Kang,
Terima kasih! Milis OB memang banyak org2 top quality.
Salam,
Rei
kang_ocoy_maen_saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Pake Model yg sama yah coba kita input deh (model absolut PE ini
sengaja saya bagi disini soalnya relatif simpel tp lebih powerful dr
PER Model / PEG Model biasa., Model ini digunakan oleh komunitas value
investing di luar sana. Brokerage lokal sepengetahuan saya biasanya
masih pake simpel PEG dan PER to Peers buat valuasinya, tp absolut PE
ini lebih flawless krn rating PE disini mostly tergantung kekuatan
fundamentalnya, bukan dr nilai rating historikal / relatif ke
peers(PER Model biasa kan gitu). sementara kelemahan PEG Model biasa
adalah dia cenderung linear padahal gara2 yg linear itu relasi antara
nilai fundamental dan valuasi ratingnya jadi ngaco krn terdistorsi
hanya oleh growthnya)
Basic PE calculation :
LSIP Data
Long Term Growth Rate : 18% (3-5 years)
Dividen Yield : 1 - 2%
Bussiness Risk : 0.90 (kualitas baik, pembibitan baik, pengalaman
cukup, hanya dengan dikuasai oleh INDF kayanya EPS Growth dy bisa
tidak terlalu leverage krn INDF kalo mo ambil sawit dr LSIP pasti
harga diskon lahhh, hehe..)
Financial Risk : 1.10 (a not too impressive financial strength)
Earning Visibility : 0.95 (ada stand by buyer (indf group), salah satu
pemain termapan di industri ini.
Calculation
Basic PE : 6.6 + 9.54 + 2
= 18.14
ADJUSTMENT :
18.14 * 1.1 * 0.9 * 1.05 = 18.9
Earning 2008 E = Rp 500
Fully Valued Price : Rp 9450
err,... LSIP is a bit overvalued kayaknya...
harga ini mungkin harga buat end 2008, krn kalo pake Forward E 2009 -
2010 baru kira2 level harga ini justified.
tp mungkin saya agak sedikit terlalu konservatif.
bapak bisa buat adjustmentnya sendiri sesuai estimasi dan analisa bapak.
berdasarkan model yg sama AALI masih lebih ada potential upsidenya
dibanding LSIP, (valuation-wise)
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Rei <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Kang Ocoy,
>
> Kalo Lsip gimana? Dibanding dgn Aali? Trims!!!
>
> Salam,
>
> kang_ocoy_maen_saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> -Analyst Mode On-
>
>
>
>
> I Myself personally dont think the plantation were overvalued yet...
Fully Valued Yes but Overvalued is yet to reach...
>
> I have this little method i usually use that might not be strong
compares to the DCF and asset analysis but it comes very handy when
all i need is quick screening. (but its stonger than simple PE and PEG
Model, after im screening the basic with these model than i moved on
to the DCF or Asset-Based Analysis)
>
> here is my simple computation :
>
> The normal characteristic of our equity market is (under no extra
bullish condition like last year) :
>
> EPS Growth of 10%, Dividen Yield of 4.4%
>
> normal required rate of return of our market were 14%
>
> and the rule of thumb of "fair-valued" market PE is 16.
>
> the simple function then Would BE :
>
> 16 = zero growth PE + ((firm's eps growth * growth rate appreciation
multiple) + (firm's dividen yield * dividen yield multiple ))
>
>
> zero growth PE of indonesian market = 6.66 (representing a 15%
Required rate of return)
>
> the dividen yield multiple is 1 PE rating add for every 1% dividen
yield (linear)
>
> the growth appreciation multiple is 0.53 PE Rating add for every 1%
growth rate
>
>
> for every 1% EPS Growth there is a function of PE rating
appreciation by 0.53 Point, the appreciation rating point of 0.53
only apply up until the long term EPS Growth Rate of 20%, starting
from Growth rate of 21% the rating add point decrease to 0.40 Point
since higher growth also means higher risks and higher unsustainability.
