rupanya bukunya Leeb ini lebih cocok buat para investor US. soal real estate, penjelasannya gini (jelasnya baca di hal 179 buku tersebut, coba aja lihat di amazon sample, siapa tahu bisa):
mortgage jadi bagian terbesar dari equity pemilik rumah dan menjadi foundation of consumer finance. burst di sektor real estate bisa bikin panik dan dikirannya gak akan terjadi (akan tetapi rupanya Sudah terbukti dengan kejadian subprime mortgage - bisa salah juga tuh penulis). triger buble di realestate crash adalah bunga tinggi (terbukti tuh di Subprime mortgage) yang digunakan the fed untuk menjinakan inflasi. tetapi rupanya inflasi yang tinggi lebih disukai karena akan meningkatkan nilai realestate. nilai realestate yang tinggi akan menjadi jaminan yang bagus bagi para pengutang kayak orang US. singkatnya mungkin gini: kalo harga minyak naik, inflasi naik, harga rumah naik, maka pajak akan naik (bagus buat pemerintah) dan rumahnya bisa jadi jaminan kredit yang lebih tinggi. On 11/7/07, Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Property/Real estate lagi tidur. > > Regards, > DE > > > On Nov 7, 2007 9:45 AM, Heryadi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > Pak DE Real estate disebut sebut,selain mining & oil. > > Tapi kok saham propertynya masih memble aje? > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > *From:* Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > *Sent:* Wednesday, November 07, 2007 8:47 AM > > *Subject:* Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Analisa DE: Cuma mining yang angkat > > IHSG (wajarkah?) > > > > Percaya gak percaya.. > > > > Sebentar lagi ada yang reply nawarin ANTM nih... heheh... mining > > senyangkut nyangkutnya bisa dipegang long term. > > > > Regards, > > DE > > > > On Nov 7, 2007 8:41 AM, Bandar A < [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > Between 1970 and 1982, oil prices went from $1.35 a barrel to a high > > > of nearly $35. That is a 26-fold increase. To match that experience this > > > decade, the price of oil would have to reach $260 a barrel. In 1970s, the > > > oil crisis was primarily political. This time around, the issue is ceiling > > > on supply - a more difficult problem to solve. > > > > > > Breaking the ceiling of oil supply for energy source can be done > > > through the following: > > > 1. coal, the dirtiest of all fossil fuel > > > 2. nuclear/uranium, which is a resource in far shorter than oil > > > 3. natural gas and exotic fossil fuel, > > > 4. biofuels > > > 5. alternative energy (wind, solar, sea current, etc) > > > > > > None of the energies available will single handedly be able to satisfy > > > the worlds growing energy needs. The inability of energy supplies to meet > > > soaring demand and the wave of inflation that will result, is a serious > > > threat. Unable to fight inflation without risking economic meltdown, > > > policy > > > makers will put all their efforts into keeping the economy growing, so > > > that > > > wage rise faster than interest rates and debt does not overwhelm the > > > average > > > citizen. They will have no option but to allow inflation to reach heights > > > that would have been considered unacceptable in any previous decade. > > > Inflation will lifts the prices of homes and other assests and will > > > diminish > > > the weight of debt underlying those assets. > > > > > > To make money when inflation soars, avoid these investment pitfalls: > > > 1. Cash > > > 2. Bonds > > > 3. Stocks, especially defensive groups (cosmetic, food, retail), > > > airlines, autos, chemicals > > > 4. small cap stocks > > > > > > And chose these investment jackpots > > > 1. Gold and gold shares. I believe natural resources (mining and agri) > > > also included here > > > 2. Oil and oil shares. And i believe any energy related shares, such > > > as oil services company, energy mining and alternative energy company > > > 3. real estate > > > 4. China and India > > > > > > Thats the summary from Stephen Leeb's 2006 book, "the coming economic > > > collapse, how you can thrive when oil cost $200 a barrel." he's the author > > > of "the oil factor", which published in february 2004. at the moment, oil > > > price was under $33 a barrel and he predicted that soaring oil prices > > > above > > > $100 was around the corner. > > > > > > > > > On 11/6/07, jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > > > > > > > > Ingat presiden kita jatoh karena minyak naek (minyak masih > > > > jauh dibawah $100). > > > > > > > > Kalo minyak $300, bukan cuman presidennya yg jatoh, langit > > > > juga jatuh NIMPA KITA karena akan ada REVOLUSI SOSIAL. Boro > > > > boro you bisa kaya, masih bisa idup selamet aja udah untung.... > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > > > > "tbumi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > --- In > > > > > obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > > > > Rei <highwaystar91@> wrote: > > > > > > Saham BUMI tergantung harga minyak dunia. > > > > > Kalau minyak tembus $300, maka anda bisa tambah kaya > > > > > lagi, mungkin BUMI tembus jadi 30000. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
