[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > On Wed, Nov 01, 2006 at 09:12:22PM -0000, Bob W wrote: > >>Your wise neurosurgeon might care to reflect on this: >>(http://www.cyclecraft.co.uk/digest/effectiveness.pdf) >> >>"... the average distance cycled per person in the UK each year is >>only 62 km42 (and in the Netherlands only 850 km43), so the average >>cyclist would expect a serious injury only once in more than 80 lifetimes. > > > That would only be true if the likelihood of accident was directly > proportional to distance travelled, which is a questionable assumption. > > Compare this, for example, to the equally often-quoted figure that > 50% of all automobile accidents occur within 1.5 miles of the home. > If this is true, and if the probability of an accident is directly > proportional to the length of the journey, then we are forced to the > conclusion that the average journey in an automobile is three miles. > This is plainly ridiculous, so one of the underlying assumptions > must be wrong. > > Hmm, it might just be right. In my household, besides driving to work (15miles and 6miles), there are mostly short trips: grocery shopping 1 mile, post office 1/2 mile, gym 1/4 mile, gas fillup varies but about 1 mile avg, other shopping 3 miles, movies etc 5 miles, eating out usually within 5 miles, dropping the kids off to school 1 mile. I guess it depends on how close everything is to you. The more rural you are, the further you have to go for everything. For people in a dense urban environment (and more likely to have accidents) the average driving distance must be really short.
rg -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
