part 1
Today we start giving our outlook for the new year, and first we will take a
look at the general picture for stock markets.
In last month's analysis for Nasdaq we mentioned a possible jump to the 2300
level, and that's where we are there right now. So, what next?
Here is our FPF prediction chart for Nasdaq in 2010:
Nas2010
(prediction chart made with Four Pillars Finance software)
As you can see the chart is mostly red, so we can expect to get renewed
downside action this year. January is still slightly positive, but next
February we will enter the year of Yang Metal Tiger.
Tiger is considered Wood, so the main elements this year will be Metal and
Wood. This is very much a mixed bag, as Metal is usually negative for stocks
while Wood has a positive influence. Metal controls and wounds Wood, so the
growth(Wood) will be subdued, it is like a wounded Tiger, or say wounded growth.
Looking at the monthly variations: after an OK start in January new clouds will
appear on the economic sky and investors will realize that things are not
nearly as rosy as we have been told to believe recently. At best markets will
(try to) hold up till March, because the FPF index stays close to neutral till
March, but April-May I will be looking for some noticeable downside action.
July-August and December offer the best chances to produce rallies this year.
Expect the moves to be of the fast-and-unexpected variety (Tiger style), sudden
shocks. Thus more volatile, contrary to the more steady moves we got in Ox year.
Given the zigzag nature of the expected pattern it is more difficult to say
where the Nasdaq is likely to end the year. A breakeven year is possible, but I
think it is more likely we will get another down year with the Nasdaq Composite
Index ending somewhere below 2000 .
So for the moment I would stay out of most stocks and just wait for better
entry levels later this year. Metal years have rarely been easy sailing.
Potential major investment themes for 2010:
* look for important news and rare breakthroughs in science, technology and
medicine, also in next year 2011 Metal Rabbit.
* a new wave of protectionism, trade wars, and more economic controls as
politicians continue to increase their grip on the economy (which will fail as
it always has).
* a sudden currency or bond market panic.
* major changes for Cuba, could be the lifting of the US embargo or the
passing away of Fidel Castro.
* the green movement and green stocks plagued by scandals.
* separation movements become more vigorous.
* actions or violence by single individuals make the news.
* expect the unexpected, aka white tiger events
Check back for our prognosis for gold and other markets in the coming days.
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, highwaysta...@... wrote:
>
> Seep! Tku pak...oil naik tp commo turun ya. Biasanya kan sejalan...
> Sent from my computer of course!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "iching_prediction" <iching_predict...@...>
> Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2010 06:20:36
> To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] TIMING AND POSITION IN BUMI
>
> copas dari http://fourpillarsfinance.wordpress.com/
>
> In part 2 of our prognosis for 2010 we look at gold stocks and other.
>
> For gold stocks (XAU index) our cycles point to another flat to down year. We
> look for a peak around June, with bottoms around March and in
> September-October.
>
> Euro US$: Look for a stronger US dollar in the first half of the year, next
> an appreciating Euro after July.
>
> Oil prices: Chinese cycles indicate rising oil prices for this year and also
> next. So we want to keep a good portion of investments in oil and related
> stocks.
>
> Other commodities: Cycles for most other commodities like grains and metals
> point to downward pressure on prices this year.
>
> Bonds and interest rates: Look for some recovery in bond prices , then
> another decline in the second half of the year. Interest rates should end the
> year flat to higher.
>
> Bottom line: keep a good portion in energy related investments, and keep
> enough cash to take advantage of great buying opportunities we are likely to
> see within the next two years.
>
> ***
>
> The first two years of a new decade (which are always Metal years) typically
> generate some great buying opportunities that last for the entire decade.
> Computers and internet dominated the 90s, and during the last decade metals
> and commodities have done extremely well.
>
> For this decade I expect the best performance to come from certain new
> technologies again. Main candidates: biotech, nanotech, robotics, and space
> travel and exploration. So that's what I want to buy when the market falls in
> a pessimistic mood this year or next.
>
> Will gradually become defunct in the longer term, so better avoid:
> newspapers, banks, insurance, manufacturing sector, large "dinosaur"
> companies.
