My experience and my knowledge of behavioral psychologists suggests that
you can't accurately predict the amount of time most tasks will take. In
addition experience and feedback don't really help you improve your
estimates.
To get a rough idea try looking at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy which does a good job of
explaining the problem in layman's terms.
Want to better job of predicting the future:
- focus on slicing all tasks to roughly equal size +/- 50% will do
- ensure no task is larger than a half day
- count the number of tasks you achieve daily
- use a trailing average over the past week (or similar time span) as a
rough predictor of the number of tasks you will achieve today.
Learn to do this well and you will spend less time guesstimating and
more time executing.
FYI Yes this adapted from what I do with teams, on a larger scale.
Cheers
Mark
m...@grantsmiths.org wrote:
I understand the need to predict what will get done and what will not,
in a constrained time period, when there are commitments being made to
bosses or clients. Otherwise I would rather use the tools of MLO to
get the right stuff, and as much of it as possible, done in the time I
have. I don't think you can achieve that if you are pouring energy
into knowing in advance when each task will finish and which tasks
will remain unaddressed.
-Dwight
*From:*mylifeorganized@googlegroups.com
[mailto:mylifeorganized@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Lisa Stroyan
*Sent:* Monday, December 17, 2012 12:32 PM
*To:* Groups, Email
*Subject:* Re: [MLO] Re: time we spent on tasks +
daily/weekly/monthly/annual reports.
That's a scary thing to do, in my world...to come to grips with how
much I'm not actually going to accomplish. I think that's why I always
resist it!
On Sun, Dec 16, 2012 at 1:28 PM, Richard Collings <r...@rcollings.co.uk
<mailto:r...@rcollings.co.uk>> wrote:
That's my I like the ideas in the Pomodoro technique (which I don't
properly apply) where you establish (on average) the number of
Pomodoros (half hour focussed sessions) that you can get done in a day
(by monitoring what you do get done) and estimate the number of
Pomodoro's in each of your tasks; and then use these two bits of
information to establish what you are likely to get done in a day.
--
Lisa
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Lisa Stroyan, mailto: lstro...@gmail.com <mailto:lstro...@gmail.com>
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Cheers
Mark Levison
Agile Pain Relief Consulting
<http://agilepainrelief.com/notesfromatooluser> | Writing
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