No sure about this. If you were trying to predict arbitrarily into the
future, the butterfly effect would become more pronounced the further
out you went. But chaos theory doesn't say anything about a system that
continuously adjusts based upon real-world feedback. I don't think
anyone suggested that they wanted to today predict the stock prices of
2050. Practically speaking, all you would really want is to be able to
predict out a little better than everyone else. Actually, making money
aside, it would be an achievement if your system would simply predict
whether, in say a few days, a given stock is going to go up or down.
On 12/5/2014 11:28 PM, Tim Boudreau wrote:
C.f. sensitive dependence on initial conditions:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
I think chaos theory has effectively nuked that idea (thank goodness -
the world would be such a dull place otherwise).
-Tim
On Wed, Dec 3, 2014 at 5:20 PM, Hernán Erasmo <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
This rings a bell...
2014-12-02 23:43 GMT-03:00 Daniel Bell
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>:
> [...]
> Could nupic do this if we theoretically did have all the
features that
> represent the state of the system?
> [...]
"We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of
its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a
certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion,
and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if
this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to
analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of
the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom;
for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future
just like the past would be present before its eyes."
-Pierre Simon Laplace, /A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities/
--
http://timboudreau.com