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "b3tonsportz" <b3tonsportz@> wrote:
> >
> > taichi juga di gunakan buat invest:
> >
> > http://www.thestreet.com/topic/1147/tai-chi-investing.html
> >
> > dan untuk trading system:
> >
> > http://articles.mql4.com/518
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Rei <highwaystar91@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Buset...mumet amat! Mau jadi trader apa ahli feng shui? hehehe
> > >
> > > 2010/1/20 <samuel.milis@>
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Kalo diliat dr judulnya. Ilmu ini pake metode ramalan pa ce.
> > > > Logikanya menggunakan 5 unsur dari hari/jam dan unsur yg dimiliki oleh
> > > > setiap saham. Jadi kl BUMI sptnya ambil unsur tanah. Setiap hari/jam
> > > > setiap
> > > > unsur bisa kuat bisa lemah. jadi kita bisa anggap kl unsurnya lemah akan
> > > > nunduk, kl kuat jd donggak.
> > > > Gitu gak pak kwee ceng.
> > > > CMIIW.
> > > >
> > > > Salam,
> > > > Samuel Surya
> > > >
> > > > Sent from my AXIS Worry Free BlackBerry® smartphone
> > > > ------------------------------
> > > > *From: * "iching_prediction" <iching_prediction@>
> > > > *Date: *Wed, 20 Jan 2010 04:55:53 -0000
> > > > *To: *<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
> > > > *Subject: *Re: Bls: [ob] TIMING AND POSITION IN BUMI
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Pak Kwee Cheng, prediksinya pake Astrology murni ya ato campur2 ama TA?
> > > >
> > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> > > > <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > Kristanto Dharma <kristanto.dharma@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > sampai Session 2 Pak Kwee ?
> > > > >
> > > > > --- Pada Rab, 20/1/10, Kwee Cheng <kwee.cheng@> menulis:
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Dari: Kwee Cheng <kwee.cheng@>
> > > > > Judul: [ob] TIMING AND POSITION IN BUMI
> > > > > Kepada:
> > > > > obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> > > > > Tanggal: Rabu, 20 Januari, 2010, 11:33 AM
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Â
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Dear Traders
> > > > >
> > > > > berikut ini adalah update kondisi BUMI:
> > > > > Perjalanan Time Analysis by Astronacci
> > > > >
> > > > > BUMI di perkirakan reversal pada hari Selasa jam 11.30 - 14.30.
> > > > > Reversal
> > > > Terjadi pukul 14.35 Hari Selasa. Hari ini diperkirakan Continuation di
> > > > session 1 dimulai jam 10 pagi. Trend mulai naik pukul 11.15.
> > > > >
> > > > > advise
> > > > >
> > > > > Hold denganTrailing stop di 2800.
> > > > >
> > > > > Mohon Doa restunya
> > > > >
> > > > > Salam Kasih
> > > > >
> > > > > Gema
> > > > > www.stocksforliving .com
> > > > >
> > > > > ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- -------
> > > > > Data posting kemarin
> > > > > Setelah menguat di range mid day, diharapkan besok dapat membuat HH
> > > > > and
> > > > HL bar. Tanda pergerakannya mungkin dimulai di Session 1 awal antara
> > > > jam 10
> > > > pagi dengan estimasi 2.800 harus bertahan di BID.
> > > > >
> > > > > Trailing Stop BUMI 2.675 akan terus naik seiring dengan kenaikan
> > > > > harga.
> > > > >
> > > > > ------------ --------- --------- --
> > > > > Perjalanan Time Analysis by Astronacci
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Dapatkan alamat Email baru Anda!
> > > > > Dapatkan nama yang selalu Anda inginkan sebelum diambil orang lain!
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Menambah banyak teman sangatlah mudah dan cepat. Undang teman dari
> > > > Hotmail, Gmail ke Yahoo! Messenger sekarang!
> > > > http://id.messenger.yahoo.com/invite/
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Sent from my coal-powered phone.
> > >
> >
>
