Greg Miller wrote:
> Vineet Sinha wrote:
>
>>
>> Greg Miller wrote:
>>
>>> This would require finding someone to fund such a study. It also sets a
>>> very high standard. ...
>>> Certainly not. In fact, almost nobody downloads and installs browsers.
>>> If we're counting on them to do that, Mozilla will be lucky to ever
>>> crack 10% marketshare no matter how good it is or what its
>>> reputation is
>>> like. ISPs and OS vendors decide what browsers people use.
>>>
>>
>> Because of those reasons, we could drop the requirements and make it a
>> stop criteria, i.e. we don't release if 10% of users don't switch. This
>> would at least ensure some consumer feedback.
>
>
>
> That 10% number was an off-the-cuff estimate, and assumes there's
> already a 1.0 or higher release with near-perfect quality. The scheme
> you're suggesting breaks far too easily even with a better number,
> since it would be skewed by good distribution deals with ISPs or OS
> vendors or by a sudden burst of good or bad publicity.
The idea of releasing a product ONLY after reaching point where a
percentage of people switch from one product to the other is absurd. If
any company would follow such an unworkable scheme they would never
release any product. What percentage of people adopted Windows when it
was released the first time (version 1.0)? 0.01% .. What percentage of
people adopted version 2.0? .. I don't know anyone, I am sure a very
small number. How long did it take 3.0 to reach 10%. When the switchover
to W95 happen lots of people and companies stuch to 3.1 for multiple
reasons even though is was much superior (in relative terms) to Win 3.1.
What about MS Word? Word was a niche product compared to WordPerfect. It
took Windows 95 and a messy WP5.1 for Windown 95 for people start
switching to Word. Market share is gained over time even when there are
no competitors customers are limited by other factors in adopting or
choosing a product. How long is the measuring interval. A year, 2 years,
3 years before a level is reached? Catch 22 .. if te product is never
released in an official way, then lots and lots of people will never try
it, much less adopt it.
