Di cnbc.com juga ada outlook 2009 yg agak scary, tapi santa clause sdh
datang walaupun agak telat.
Outlook '09 The January Effect
Posted By: Lee Brodie
Topics:Recession | Economy (Global) | Stock Market | Stock Picks
Optimistic investors are still hopeful that the year will end with a
Santa Claus rally. But maybe it's Jack Frost who can rescue investors?
Is Santa Coming?
Although the term Santa Claus rally is used loosely, it typically occurs
in the last 5 days of the year and the first two weeks in January.
As we first told you Friday John Roque, Natixis Bleichroeder technical
analyst anticipates the market could make gains through the end of the
year. (Click here to see his analysis.)
However, Roque's analysis sparked some shall we say skepticism.
Rick from NJ wrote, "Couldn't disagree more with your guest technical
analyst. The charts I look at show the market unable to get more than
1000 points off its bottom and now beginning to roll over. I believe the
third leg of the decline is imminent and we will see the first number of
the DJIA be a "5" before a legitimate bottom is in."
According to Jeffrey Hirsch of the "Stock Traders Almanac" a Santa Claus
rally might not be the right thing to hope for. Instead he's got an eye
on Jack Frost the icon of January.
Why? Because in 31 of the last 36 years, a rally in January was followed
by a full-year of gains.
"January is the first month of the year when people set their forecasts.
And there's the state of union address and important agendas laid out,"
he says. All those things set the tone for the year.
He might be onto something. The January Effect is accurate 91% of the
time.
Take a look.
Jan. Change Year Change
2004 +1.7% +9.0%
2005 -2.5% +3.0%
2006 +2.5% +13.6%
2007 +1.4% +3.5%
2008 -6.1% -40.31(YTD)
What's the bottom line? As the S&P goes in January, so goes rest of year.
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" <jsx-
consult...@...> wrote:
>
> Roubini: Stock masih turun 15%-20%
>
>
> Barusan di blommberg didalam topik: FIRST WORD 2009, prof Roubini
> bilang Stock masih akan turun 15% ampe 20% pada thn 2009.
>
> Any comment ?
>
