On Mon, 14 Jan 2002, Doug Henwood wrote:
> Rakesh Bhandari wrote: > > >At any rate, the crisis hit Dept I first. Consumption was not a > >problem. We also know Marx's famous vol II passge in which he > >criticizes underconsumption. Consumption will now give. > > We'll see. Wall Street's favorite economist, Ed Hyman, has a piece > out today claiming the U.S. recession probably ended in November > (citing, as most recent evidence, a decline in unemployment claims, > higher-than-expected chain store sails, a 23% surge in DRAM prices > over the last week, and several major positive profits surprises). > And, he says, a "synchronized global recovery is underway," citing > higher Taiwanese exports, UK retail sales, Malaysian industrial > production, and Canadian housing starts over only the last few weeks. > Finally, in November, his composite leading indicator for the OECD > had its biggest monthly increase in 18 years. > > For what it's worth, of course.... > > Doug Doug, are you agreeing with Hyman and this growing consensus? What about the recovery of profits and investment? If the cause of this recession is mostly falling profits and investment, as we seem to agree, isn't a necessary condition for recovery from the recession the recovery of profits and investment? How likely is a recovery of profits in the coming months? That would seem to be the crucial question. Does Hyman say anything about profits? What does Henwood say? Thanks, Fred
