----- Original Message ----- From: "Steve Jolly" Subject: Re: Film vs Digita, was: lRe: Pentax is Dying?
> > I don't get the part where a declining trend is inexorably destined to hit > zero. The invention of personal computers has hit the typewriter industry > pretty hard, but they're still readily available, as are the ribbons for > them. The market is driven by demand, and if the number of diehard fans > of film on this list is anything to go by, there will still be demand for > a very long time. Ya, my wife bitches every time she has to pull the typewriter out of closet at her law office because some bank has it's own form, and won't allow computer generated copies of it. This list is driven by and for enthusiasts. That's why there isn't much traffic on it for point and shoot camera discussion, be it film or digital. We are not representative of real world demographics. I work in this industry. I am seeing a trend developing. How many makes and models of typewriters are available compared to 30 years ago? Can a consumer buy them at department stores like in the old days? Or do they have to search around a bit? Are new ones still really cheap like they used to be? Or are they kinda pricey now? And what do typewriters have to do with film anyway? They are in quite different market segments. The trend itself may not hit zero, but when it is no longer profitable for manufacturers to make something, they will stop making it. The guys over on rec.photo.film+labs think that Kodachrome is pretty much on it's way out. The Fairlawn N.J. plant is closing, and all the Americas processing is going to some K-Lab in Kansas. This leaves either two, or possibly 3 facilities in the entire world to process the stuff. With this kind of demand, how long do you give Kodachrome? As the demand tapers off, the variety of available products will also diminish. We no longer stock 100 ISO film at all. It doesn't sell in sufficient quantities to give shelf space to. Insufficient demand at the retail end causes zero demand at the supply side. At some point, if the trend continues, they will stop making 100 ISO print film. Insufficient demand leads to zero availablitiy. As it becomes more and more marginalized in the market place, it will become, more and more (like typewriters) a specialty product with limited availability. The users of Kodachrome will switch to Ektachrome. Or, their shooting habits may change, and they will switch to digital. Or enough will to make demand side sales drop low enough to cause zero demand on the supply side. The users of 100 speed print film will switch to 200. Or, enough may switch to digital to make 200 speed sales drop to the point where low demand side causes zero sales at the supply side. Meanwhile, the film processors demand for film processing continues to diminish. I have two film processors at work. One is being pulled pretty soon now. We need the space for a server to supply the needs of our online customers. Digital processing replaces film processing. If the point comes where I can't keep my chemistry in control due to very low processing volume (I give it a couple of years if the last year turns into a trend), then we will mothball our film processor, and outlab the stuff. The convenience to the customer will push a chunk of them that are on the fence over to digital, and another chunk onto the fence. Consumers don't give a rat's ass about whether their picture is on film or a memory chip. All they care about is that Aunt Martha in the back row is in focus. The manufacturers don't care about enthusiasts, or photographers at all. They care about demand side economics. > > At the very least, I expect there to be demand for b+w film and > development chemicals for a long time to come, even if all the big labs > and one-hour minilabs croak. Given a spiral tank, a changing bag, a sink > and a negative scanner, I think your average film enthusiast could keep > him/herself happy pretty much indefinitely. (This was my approach before > I got access to a darkroom.) Thats fair, although the people scanning film have either taken a drop in print quality, or didn't have good darkroom skills to begin with, and chose to go to the computer rather than become better printers. If all printing is done by scanning film, how long before they stop making black and white paper and chemistry? It goes back to demand side economics. William Robb
