On 3/12/07, Jim Devine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On 3/12/07, Julio Huato <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > The future is not a replica of the past.
Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
> Right. But the question is, will global capitalism stay in business?
> If the answer is yes, it is safe to bet that oil consumption at the
> global level will continue to rise into the foreseeable future:
the idea that global capitalism won't stay in business in the
foreseeable future seems irrelevant. It's possible we'll have a world
depression and/or a break-up of the world into competing nationalisms,
but even the latter (which seems less likely) doesn't involve global
capitalism ending or shutting down.
one major possibility is that a world depression would put a major
damper on efforts to move away from fossil fuels. First, it would
drive down oil & gasoline prices, discouraging private efforts to
economize on them. Second, it would squeeze national government
budgets, threatening funds allocated for replacing and/or economizing
on fossil fuel.
That is certainly not impossible, but if you were running Saudi Aramco
or the National Iranian Oil Company or PDVSA or PEMEX or a similar
entity, you wouldn't take what's incalculable into your investment
plan, nor would you if you were leading an organization of the Left
seeking to take state power so you would be in a position to run it
better.
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
<http://mrzine.org>
<http://monthlyreview.org/>
