http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070130/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_what_happened

Analysis: Najaf battle raises questions

By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer Tue Jan 30, 5:51 PM ET

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Accounts of the bloody battle near Najaf have produced 
more questions than answers, raising doubts about Iraqi security forces' 
performance and concern over tensions within the majority Shiite community.

Among the questions: How did a messianic Shiite cult, the "Soldiers of 
Heaven," accumulate so many weapons and — if Iraqi accounts are accurate 
— display such military skills? Iraqi forces prevailed only after U.S. 
and British jets blasted the militants with rockets, machine gunfire and 
500-pound bombs. Both U.S. and Iraqi reinforcements had to be sent to 
the fight.

It's also unclear how a shadowy cult that few Iraqis had ever heard of 
managed to assemble such a force seemingly without attracting the 
attention of the authorities earlier. Iraqi officials say the cult 
planned to slaughter pilgrims and leading clerics at Shiite religious 
ceremonies Tuesday — only two days after police and soldiers moved to 
arrest them.

If the "Soldiers of Heaven" were able to accomplish all this, how many 
other fringe groups may be operating beneath the radar, especially in 
the politically factious Shiite community of southern
Iraq? Did the cultists have links to other established insurgent or 
militia groups?

Virtually all the information about the cult has come from Iraqi 
officials, who have released incomplete and sometimes contradictory 
accounts.

Based on the information released, the cult numbered in the hundreds and 
may have included some Sunnis. Iraqi officials identified the leader as 
Diya Abdul-Zahra Kadhim, 37, a Shiite from the southern city of Hillah 
who was killed in the fighting. Some Iraqi reports said he wanted to 
unleash violence to force the return of the "Hidden Imam," a descendant 
of the Prophet Muhammad who disappeared as a child in the 9th century.

Shiites believe the Hidden Imam will return to restore peace and justice 
to the world at a time when the Muslim community is in the gravest 
danger. Some officials suggested the leader considered himself the 
Hidden Imam.

In Basra, a Shiite cleric said the "Soldiers of Heaven" is the armed 
wing of a movement led by Ahmed bin al-Hassan al-Baghdadi, an obscure 
Shiite cleric also known as al-Yamani. The movement believes the return 
of the Hidden Imam is imminent. The cleric spoke on condition of 
anonymity because he did not want to be identified with Shiite factionalism.

Little is known about al-Baghdadi, who is believed to be from the 
southern city of Diwaniyah and who, according to some clerics, has told 
his followers he is in touch with the Hidden Imam. Some clerics said he 
founded his movement about eight years ago and has several thousands 
followers in southern Iraq.

Iraqi authorities said they became concerned about the cult when an 
informant told them last week that it was about to launch attacks during 
Tuesday's festival of Ashoura. They planned to slip into Najaf with the 
hundreds of thousands of pilgrims that descend on shrine cities for 
Shiite festivals.

The alleged plot was reminiscent of the 1979 attack in which Sunni 
extremists seized the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, the holiest 
site in Islam, taking hundreds of pilgrims hostage to protest alleged 
corruption in the Saudi royal family. Saudi forces stormed the mosque 
two weeks later, killing hundreds.

U.S. officials praised the role of Iraqi soldiers, most of whom are 
Shiite forces, for confronting Shiite gunmen.

"The aggressive manner in which the Iraqi soldiers performed north of 
Najaf going after the anti-Iraqi forces was impressive," Col. Michael 
Garrett, commander of the 4th Brigade Combat Team (Airborne), 25th 
Infantry Division, said in a statement.

Clearly, however, the Iraqis underestimated the Najaf cultists.

Units from the Iraqi army, police and the paramilitary national police 
went to the group's hide-out 12 miles northeast of Najaf early Sunday 
but came under a ferocious attack, according to Iraqi authorities. The 
Iraqis called for air support, and U.S. and British jets responded.

Still, the cultists could not be dislodged. Reinforcements from Iraq's 
elite Scorpion Brigade and the U.S. Army's 25th Division were sent to 
the fight. A U.S. Army helicopter was shot down, and the two American 
crew members were killed. Fighting continued until before dawn Monday, 
nearly 24 hours after the clash.

The deputy governor of Najaf, Abdul-Hussein Abtan, said Tuesday that 
more than 300 militants were killed and about 650 were arrested. Eleven 
Iraqi troops were killed and 30 wounded, he said.

The Shiite-dominated government maintains the cult had links to al-Qaida 
in Iraq, which seems unusual considering the Sunni group's hatred of 
Shiites as heretics and collaborators with the U.S.

Nevertheless, the "Soldiers of Heaven" may have had ties to
Saddam Hussein loyalists. Najaf officials said they were camped on land 
owned by a Saddam supporter. The area was once under the control of the 
al-Quds army, a force raised by Saddam in the 1990s.

It was unclear whether any former al-Quds members, who would have 
received extensive military training, were part of the cult.

In any case, it appears that the fighting had little to do with either 
the Sunni-led insurgency or the sectarian bloodletting between Shiites 
and Sunnis in the Baghdad area. More likely, the battle stemmed from 
rivalries within the Shiite community, which have led to armed clashes 
in the past in major southern cities.

Those internal tensions may increase if the Iraqi government bows to 
U.S. pressure and cracks down on Shiite militias.

"It seems most likely that this was Shiite-on-Shiite violence, with 
millenarian cultists making an attempt to march on Najaf during the 
chaos of the ritual season," Juan Cole, a Shiite scholar at the 
University of Michigan, said on his Web site. "The dangers of 
Shiite-on-Shiite violence in Iraq are substantial, as this episode 
demonstrated."

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