** What's puzzling is eBay has enough cash socked away that it no longer
needs to be a publicly held company. Raising cash should no longer an issue
but its purchase of Skype increased its debt load and stil looks like a risk
to me.
** If eBay were NOT so beholden to stockholders and Wall Street, it could
keep re-inventing itself without the pressure for non-stop quarterly reports
and the urge to continually announce short-term profits.
** Many public companies pay lip service to being in things for the "long
haul," executing strategies under the umbrella of "maintaining growth" over
a 4-10 year time span, but it's a joke. Financial analysts -- many with a
vested interest in certain securities -- keep pushing for non-stop returns
at levels above the returns for money market funds. eBay's paper value is
linked to its stock price and people will cash in when they sense a peak.
It has one of the most admired business models -- and buyers will continue
to use it -- but the peak is over. When a weakness is revealed, things
tumble.
** Remember how eager people were to get in on the action when eBay it
announced its first public stock offering? Institutional investors got
first dibs, the first big chunk of shares, shutting out small investors.
eBay will survive, but we remember the high flying days of AOL. Now the
chiefs of AOL are finally pondering offering their service for FREE, cutting
their losses, hoping ad revenue will keep AOL profitable on a smaller scale.
That's where eBay could be heading if people really take "alternative
sampling" seriously.
** Hence I admire Google and others trying to chip away. The only way
things can get better is via free market competition. Buying Paypal was a
no brainer. But now Google is going to cut into that with its own online
payment service, which eBay has already said it won't allow as a feature in
its auctions. eBay's purchase of Skype, meanwhile, looks (at least today),
as one of those hare-brained moves in desperate need of better marketing.
** I agree with Claude that the world is better with eBay than without it,
yet it doesn't preclude the real possibility that its dominance can be
brought down quickly if it carries too much debt. Time Warner learned the
hard way that no business model is immune forever. AOL was the biggest
disaster in Time Warner history. If AOL is unable to recover from the
rampant cancellations of its service, it will go by the way of Prodigy and
others like it. An important but short-lived footnote in American business
history.
-koose.
----Original Message Follows----
From: channinglylethomson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: channinglylethomson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU
Subject: EBAY has a Skewed Self -Image!
Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 15:45:35 -0700
EBAY may want to bring back auctions as the main focus of their business but
the reality is that, due to absurdly high auction listing and final sale
fees on sellers, Paypal fees on sellers, and bored and spoilt buyers, the
auction side of the equation is EFFECTIVELY DEAD. Maybe they can rub some
garlic on it and it will rise from the grave!
Channing Thomson in San Francisco
Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
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