Louis Proyect wrote:
>Obrador won't be as good as Evo, let alone Chavez, but he sounds like
he might _possibly_ be to the left of Lula, and even if he is about
the same as Lula, the country he may get to run is MEXICO, right next
to the US of A, so he and his voters are worthy of our support.
Yoshie
This is an *important* point. Having a left-of-center government abutting
the USA, even if it is on the tepid side, would have much more impact on
our politics than a firebrand being elected in Paraguay. I have a feeling,
however, that his very tepidness insures that Calderon will be president
just as Bush was in 2000 and 2004.
========================
I have the same sense about the impact of an Obrador presidency in El Norte,
especially on the already restive Latino population in the US. But Louis is
also probably right about the outcome, although the PRD isn't the Democratic
party, and its ranks and the left outside of it have been mobilizing
independently of Obrador. Yesterday's Financial Times reported that:
"Mr López Obrador's call for a rally in Mexico City's Zócalo Square, which
can hold more than 100,000 people, is a new phase of his party's protest
over the counting of the vote.
"While the former mayor of Mexico City was careful in his choice of language
and said that the party would "act responsibly", his call will heighten
fears that the rally could spark street protests and possibly outbreaks of
violence.
"Late Wednesday, a top PRD official told the Financial Times that a 'very
strong' civic movement was already mobilising, and that Mr López Obrador had
no choice but to take the lead to maintain calm.
" 'If Andrés Manuel does not assume leadership of it there will be chaos,'
said Manuel Camacho, who is one of Mr López Obrador's key strategists. 'The
people are very angry.'
The problem, of course, is what happens after tomorrow's rally - assuming it
doesn't turn bloody. I expect the cops/troops will be kept on a very tight
leash to ensure that doesn't happen.
The Obrador camp has already announced it will challenge the result in the
Federal Electoral Tribunal, the electoral court which can review the count
by the Federal Electoral Institute. The court has a month to rule. The PRD
wants a full manual recount; it doesn't trust the results in about a third
of the ballot boxes. It will be interesting if the mass movement can sustain
itself while waiting for the court to rule - and still retain the support of
the PRD leadership. The latter seems torn between not wanting to surrender
control of the mass movement but also not wanting to appear as though it is
acting outside the institutions of Mexico's bourgeois democracy and the
wishes of the right wing of its voting constituency.
See, for example, the comments by Mexican liberals Sergio Sarmiento and José
Woldenberg in Julio's latest piece on his excellent El Machete site:
http://machete2006.wordpress.com/ .
