UNSP Growthnya lebih kenceng, tp bussiness en financial risknya lebih besar dr LSIP dan AALI.
utk kalkulasinya : 3-5 year Growth Rate : 30% Dividen Yield : 2% Bussiness Risk : 1.00 Financial Risk : 1.10 Earning Visibility : 1.00 kalkulasi : Basic PE 6.6 + (10.6 + 5) + 2 = 24.2 Adjustment : 24.2 * 0.9 = 21.78 E 2009 Forecast : Rp 140 Present Value of 2009 Earning using Discount Factor Of 15% = Rp 122 Target Price = Rp 2657 berarti UNSP ratingnya skrg baru FullyValued saja alias HOLD (kalo yg rada konservatif sih jadi Reduce). --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Irawan Sudarman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > kalau UNSP bagaimana, kang Ocoy ? > > On Jan 10, 2008 7:54 AM, kang_ocoy_maen_saham < > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Pake Model yg sama yah coba kita input deh (model absolut PE ini > > sengaja saya bagi disini soalnya relatif simpel tp lebih powerful dr > > PER Model / PEG Model biasa., Model ini digunakan oleh komunitas value > > investing di luar sana. Brokerage lokal sepengetahuan saya biasanya > > masih pake simpel PEG dan PER to Peers buat valuasinya, tp absolut PE > > ini lebih flawless krn rating PE disini mostly tergantung kekuatan > > fundamentalnya, bukan dr nilai rating historikal / relatif ke > > peers(PER Model biasa kan gitu). sementara kelemahan PEG Model biasa > > adalah dia cenderung linear padahal gara2 yg linear itu relasi antara > > nilai fundamental dan valuasi ratingnya jadi ngaco krn terdistorsi > > hanya oleh growthnya) > > > > Basic PE calculation : > > > > LSIP Data > > > > Long Term Growth Rate : 18% (3-5 years) > > > > Dividen Yield : 1 - 2% > > > > Bussiness Risk : 0.90 (kualitas baik, pembibitan baik, pengalaman > > cukup, hanya dengan dikuasai oleh INDF kayanya EPS Growth dy bisa > > tidak terlalu leverage krn INDF kalo mo ambil sawit dr LSIP pasti > > harga diskon lahhh, hehe..) > > > > Financial Risk : 1.10 (a not too impressive financial strength) > > > > Earning Visibility : 0.95 (ada stand by buyer (indf group), salah satu > > pemain termapan di industri ini. > > > > Calculation > > > > Basic PE : 6.6 + 9.54 + 2 > > = 18.14 > > > > ADJUSTMENT : > > > > 18.14 * 1.1 * 0.9 * 1.05 = 18.9 > > > > Earning 2008 E = Rp 500 > > > > Fully Valued Price : Rp 9450 > > > > err,... LSIP is a bit overvalued kayaknya... > > > > harga ini mungkin harga buat end 2008, krn kalo pake Forward E 2009 - > > 2010 baru kira2 level harga ini justified. > > > > tp mungkin saya agak sedikit terlalu konservatif. > > > > bapak bisa buat adjustmentnya sendiri sesuai estimasi dan analisa bapak. > > > > berdasarkan model yg sama AALI masih lebih ada potential upsidenya > > dibanding LSIP, (valuation-wise) > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > > Rei <highwaystar91@> wrote: > > > > > > Kang Ocoy, > > > > > > Kalo Lsip gimana? Dibanding dgn Aali? Trims!!! > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > kang_ocoy_maen_saham <kang_ocoy_maen_saham@> wrote: > > > -Analyst Mode On- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I Myself personally dont think the plantation were overvalued yet... > > Fully Valued Yes but Overvalued is yet to reach... > > > > > > I have this little method i usually use that might not be strong > > compares to the DCF and asset analysis but it comes very handy when > > all i need is quick screening. (but its stonger than simple PE and PEG > > Model, after im screening the basic with these model than i moved on > > to the DCF or Asset-Based Analysis) > > > > > > here is my simple computation : > > > > > > The normal characteristic of our equity market is (under no extra > > bullish condition like last year) : > > > > > > EPS Growth of 10%, Dividen Yield of 4.4% > > > > > > normal required rate of return of our market were 14% > > > > > > and the rule of thumb of "fair-valued" market PE is 16. > > > > > > the simple function then Would BE : > > > > > > 16 = zero growth PE + ((firm's eps growth * growth rate appreciation > > multiple) + (firm's dividen yield * dividen yield multiple )) > > > > > > > > > zero growth PE of indonesian market = 6.66 (representing a 15% > > Required rate of return) > > > > > > the dividen yield multiple is 1 PE rating add for every 1% dividen > > yield (linear) > > > > > > the growth appreciation multiple is 0.53 PE Rating add for every 1% > > growth rate > > > > > > > > > for every 1% EPS Growth there is a function of PE rating > > appreciation by 0.53 Point, the appreciation rating point of 0.53 > > only apply up until the long term EPS Growth Rate of 