terima kasih pak JV atas penerangannya, saya ada pertanyaan sedikit berdasarkan
daily research KZ yang saya terima juga dari milist kenaikan profit luar
biasanya dikarenakan ada other income dari Chembulk meskipun belum diketahui
apa sebenarnya dari other income tersebut? (bikin penasaran rada fishy)
lalu operating profit pak JV bilang hanya 200M apakah itu sudah termasuk
consolidasian dari Chembulk?
sorry pak banyak nanya nih, baru belajar... thanks before
----- Original Message ----
From: Jhon Veter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, 15 May, 2008 5:00:22 PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re:BLTA - Q1 2008 Result Astounding (hati-hati
FAKTANYA)
Cuma agak harus hati-hati pak Antonius. Peningkatan laba bersih pada q1
terutama ditopang dengan perubahan nilai wajar obligasi konversi ….. Apakah
bisa terulang di Q2,3, dan 4 ??? Jadi perhitungan PER nya tidak bisa memakai
angka disetahunkan, harus ada justifikasi lagi.
Faktanya sebenarnya dibalik cerita BLTA adalah laba bersih yang “hanya” dari
usaha BLTA cuma berkisar 200 M saja (diluar konversi)…. Belum lagi obligasi
konversi ini dijamin dengan saham loh…. Artinya akan memberikan efek dilusi
kepada para pemilik saham saat ini jika para pemegang hak obligasi
menukarkannya dengan saham (seiring peningkatan harga saham). Belum lagi secara
tersirat terlihat laba sebesar 200 M masih lebih kecil dibandingkan kewajiban
obligasi sebesar Rp 300 M…. Weleh. So , must be carefull. Maybe not for invest
anymore on this stock.
Memang secara teknikal BLTA bisa dibeli…. Tembus downtrend dengan vol besar.
Cuma sekali lagi laporan keuangannya ibarat air.
Regards
JV
BLTA - Q1 2008 Result Astounding
Posted by: "antonius martono salim" martonosalim@ yahoo.co. uk martonosalim
Thu May 15, 2008 1:51 am (PDT)
hello i'm a young player in stock, has been long as OB member yet not so
active. but really learn a lot from the seniors over here.
just received from this milist a forward daily from kim eng securities about
BLTA q1 result which is very interesting and today hike +10% is just the
beginning. still very cheap according to me.
since BLTA reports 515% increase on Net Income. new EPS Q1 = Rp 208,- which if
we annualized = Rp 832,- or PER 2.58x at current price 2150. this makes BLTA
the cheapest shipping company in the world since it peers trade at 8 -12x, FYI
BLTA 2007 trade at 10 - 15x.
if we take the lowest PE 8x then we will have Rp 6656 as the target price.since
BLTA has high gearing ratio and volatilty to oil price to half of it ships
(since almost 50% operational ship are contract base) we will be pesimistic and
drop the PE to 4 or 5x then we will still have 3328 or 4160 as the target
price.
please comment i'm affraid i'm wrong. thanks
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