*Sorry for the late reply.. my bad coz almost during early quarter made me headache..
OK anyway, mungkin istilahnya bukan "bocoran" yah since I'm not one of them & I'm don't know personally with its management. However I could share my view a bit on this stuff.. Important thing about FPNI is that if you see at its business segmentation, it gained more than 90% from Polyethylene business while only less than 10% from plastic sheet BOPP. This was after Titan tookover FPNI at early-2008 if I'm not mistaken, while before they only have 100% of plastic sheet BOPP business. This would be one of the reason of their "turn-around story". 2nd thing is about its Polyethylene business. As you mentioned, this is a very prospectfull business in Indonesia since Indonesia's demand of this products is outpass of its supply, or we normally call it as overdemand market situation instead of oversupply, which caused Indonesia as becoming net importing country of this product. Only 2 companies in Indonesia which produce this product. While the current (last year) company's production facility only able to run 65% as mentioned in the prospectous, right? I checked with my colleague in Singapore who works for market intelligence for chemical & petrochemical company, she mentioned about the electricity limitation which only allows them to run only two machine out of three they had. While in 2010 they already able to run all of their machine and will improve gradually its utilization to more than 80% (also mentioned in prospectous). Further about petrochemical business, my colleague explained, its spread margin (product-raw material) would float on a cyclical trend. Almost all of petrochemical products has more than 90% correlation to crude oil, while the rest is dictate by the regional market supply/demand. And the only way to improve the operating margin is only to operate at higher level of production rate to spread the fixed cost and to be more efficient. Yes, this is an economic of scale business that you have to run at high rate to gain more profit.. That's why during down margin cycle in 2006-2008 it record a negative earning since only running at even below 50% (check its last year public expose). While they don't have to worry on the market since the market can absorb whatever they produce. 3rd thing about its plastic sheet business which only contribute for less than 10%, its production facility even much worse compared to its Polyethylene, it only ran at below 40% (see last year public expose material) before acquired by Titan, while in the near future it will improve its operation by almost double. This would give significant impact on its margin since this business is also a volume sensitive business... About A+ bond rating from Fitch, I would rather see it due to its cash convertion cycle, current/quick ratio, and its financial structure besides its expansion plan... Kang Bagus, pls share your numbers on this issue for FPNI compared to the industry (TPIA, BRPT, or AKPI for its plastic sheet business). I have sense that FPNI is leading way beyond its industry in terms of its cash management. While in terms of business risk on the market side would be very small while on the margin side would still depend on its expansion plan to improve utilization both for Polyehtylene & plastic sheet business... Yes Kang Bagus, pls share more on the numbers & your views on those numbers to enlighten us.. T.o.m* 2010/4/9 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > > > nope, im from a local pension fund institution. tapi kebetulan dikirimin > materi public expose dan prospektus ringkas terkait penawaran obligasi dia > yg mo public expose tgl 14 besok. baca sedikit-sedikit cukup menarik sih. > tgl 14 besok mungkin saya dateng PE nya. hmmm kalo ada orang indopremier > disini saya jg mo nih tentang dinamika harga jual sama bahan baku nya. > karena struktur neraca sudah ok. yg perlu dipastikan cuman tinggal bakal > bisa pertahanin ato ekspansi margin gak dia. trus sensitifitas sama harga > minyaknya gimana (plastik kan produk turunan minyak). > > satu hal terlintas di benak saya, operasi yg rugi pada taun2 sebelumnya > (pada manajemen sebelum, Titan malaysia) bisa jadi mirip modus nya grup INKP > dulu. cost center pada anak perusahaan. seharusnya saat ini gak gitu lagi > (paling enggak di 2009 gak gitu) meski peluang untuk mengulang modus itu > masih kebuka juga krn dia tetep beli bahan baku dari parent. doubt dan > negative suspicion saya cuma itu aja. dia beli bahan baku nya di harga yg > bener gak. other than that its basically a good go. sekilas sih keliatan ada > improvement di GCG perusahaan ini. auditor untuk FY 09 nya drE & Y dan > board baru yg masih muda (Looks like a cheeky Ivy League Brat though!) dan > dia kasih penekanan di faktor kunci bisnis ini (efisiensi biaya). dan > reputasi Titan Malaysia kayaknya cukup baik. saya kira A+nya Fitch di imbued > sama faktor Titan Malaysia ini, coz not even Indika Energi kemaren dapet A+. > Indika aja kemaren hanya dapet BB+ dari Fitch. > > kind to share a bit more of the detail to us pak tom?. > > kalo saya bisa di"yakin"kan bahwa margin usaha akan bisa dipertahankan (ato > malah dilebarkan). i think i would be heavily agree with u pak Tom, this > stuff is bound to hit a higher level of appreciation. if its > sustainable, the price is only at 2.5-ish times Operating Cashflow. that is > arguably insanely cheap. but i keep my skeptical tone though. Haha > > 2010/4/9 Tom DS <tom.ds.st...