Hum, so you did a google search, did you find these numbers, broken down
by ethnic groups. This takes a little work so bear with me.
The current Ethnic makeup of the US is 80.4% "White" which includes
White Hispanics
12.8% "Black" which includes
Black Hispanics
6.8% "Other" Chinese, American
Indian, Indian, etc., which includes of course Other Hispanics.
Hispanics can be of any ethnic group but their overall birthrate differs
from the larger ethnic group they belong to due to cultural differences
so I'll correct for that, (there are more nuances but I didn't bother
looking for more data).
Total Hispanics of all ethnic groups is 14.1%
The population replacement birth rate is 2.1 live births per couple over
a lifetime.
Now lets look at birth rates by ethnicity.
Birth Rate "Non Hispanic White" 1.7
"Non Hispanic Black" 2.5
"Non Hispanic Other" 2.5
Hispanic (over all) 3.9 This is the outlier but as I said
I'll make allowances.
Lets keep this simple by estimating a weighted average.
14.1% of 80.4% ~ 11.34% (Hispanic White) ~ 68.70% Non Hispanic White
14.1% of 12.8% ~ 1.80% (Hispanic Black) ~ 11.00% Non Hispanic Black
14.1% of 6.8% ~ 0.96% (Hispanic Other) ~ 6.14% Non Hispanic Other
Total 14.10% (Hispanic) 84.84% (Everybody else) Which
equals ~100% This tells me that, given rounding errors, my Math so far
is at least half right!
Now 1.7 * 68.7% = 1.17 (White NH)
2.5 * 11.0% = .28
2.5 * 6.1 = .15
3.9 * 14.1 = .56
Total 2.16
I come out with a over all birth rate just over replacement for current
residents! considering that I don't know the exact break down of
Hispanic White, vs Hispanic Black vs Hispanic Other I'm I think I'm
pretty close to zero population growth. I'll give myself the benefit of
the doubt and say my sigma is +/- .06 live births per couple over all in
the population. The increase in US population is almost entirely, if
not entirely, due to in immigration. True we are seeing a shift in
"native born" population over time, to a more Catholic and "Hispanic
heritage", with a minor shift to more a non white over all, group. But
you can't really blame the current "native born" population for run away
population growth in the US. Unless you can find better numbers than I
could find.
If you can do simple math you can figure things out for yourself.
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>Searching the Net I have found nothing to indicate that the US population
>growth has slowed to 0. Overall growth has slowed, but the population is still
>growing by quite a bit. A major surge occurred in the 1990's. Anyone curious
>can
>check census bureau facts.
>
>Also, in almost all areas US imports exceed US exports.
>
>A simple google search will turn this stuff up.
>
>Later, Marnie aka Doe
>
>
>
--
When you're worried or in doubt,
Run in circles, (scream and shout).
--
PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List
PDML@pdml.net
http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
