There is no argument about the destruction and brutality, the poverty, produced in the extraction of the commodity of oil. Actually, I think it's the industrial capitalist equivalent of the plantation sugarcane economy.
I don't know, however, what that has to do with peak oil, or at least peak oil as described by Hubbert. We've been around this block many times before, on Pen-L and other lists. Back and forth, up and down, to and fro, the bottom line is that the assertions of the peak theorists have not been confirmed by actual performance characteristics. The supposed offset discrepancy between reserves and production (Laherre) has not materialized-- the supposed production peak and then decline as a function of reserves hasn't been followed in about 80% of the oil producting countries. Venezuela's decline in production since 1970 is coincident with a doubling of reserves of light crude from "normal" sources (as opposed to Orinoco super-heavy sources). Hubbert's own predictions for a worldwide peak-- 1986, 1993-- haven't exactly panned out. The general Hubbertist glee over the "this is it, 2000 is the year" -- kind of Y2K- Rapture-HalleBop-- for Mad Max fans came and went the way...of Y2K and well.. Mad Max. We may be going to hell in an Hummer, actually we are going to hell in an Hummer, but not because we're running out of the precious juice. A note for this looking to smile. Some of Hubbert's first work in predicting hydrocarbon depletion identified the looming shortage of coal. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Leigh Meyers" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, June 16, 2007 10:23 AM Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak oil warning > Still working on the transcription of a synopsis of Shell oil's > dilemma in regard to replacing reserves et al, but here's a glimpse of > what the natural environment of the U.S. will look like > not too long from now unless we keep killing Iraqis, Somalians, > Nigerians, Venezuelans... in genocidal quantities. > > Fort McMurray Alberta Canada. When I passed that way in my hitchhiking > travels in the mid 1970s, this was 'god's country'. I'd seen something > like this on a smaller scale then when I'd gotten a ride to Chetwynd > British Columbia by a fellow who made his living driving truck up the > Alaska highway delivering oil pipe. A dirt-streeted town overwhelmed > by traffic, people and absolute lack of any infrastructural > development to support the hordes who had descended upon it. > > The tar sands development has turned the Fort McMurray region into an > environmental/sociological hell. > > Courtesy of The Dominion, and MacDonald Stainsby @ [a-list] > Index Page: http://www.dominionpaper.ca/place/fort_mcmurray > > Fort McMurray: The Tar Sands > > Speaking to tar sands workers is a strange exercise in processing > contradictions. These folks are making $30, $40 and $50 per hour, > often bringing home upwards of $100,000 a year. But if you ask them > what they think, the responses are surprising. In the same breath that > they talk about the money they're making, workers (men and women) will > say things like "it's a mess, it's a huge mess" and even "it's a crime > against humanity". > > So it's sort of hard to prepare yourself to see what's actually out there. > > It's also hard to see what's actually out there. The land that's being > mined is publicly owned, but leased by Syncrude, Suncor and others, > and we've been told by a number of sources that folks who venture in > will end up with trespassing charges, a seized camera and even a > police escort off of the premises. In this case, the premises > are--potentially--the size of the state of Florida. > > http://www.dominionpaper.ca/weblogs/dru/1246 > > From top: > Campers in the Abasands Heights neighbourhood. A small bungalow here > can sell for $400,000, it's said, and thousands of workers are living > in trucks, vans, tents and corporate-run camps. > > Quad tracks on a local trail. > > Trucks bring in new equipment daily. > > Traffic in Fort Mc is known for being dangerous, congested and > reckless. Almost everyone we've spoken to here says complains about > the traffic, and how everyone is in a big hurry. This usually is noted > in the context of broader complaints about how everyone is out to get > what they want, now, and has little regard for others. One resident of > eight years went as far as to say that Albertans have, on the whole, > been ruined by their wealth, taught to expect that they can have > whatever they want, whenever they want. > > The other thing that people talk about is the crime rate. > > Local businesses are struggling to find ways for single, unattached > workers making $100,000 annually to spend their money. > > A float plane behind a fence, near the downtown area. > > An abandoned campsite near the river. > > Trucks are parked in front of a local casino. > > http://www.dominionpaper.ca/weblogs/dru/1235 > > > Fort McMurray: Homeless, Working Poor, and Welfare Recipients > > We had a brief conversation with Flex Turner, a twenty-five year > resident of Fort McMurray, Syncrude employee, and soup kitchen > volunteer. > > Turner said that since the kitchen where he volunteers started 13 > years ago, he has "seen the numbers explode" every year. In addition > to the city's homeless population, which