The US interventionist policy has been a complete failure ... unless you think leaving thousands of American soldiers disfigured and paralyzed as a worthy sacrifice.
On Friday, February 26, 2016 at 9:40:18 AM UTC-6, Travis wrote: > > > > > > > > > The Consequences of American Retreat from the Middle East > > > > *by Efraim InbarBESA Center Perspectives > <http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/consequences-of-american-retreat-from-the-middle-east/>February > > 24, 2016* > > *http://www.meforum.org/5870/american-retreat-from-the-middle-east > <http://www.meforum.org/5870/american-retreat-from-the-middle-east>* > > > > [image: Description: http://www.meforum.org/pics/large/2401.jpg] > > *A cartoon in Al-Sharq al-Awsat depicts President Obama befriending Cuba > while blowing smoke in the Middle East (whatever that means).* > > The US, under President Barack Obama, has signaled its intent to reduce > its presence in the Middle East. The US fought two unsuccessful wars in the > region – a frustrating lesson about the limits of its power. At the same > time, US dependency upon Middle Eastern energy has been reduced thanks to > domestic progress in fracking technology. Moreover, Washington has decided > to "pivot" to China, an emerging global challenger, and also to cut defense > expenditures, leaving fewer military assets available for projecting power > in the Middle East. (For a while during President Obama's tenure, the US > had no aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean or in the Gulf at > all, an unprecedented situation.) In addition, the American campaign > against ISIS has been extremely limited, and has met with little success. > > Unfortunately, this disengagement signals both fatigue and weakness. > > *American retreat from the Middle East signals both fatigue and weakness.* > > Washington also has desisted from confronting Iran and has gone to great > lengths to accommodate it. President Obama's contention is that by > completing a nuclear deal with Iran, he resolved one of the outstanding > security issues in the region before leaving office. However the deal > legitimizes a large nuclear infrastructure in Iran, and ignores the > cardinal national security interests of at least two US allies: Israel and > Saudi Arabia. The subsequent removal of international economic sanctions – > with no reciprocal requirement for any change in Iranian regional policy – > positions Iran to reap great financial benefits at no cost. President > Obama's Iran policy has occasioned a dramatic change in the regional > balance of power, yet Washington appears largely unperturbed. > > Whereas US policy on Iran has been guided primarily by wishful thinking, > the apprehensions of regional actors with regard to Iran's hegemonic > ambitions have multiplied in response to the nuclear deal. While Washington > claims to be confident that Iran will play "a responsible regional role," > leaders in Ankara, Cairo, Jerusalem, and Riyadh see Iran as almost entirely > unaltered from its pre-deal state in any meaningful political sense, with > the potential to produce nuclear bombs in a short time. > > The gravest consequence of the US policy of disengagement from the region > is the increased probability of nuclear proliferation. Powers contending > for regional leadership, such as Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will not > stand idly by in the nuclear arena, particularly as the US is no longer > seen as a reliable security provider. US attempts to convince regional > powers to rely on an American nuclear umbrella in an attempt to prevent > nuclear proliferation are likely to fail. The emergence of a multi-polar > nuclear Middle East, which is a plausible consequence of the American > nuclear accommodation with Iran, will be a strategic nightmare for everyone. > > *The gravest consequence of US disengagement is the increased likelihood > of regional nuclear proliferation.* > > An emboldened Iran, which traditionally acts through proxies rather than > through military conquest, might intensify its campaign to subvert Saudi > Arabia, possibly by playing the Shiite card in the Shiite-majority and > oil-rich Eastern province. The loss of that province would considerably > weaken the Saudi state and might even bring about its disintegration. > > Iran could use subversion, terrorist attacks, and intimidation of the Gulf > states to evict the thinning American presence completely from the Gulf. In > the absence of American determination and ability to project force, Iranian > superior power might "Finlandize" the Gulf countries. We could also see > also the Finlandization of the Caspian basin, where Iran shares the coast > with important energy producers like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The > Caspian basin and the Persian Gulf form an "energy ellipse" that contains a > large part of the world's energy resources. > > Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are very fearful of growing Iranian influence. > Those countries, which adopted a pro-Western foreign policy orientation > after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, might decide to return to the > Russian orbit, because Russia appears at present to be a more reliable ally > than the US. > > Russia is fully alive to the potential for a reassertion of a Russian role > in the region in the wake of American retreat. To that end, it has taken > the major step of intervening militarily in Syria to assure the survival of > Assad's regime. The Syrian littoral is a vital base for enhanced Russian > naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, and this preceded Russian air > participation in the Syrian civil war. In addition, Russia wants to protect > energy prospects that depend on Assad's survival. It already has signed > exploration contracts with the Assad regime with regard to the recent gas > discoveries in the Levant basin. > > Syria has been an ally of Iran since 1979 – the longest alliance in the > Middle East. The preservation of the Assad regime is critical to Iranian > interests because Damascus is a linchpin to its proxy, the Hezbollah in > Lebanon. Russia's efforts on Assad's behalf thus directly serve the > interests of the Iranian regime. If successful, those efforts will further > Iranian influence in the region. > > *With American credibility waning, traditional U.S. allies are beginning > to hedge their bets.* > > Outside Syria, we may see Iran join Russia in supporting Kurdish political > ambitions in order to weaken Turkey, Iran's rival for regional leadership. > The Kurds are a thorn in Turkey's side. Iran and Turkey are supporting > opposing sides in the civil war in Syria, where the Kurds are carving out > autonomous regions. Depending on how the war transpires, Kurdish national > dreams might benefit from the power vacuum created by the disruption of the > Arab statist structure and the American exit from the region. > > As to Egypt, American reluctance to support the al-Sisi regime plays into > Russian hands. The Russians are selling weapons to Egypt, negotiating port > rights in Alexandria, and supplying Egypt with nuclear reactors. In Iraq > too, we see the harbingers of a Russian presence in coordination with Iran, > as American influence in that state continues to wane. > > The rise of a more aggressive Iran – a direct consequence of the US > retreat – may bring about greater tacit cooperation among Egypt, Jordan, > Saudi Arabia and Israel. The big question is whether Turkey will join such > an anti-Iranian alignment. > > US weakness in the region inevitably will have ripple effects in other > parts of the globe. American credibility is now subject to question, and > allies elsewhere may determine that it would be wise to hedge their bets. > Greater challenges await the US beyond the Middle East > > > __._,_.___ > ------------------------------ > Posted by: "Beowulf" <[email protected] <javascript:>> > ------------------------------ > > > Visit Your Group > <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/grendelreport/info;_ylc=X3oDMTJmdmx0OGtjBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2Z2hwBHN0aW1lAzE0NTY0NDI1NzU-> > > > > [image: Yahoo! Groups] > <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo;_ylc=X3oDMTJlaXNkcmNpBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNnZnAEc3RpbWUDMTQ1NjQ0MjU3NQ--> > > • Privacy <https://info.yahoo.com/privacy/us/yahoo/groups/details.html> • > Unsubscribe <javascript:> • Terms of Use > <https://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/terms/> > > __,_._,___ > > > -- -- Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. 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