics can be a bad idea if there are knock on impacts on connecting flights, and of course also depends on how the economics are allocated in the accounting system. That SMF-SFO flight may get low accounting credits but feed all its pax to HND TPE PVG FRA LHR HKG.
One of my friends used to work on the system at United which figured out what to cut or delay in reaction to flow-control situations. It looked at those second-order effects as well as crew and aircraft issues, e.g., "X is a low-revenue flight be if we cut that we won’t have a crew in place to operate high-revenue Y."
-- Karl
Do you think that’s the wrong way to decide what to cut? If the systems allow, I’d do a couple of additional things. I’d look at how many connecting passengers are impacted and whether there are reasonable alternatives for them. And I’d deprioritize short flights near main hubs that can be driven within 3 hours. Especially if it’s a high frequency route. DEN-COS you are at risk. Evaluating individual flights on economics can be a bad idea if there are knock on impacts on connecting flights, and of course also depends on how the economics are allocated in the accounting system. That SMF-SFO flight may get low accounting credits but feed all its pax to HND TPE PVG FRA LHR HKG. A practical opportunist would cut the targeted x% of flights expected to generate the worst economics during the slack period prior to ramp up to the holiday peak period, while hoping to disadvantage the least number of customers. My guess is that 20% is MSU: Making Shit Up.
Does anyone know how FAA came up with the 20% target?
Was there any analysis based on actual controller staffing or was it just a guess? My understanding is each airline is cancelling their flights based on their internal business criteria to meet the FAA's order. Does anyone know who is cancelling the flights during the shutdown cutback? Is it each airlines cancelling their flights based on their internal business criteria to meet the FAA cancel goal, or is it the FAA cancelling the individual flights without regard to any of the airline’s business interests?
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