he estimates at around 500, > the church-based kitchen serves the working poor--mainly those "at > McDonald's," cleaning jobs and the hotel industry--and welfare > recipients. Once people pay their rent, he said, "there's not a lot > left over for food." > > Turner explained that city was not building low-income housing, and > the province is not providing funding to do so, exacerbating the > existing housing crisis in Fort McMurray. > > The oil companies, he said, are not responsible for building roads or > housing, so "they need to pay more" so the government can provide > those things (oil companies currently pay 1% in royalties on oil > revenues, and subsidies are provided for tar sands exploration). > > He added that companies like Syncrude sponsor colleges, recreational > facilities and United Way. > > When asked about the environmental impact, Turner seemed to be share > the prevailing attitude that recent developments are good for jobs, > and didn't have a fundamental problem with the overall developments. > He did have some sharper comments, however. > > "I'm not a scientist," he said, but noted that "it's a huge amount of > lands" that are going to be mined for oil sands, and a "huge amount of > waste" that will be generated. > > Turner referred to projects like Syncrude's raising of Bison as "a big > show piece... good PR work for them." > > "It's never going to be what it was," said Turner. "Tailing ponds will > be there for another hundred years... the wildlife are coming closer > to [Fort McMurray]; we're taking up their space." > > http://www.dominionpaper.ca/weblogs/dru/1236 > > > On 6/15/07, Leigh Meyers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Scarcity economics wouldn't be worth the nomenclature unless the > > scarcity had some probability of of becoming 'scarcity reality'. The > > probability for oil, in a rather short amount of time on the human > > scale, is quite high. > > > > I found a good reference point using Shell as an example this > > afternoon, but It's not on the internet. I'll transcribe this evening. > > > > Leigh > > > > On 6/15/07, sartesian <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Replacement rates and reserves are economic categories. Peak oil is > > > scarcity economics all dressed up with nowhere to go. > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Leigh Meyers" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > Sent: Friday, June 15, 2007 12:27 PM > > > Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak oil warning > > > > > > > > > > Replacement rates are a physical reality dependent on a number of > > > > factors NONE OF WHICH are currently (or in the foreseeable future) in > > > > favor of the petrochemical industry or it's exploration minions.. > > > > physically, as in Shell being chased out of the Niger Delta by force, > > > > or economically, as in cruder oil costing more to process, coming from > > > > places where we have to supply costly security, or costlier wars, to > > > > acquire the raw product AND pass that cost on to the consumers > > > > personal or industrial. > > > > > > > > "Reserves" are a hypothetical, gerrymandered, joke of minimal global > > > > proportion. I don't bother discussing them at all in relation to 'peak > > > > oil'. > > > > > > > > Leigh > > > > > > > > > > > > On 6/14/07, sartesian <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > Replacement rates and reserves are economic categories, dependent > > > upon > > > > > exploration and development, and of course exploration and > > > development > > > > > costs. > > > > > > > > > > After the overproduction and overaccumulation of the 90s, in both > > > the > > > > > commodity itself, in the fixed assets, and the leases for > > > exploration, > > > > > the oil majors reduced spending and centered their efforts on > > > > > development rather than exploration. > > > > > > > > > > Anyway, while I do not think the oil is running out, that is no > > > reason > > > > > not to deal with the issues of waste, pollution, and destructive > > > > > expropriation of resources. > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > From: "Leigh Meyers" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, June 14, 2007 1:03 PM > > > > > Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak oil warning > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It's been a number of years since the oil companies have been able > > > to > > > > > > produce enough at the wellhead to prevent depletion. > > > > > > > > > > > > On 6/14/07, s.artesian <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > Have supplies, reserves, "peaked," > > > > > > > and no future discoveries, extensions of reserves, or > > > > > > > new technologies to access remaining reserves (usually > > > > > > > half the amounts actually extracted) will ever reverse > > > > > > > the depletion? Or have supplies of the "cheap stuff" > > > > > > > peaked? And if the latter, isn't cheap a social, > > > > > > > not a geological, category? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > > > >From: Louis Proyect <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > > > > > >Sent: Jun 14, 2007 9:59 AM > > > > > > > >To: [email protected] > > > > > > > >Subject: [PEN-L] Peak oil warning > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
