mulai bergerak kah? awal april bank2 bumn kabarnya mulai turunin bunga kredit. (katanya "dipaksa" gitu)
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" <mysanjaya...@...> wrote: > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > Salam, > > Sanjaya > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > recently. > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near 10% > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > landedresidential > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > although > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful increase > in > > rental rates is unlikely. > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has > been > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV recovery > may > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% discount. > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively. > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > properties. >