20%, starting > > from Growth rate of 21% the rating add point decrease to 0.40 Point > > since higher growth also means higher risks and higher unsustainability. > > > > > > this is an example of why AALI is still not expensive at this level : > > > > > > AALI'S Long Term Growth Rate : > > > > > > Historical 3 year growth rate = 40.03 > > > Forward Long Term Growth Rate Estimated = 25% (conservative) > > > Dividen Yield = 5.5% > > > > > > > > > AALI'S Basic PE Rating = > > > > > > 6.66 + (( 20 * 0.53) + (5*0.40)) + 5.5 > > > > > > = 24.76 > > > > > > AALI's Basic PE Rating is 24.76 > > > > > > there is adjustment based on every company's unique characteristic > > that can trim or leverage the basic PE. > > > > > > the formula : > > > > > > the fair value P/E Formula = Basic PE * (1+(1-Bussiness > > Risk))*(1+(1-Financial Risk))*(1+(1-earnings visibility)) > > > > > > > > > -the average player on the industry would have the Basic PE > > adjusting factor equal to 1 in all 3 factors (bussiness risk, > > financial risk, earnings visibility). the more well managed the > > company than the risk factor is less(<1). and the more risky the > > company than the industry than the risk factor is more (>1) > > > > > > but however good the company characteristic compare to peers, we > > limit the adjustment up to only + 20% of its basic PE. why??, it puts > > a limit so that we keep being objective and not "fall in love" with > > the stock. > > > > > > there is a ceiling to the upper adjustment but if the company were > > bad we'll put no floor or limit to the downside adjustment... > > > > > > the adjustment regarding AALI'S Bussiness risk, financial risk and > > earnings visibility goes like this : > > > > > > > > > AALI's Bussiness Risk = AALI'S Plant's is mature and large area > > covering. relatively more stable in its production than its > > competitor. it is the most experienced player on the industry. > > > > > > AALI's Bussiness Risk = 0.90 > > > > > > > > > AALI'S Financial Risk = Debt is very little, financial strength is > > very impressive, the profit margin is fat > > > > > > AALI's Financial Risk = 0.85 > > > > > > AALI'S Earning Visibility = CPO demand is likely to be strong even > > in the days to come, it used for foods (non transfat), increasing > > demand for biodiesel etc. AALI's cashflow were stable and solid so the > > visibilty of the projection is nice and bulletproof. > > > > > > AALI's Ea rning visibility = 1.00 > > > > > > > > > the adjustment : > > > > > > Fair Value Rating : 24.76 * 1.1 * 1.15 * 1 = 31.31 > > > > > > PE Rating AALI = 31.31 > > > > > > > > > > > > Using today price and its TTM EPS, the current ttm per rating of > > AALI is 32.23 > > > > > > that will make AALI Rating only "Fully Valued" , > > > > > > but hey, were not using TTM's Earning arent we?? > > > > > > > > > using 2008's earning inflation adjusted, AALI's PE rating would be > > just around 23 > > > > > > that give us quite a room for the price to keep expanding before it > > goes "overvalued" > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > it is fullyvalued now but the forward value still give a quite room > > for the appreciation > > > > > > AALI's 12 month target = around 40000 > > > > > > recommendation = Add > > > > > > > > > > > > *ceritanya lagi nebak jalan pikiran analis2 di sell-side heheheh, > > kalo saya di buy-side sih yah kasih margin of safety lah dari nilai > > target, belon mo lepas tp ga beli jg (udah dibawah)* > > > > > > hahahaha > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > > "tbumi" <tbumi@> wrote: > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > > "abdulrahim abdulrahim" > > > > abdul.rahman.rahim@ wrote: > > > > > > > > > > 5 hari ini CPO rata2 udah pada pernah > 10%. Ada yang tiap hari. > > > > Yang > > > > > lainnya gantian. > > > > > > > > > > KECUALI TBLA... > > > > > > > > > > Kali ini apa nona TBLA masih bikin jengkel penggemarnya, atau nanti > > > > > akan dapat giliran untuk naik > 10% juga??? > > > > > > > > > > On Jan 9, 2008 4:14 AM, Rei highwaystar91@ wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > Pesta CPO masih lanjut nih...aali lsip naik kenceng! Wah hebat... > > > > > > Enaknya nonton doang nih. > > > > > > > > > > > > ps: No F word :) > > > > > > > > > SIP : TBUMI > > > > > > > > Saham saham CPO sdh kemahalan, hati hati saja karena nanti > > > > ada koreksi yg dalam. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --------------------------------- > > > Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! > > Search. > > > > > > > > > >
