I was not trying to say there would be a reduction in multihoming. I was trying 
to say that the rate of increase in non-NATed single-homing would increase 
faster than multihoming. I guess I was not very clear.

Here is the basis for my assumptions since they are not clear:

1. Almost all home users (not businesses) that are connected to the Internet 
today via IPv4 are behind some kind of NAT box. In some cases, two NATs (one 
provided by the home user's router and one provided by some kind of ISP). There 
is no need for this using IPv6 to communicate with other IPv6 sites.

2. Almost all home users referenced above are not multi-homed today on IPv4. I 
am having a hard time believing that they will want to change that under IPv6. 
However, someone may have a case I have not thought about.

Ergo, I believe their will be an increase in non-multihomed non-NATed endpoints 
as IPv6 becomes the standard way folks connect. 

Now, one thing that could negatively impact this would be providers that insist 
on providing some kind of IPv6/IPv6 NAT. Creating that kind of walled garden 
for IPv6 in the long term does not make alot of sense to me, but I am very 
interested in other points of view on that. 



On Mar 5, 2010, at 7:24 AM, William Herrin wrote:

> On Thu, Mar 4, 2010 at 11:15 PM, David Conrad <d...@virtualized.org> wrote:
>> On Mar 4, 2010, at 2:30 PM, William Herrin wrote:
>>> Because we expect far fewer end users to multihome tomorrow than do today?
>> 
>> We do?
>> 
>> Why do we expect this?
> 
> David,
> 
> Well, I don't know that "we" do, but Joel made a remarkable assertion
> that non-aggregable assignments to end users, the ones still needed
> for multihoming, would go down under IPv6. I wondered about his
> reasoning. Stan then offered the surprising clarification that a
> reduction in the use of NAT would naturally result in a reduction of
> multihoming.
> 
> Regards,
> Bill
> 
> -- 
> William D. Herrin ................ her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
> 3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/>
> Falls Church, VA 22042-3004
> 


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