Banyak yg tanya seberapa buruk krisis kali ini dan berapa lama? Orang sakit banyaknya maunya kl udah ke dokter suntik dan pulang langsung ke biskup bisa nonton. Di Medure kalau ke tuan doktor mesti sontek dua kale baru paten sembuhh cepat tak eya..
Untuk perbandingan ini menarik utk disimak dari Wall Street Journal, spt biasa biar koran beken, tetap baca dng seciwit garam dan merica: October 25, 2008, 11:02 am <http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/25/how-bad-is-it-going-to-get/> How Bad Is It Going to Get? For most of 2008 the the question has been, "Will the U.S. experience a recession?" Now that most economists agree a downturn has arrived, the question has shifted to: "How bad will is it going to get?" Economists <http://pull.jpmorgan-research.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/16240-563F/62679\ 303/GDW102408.pdf> at J.P. Morgan Chase say it will be worse than the past two relatively mild (1990-91, 2001) recessions. And the recovery will be painfully slow, too. "From the perspective of wealth losses and declines in real consumption, the current recession is likely to prove more severe than any of the previous ten in the post World War II era," they said. Here's how J.P. Morgan's forecast for the recession of 2008 compares to other post-World War II recessions. The chart is sortable by year the recession began, the decline over the two worst quarters, the total peak-to-trough decline in GDP, the rise in the unemployment rate over the recession, the number of quarters in outright recession and the number of quarters that registered slow growth just click the column headers to re-sort. Phil Izzo Comparing Past Recessions Start of Recession Worst two quarters Change peak-to-trough Change in unemployment rate* Quarters in recession Quarters of slow growth 1948 -3.5 -1.7 3.3 4 0 1953 -4.3 -2.6 3.4 4 5 1957 -7.4 -3.2 3.4 3 8 1960 -2.3 -0.5 1.9 3 4 1969 -1.3 -0.2 2.6 4 10 1973 -3.1 -3.1 4.1 5 8 1980 -4.3 -2.2 2.0 2 7 1981 -5.6 -2.6 3.3 5 7 1990 -2.5 -1.3 2.4 2 11 2001 -0.1 0.3 2.2 3 11 2008 (forecast) -3.0 -1.6 3.1 3 12 Source: J.P. Morgan Chase *Change over the entire period in which the output gap was falling. In all cases, this period is longer than the official recession period.