@gmail.com> > > >> >> *Hi Kang Bagus... >> >> Just one quick question before I share my view on your comprehensive >> summary. Are you from Indopremier? >> >> >> T.o.m* >> >> 2010/4/9 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> >> >>> >>> >>> haha, data annual report, prospektus dan penawaran nya kebetulan baru >>> masuk meja saya hari ini pak Tom.. >>> >>> i have to say its quite impressive. cool turn-around story. tapi >>> sayangnya saya gak bisa ikut placement di Bond nya karena kondisi impresif >>> nya baru berjalan 1 tahun. kalo taun depan masih sustain dan issue revolving >>> Bond lagi mungkin saya bisa ikut masuk. >>> >>> nonetheless, sharing singkat info aja ini beberapa takeout menarik dari >>> barang ini ; >>> >>> - pemain terbesar di Polythylene, dan cuman ada 2 pemain di Indonesia. >>> - kalo emang bener operating performancenya bisa sustain, ini cash cow >>> business karena ; >>> >>> Ini perusahaan dah lama, install pabrik dan peralatan dah lama, >>> depreciation cost nya gede hingga Arus kas operasi nya jauh diatas net >>> income (extra extra high quality of earnings). net income 353 Milyar >>> sementara FFO hampir 2 kali lipat. >>> noted bahwa utilisasi masih jauh dari full hingga gak ada kebutuhan >>> installment capacity baru. sehingga (teorinya) CAPEX hanya untuk maintenance >>> saja dan harusnya gak gede. this is a free cash flow business kalo operasi >>> bisa dipertahankan baik. >>> >>> yg menarik Fitch berani kasih Rating A+ untuk perusahaan yang baru >>> turn-around 1 tahun. mungkin karena faktor parent company nya yg di >>> malaysia. profil manajemen barunya rada mentereng sih. yg jelas rating A+ >>> Fitch implied mereka melihat Titan sebagai perushaan yg going concern dan >>> sustained operation. yet to be proved further though. >>> >>> resiko terbesar di bisnis dia ada di harga bahan baku. margin nya tipis >>> dan ini bisa double -edge, improve margin sedikit bisa naekkin bottomline >>> berlipat2 sementara kalo margin menipis bisa bikin rugi berlipat. tapi >>> manajemen sebelum ini kayanya pake gaya cost-center jg kali buat transfer >>> keuntungan makanya rugi dipertahanin mulu. >>> >>> equity wise, FCF per share 93 perak dengan BV 276. harusnya target pak >>> tom ke 300 sih kena. meski saham sektor ini sih saya ragu bisa sampe dobel >>> digit multiple, karena industri nya boring dan resiko perubahan nya cepat. >>> >>> free float 7 %. tapi ngeliat sekilas sih kendali dari 90% yg dipegang >>> Titan Malaysia sih harusnya align sama minority shareholders. di annual >>> report mereka emphasize ke efisiensi biaya dan ini kuncinya. jangan sampe >>> biaya ini bengkak lagi. kalo iya gagal semua tesis investasinya. >>> >>> i have to say it looks appealing pak Tom., terutama Cash Flow Wise. >>> >>> tapi sedikit berbagi detail. pak tom bisa sharing kira2 operation-wise >>> spread margin operasi bisa dipertahanin gak yah?! >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On 9 April 2010 10:45, Tom DS <tom.ds.st...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> *Yes Pak Jacob, >>>> >>>> FPNI has several expansion projects in the near future, expected to be >>>> decided end of this year. While they also published to sell bonds for >>>> working capital & expansion plan. Their plastic business has been improving >>>> so fast.. >>>> >>>> >>>> T.o.m* >>>> >>>> 2010/4/8 Jacob® <rxbk1...@gmail.com> >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> This question should address to TOM.D.S and Data Sahamku as those guys >>>>> are knowing better about this company. And they are probably kind enough >>>>> to >>>>> share their insight. >>>>> >>>>> Sent from Jαçðß ™ >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> *From: *T_Henz <wandi88ch...@yahoo.co.id> >>>>> *Date: *Thu, 8 Apr 2010 00:16:25 +0800 (SGT) >>>>> *To: *<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> >>>>> *Subject: *Bls: [ob] FPNI - to Mbah dan Prof JT >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> mohon terawangannya mbah dan prof JT utk FPNI ini >>>>> >>>>> thanks >>>>> >>>>> --- Pada *Rab, 7/4/10, eddytj <eddyt...@yahoo.co.id>* menulis: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Dari: eddytj <eddyt...@yahoo.co.id> >>>>> Judul: [ob] FPNI >>>>> Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >>>>> Tanggal: Rabu, 7 April, 2010, 11:04 PM >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Title : FPNI: Titan Kimia cetak laba Rp350,81 miliar >>>>> >>>>> Perusahaan kimia PT Titan Kimia Nusantara Tbk pada akhir 2009 mencetak >>>>> laba bersih Rp350,81 miliar >>>>> setelah tahun sebelumnya menderita rugi bersih Rp562,31 miliar. >>>>> >>>>> Kenapa harga sahamnya diam tak bergerak ? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! >>>>> <http://id.mail.yahoo.com/> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to >>> the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, >>> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that >>> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only >>> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all >>> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. >>> - Richard Feynman >>> >> >> > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. > - Richard Feynman > >
