I agree. And the Pentax investment in lenses for APS-C suggests that
they'll continue in that direction. My K7 and K20 do everything I want
them to do, and I expect future offerings will be only better.
Paul
On Aug 28, 2009, at 8:12 PM, Graydon wrote:
On Fri, Aug 28, 2009 at 07:55:00PM -0400, John Francis scripsit:
On Fri, Aug 28, 2009 at 07:03:48PM -0400, Miserere wrote:
2009/8/28 Mark Roberts <m...@robertstech.com>:
In June at GFM I said I expected full-frame to hit the $2000 price
point in 2010. Seems I was off the mark a bit. This means we
might see
full-frame at actual street prices around $1500 by next summer.
Exactly, which makes me wonder if Pentax can justify asking $1,300
for their next flagship APS-C camera.
You notice Olympus quaking in their boots asking people to buy 4/3rds
kit?
What next flagship? I don't expect anything better than the K-7 to
show up for at least the next 3 to 5 years. Beyond that is too far
away to be making any kind of predictions.
3 to 5 years of no upgrades just due to better sensors and faster
image
engine chips becoming available, if nothing else? This doesn't seem
highly plausible, somehow.
The next Pentax bodies will be sold on (low) price, not on features.
They're busy staking out "small", "tough", and "good value" as their
chunk of the feature space. That's not consistent with a plan to
compete on price, which would be crazy anyway. (You never compete on
price as the little guy; you can compete on value, or features, but
price is too dependent on volume.)
Full frame isn't inherently an advantage.
Up at the full frame end of things, lens costs dominate the
opportunity
cost of switching systems. Sony is trying hard to subsidize the body
costs long enough to get people switched in system terms. I'm not
expecting this to work quite how they plan.
Switching systems only works if people are willing to give up their
favourite existing lenses, or the body has some feature that they
absolutely must have to do their job or make them happy. Those are
both
fairly rare conditions. The last thing standing I can think of is
in-body anti-shake.
Pentax is betting quite a bit on the unwillingness of people who've
tried them to give up the DA Ltds., and to a lesser extent the DA*
lenses. So far, though, combining that with good value in the bodies
doesn't seem to be a bad bet.
-- Graydon
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