>
> this is an example of why AALI is still not expensive at this level :
>
> AALI'S Long Term Growth Rate :
>
> Historical 3 year growth rate = 40.03
> Forward Long Term Growth Rate Estimated = 25% (conservative)
> Dividen Yield = 5.5%
>
>
> AALI'S Basic PE Rating =
>
> 6.66 + (( 20 * 0.53) + (5*0.40)) + 5.5
>
> = 24.76
>
> AALI's Basic PE Rating is 24.76
>
> there is adjustment based on every company's unique characteristic
that can trim or leverage the basic PE.
>
> the formula :
>
> the fair value P/E Formula = Basic PE * (1+(1-Bussiness
Risk))*(1+(1-Financial Risk))*(1+(1-earnings visibility))
>
>
> -the average player on the industry would have the Basic PE
adjusting factor equal to 1 in all 3 factors (bussiness risk,
financial risk, earnings visibility). the more well managed the
company than the risk factor is less(<1). and the more risky the
company than the industry than the risk factor is more (>1)
>
> but however good the company characteristic compare to peers, we
limit the adjustment up to only + 20% of its basic PE. why??, it puts
a limit so that we keep being objective and not "fall in love" with
the stock.
>
> there is a ceiling to the upper adjustment but if the company were
bad we'll put no floor or limit to the downside adjustment...
>
> the adjustment regarding AALI'S Bussiness risk, financial risk and
earnings visibility goes like this :
>
>
> AALI's Bussiness Risk = AALI'S Plant's is mature and large area
covering. relatively more stable in its production than its
competitor. it is the most experienced player on the industry.
>
> AALI's Bussiness Risk = 0.90
>
>
> AALI'S Financial Risk = Debt is very little, financial strength is
very impressive, the profit margin is fat
>
> AALI's Financial Risk = 0.85
>
> AALI'S Earning Visibility = CPO demand is likely to be strong even
in the days to come, it used for foods (non transfat), increasing
demand for biodiesel etc. AALI's cashflow were stable and solid so the
visibilty of the projection is nice and bulletproof.
>
> AALI's Ea rning visibility = 1.00
>
>
> the adjustment :
>
> Fair Value Rating : 24.76 * 1.1 * 1.15 * 1 = 31.31
>
> PE Rating AALI = 31.31
>
>
>
> Using today price and its TTM EPS, the current ttm per rating of
AALI is 32.23
>
> that will make AALI Rating only "Fully Valued" ,
>
> but hey, were not using TTM's Earning arent we??
>
>
> using 2008's earning inflation adjusted, AALI's PE rating would be
just around 23
>
> that give us quite a room for the price to keep expanding before it
goes "overvalued"
>
>
>
>
>
> it is fullyvalued now but the forward value still give a quite room
for the appreciation
>
> AALI's 12 month target = around 40000
>
> recommendation = Add
>
>
>
> *ceritanya lagi nebak jalan pikiran analis2 di sell-side heheheh,
kalo saya di buy-side sih yah kasih margin of safety lah dari nilai
target, belon mo lepas tp ga beli jg (udah dibawah)*
>
> hahahaha
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "tbumi" <tbumi@> wrote:
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "abdulrahim abdulrahim"
> > abdul.rahman.rahim@ wrote:
> > >
> > > 5 hari ini CPO rata2 udah pada pernah > 10%. Ada yang tiap hari.
> > Yang
> > > lainnya gantian.
> > >
> > > KECUALI TBLA...
> > >
> > > Kali ini apa nona TBLA masih bikin jengkel penggemarnya, atau nanti
> > > akan dapat giliran untuk naik > 10% juga???
> > >
> > > On Jan 9, 2008 4:14 AM, Rei highwaystar91@ wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Pesta CPO masih lanjut nih...aali lsip naik kenceng! Wah hebat...
> > > > Enaknya nonton doang nih.
> > > >
> > > > ps: No F word :)
> >
> > > SIP : TBUMI
> >
> > Saham saham CPO sdh kemahalan, hati hati saja karena nanti
> > ada koreksi yg dalam.
> >
>
>
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
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