*Pak Ari,* ** ** *Mungkin bisa lihat update di ** http://www.idx.co.id/MainMenu/Emiten/CompanyProfile/SubmittedOffline/tabid/234/lang/en-US/language/en-US/Default.aspx *<http://www.idx.co.id/MainMenu/Emiten/CompanyProfile/SubmittedOffline/tabid/234/lang/en-US/language/en-US/Default.aspx> *. Biasanya website idx relatif updated Pak.* *Untuk yang biasa pegang bond seperti Kang Bagus, this is a very good deal and you should have a little worry on default risk, trust me on this.... * *But for equity holder, time would be the answer since as Kang Bagus mentioned that this would be a turn-around story (not yet).. I stressed-out the underlined words since we just only saw the jumped in earnings in 2009 while investors normally don't want to be trapped under one time profit which has not proven to be sustainable yet.* ** *However we can see its big plans and just wait until 1H report to see the impact on its operation-wise. Q1 report won't tells enough I guess..* *The key data you should be aware of are on its cash management esp. cash conversion cycle (which I think the best among its peers or even among the chemical industry in Asia...!!!), production volume (too see how achievable its big plan),. While gross-margin & operating-margin will follow..* ** *About the sustainability of its margin I would say that it would depend on its plan to increase utilization gradually, and I would dare to hit its equity at current price to hold and review at least up to end of year. While I'm not in a rush to expect dividend payment for this turn-around story..* ** *And Kang Bagus, would you please to share your view a bit on detail numbers for us to have discussion?* ** *Btw beside FPNI, I have a very positive view on SOBI, ADHI, AUTO, ADRO, HEXA & GZCO. Do I have a companies on those?* *I really like these 2nd liners (besides ADRO)...* ** ** *T.o.m*
On 4/10/10, Ari Sugiarto Santoso <arisugiarto.sant...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > Pak Tom > Kalo nggak salah saya baca fpni sebagian saham dimiliki sampoerna print > pack,20% publik.saya kok tdk melihat nama titan sbg owner? > > Btw boleh share prospektus penawaran bond nya biar bisa tahu lebih jauh > prospek company ini? > > Thx > > On Apr 10, 2010 8:31 AM, "Tom DS" <tom.ds.st...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > *Sorry for the late reply.. my bad coz almost during early quarter made me > headache.. > > OK anyway, mungkin istilahnya bukan "bocoran" yah since I'm not one of them > & I'm don't know personally with its management. However I could share my > view a bit on this stuff.. > > Important thing about FPNI is that if you see at its business segmentation, > it gained more than 90% from Polyethylene business while only less than 10% > from plastic sheet BOPP. This was after Titan tookover FPNI at early-2008 if > I'm not mistaken, while before they only have 100% of plastic sheet BOPP > business. This would be one of the reason of their "turn-around story". > > 2nd thing is about its Polyethylene business. As you mentioned, this is a > very prospectfull business in Indonesia since Indonesia's demand of this > products is outpass of its supply, or we normally call it as overdemand > market situation instead of oversupply, which caused Indonesia as becoming > net importing country of this product. Only 2 companies in Indonesia which > produce this product. While the current (last year) company's production > facility only able to run 65% as mentioned in the prospectous, right? I > checked with my colleague in Singapore who works for market intelligence for > chemical & petrochemical company, she mentioned about the electricity > limitation which only allows them to run only two machine out of three they > had. While in 2010 they already able to run all of their machine and will > improve gradually its utilization to more than 80% (also mentioned in > prospectous). > > Further about petrochemical business, my colleague explained, its spread > margin (product-raw material) would float on a cyclical trend. Almost all > of petrochemical products has more than 90% correlation to crude oil, while > the rest is dictate by the regional market supply/demand. And the only way > to improve the operating margin is only to operate at higher level of > production rate to spread the fixed cost and to be more efficient. Yes, this > is an economic of scale business that you have to run at high rate to gain > more profit.. That's why during down margin cycle in 2006-2008 it record a > negative earning since only running at even below 50% (check its last year > public expose). While they don't have to worry on the market since the > market can absorb whatever they produce. > > 3rd thing about its plastic sheet business which only contribute for less > than 10%, its production facility even much worse compared to its > Polyethylene, it only ran at below 40% (see last year public expose > material) before acquired by Titan, while in the near future it will improve > its operation by almost double. This would give significant impact on its > margin since this business is also a volume sensitive business... > > About A+ bond rating from Fitch, I would rather see it due to its cash > convertion cycle, current/quick ratio, and its financial structure besides > its expansion plan... > Kang Bagus, pls share your numbers on this issue for FPNI compared to the > industry (TPIA, BRPT, or AKPI for its plastic sheet business). I have sense > that FPNI is leading way beyond its industry in terms of its cash > management. While in terms of business risk on the market side would be very > small while on the margin side would still depend on its expansion plan to > improve utilization both for Polyehtylene & plastic sheet business... > > Yes Kang Bagus, pls share more on the numbers & your views on those numbers > to enlighten us.. > > > T.o.m* > > > > 2010/4/9 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > > > > > > > > nope, im from a local pension fu... > > >
