I don't think we should have ever been there. On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 11:46 AM, plainolamerican <[email protected] > wrote:
> The US interventionist policy has been a complete failure ... unless you > think leaving thousands of American soldiers disfigured and paralyzed as a > worthy sacrifice. > > > On Friday, February 26, 2016 at 9:40:18 AM UTC-6, Travis wrote: > >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> The Consequences of American Retreat from the Middle East >> >> >> >> *by Efraim InbarBESA Center Perspectives >> <http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/consequences-of-american-retreat-from-the-middle-east/>February >> 24, 2016* >> >> *http://www.meforum.org/5870/american-retreat-from-the-middle-east >> <http://www.meforum.org/5870/american-retreat-from-the-middle-east>* >> >> >> >> [image: Description: http://www.meforum.org/pics/large/2401.jpg] >> >> *A cartoon in Al-Sharq al-Awsat depicts President Obama befriending Cuba >> while blowing smoke in the Middle East (whatever that means).* >> >> The US, under President Barack Obama, has signaled its intent to reduce >> its presence in the Middle East. The US fought two unsuccessful wars in the >> region – a frustrating lesson about the limits of its power. At the same >> time, US dependency upon Middle Eastern energy has been reduced thanks to >> domestic progress in fracking technology. Moreover, Washington has decided >> to "pivot" to China, an emerging global challenger, and also to cut defense >> expenditures, leaving fewer military assets available for projecting power >> in the Middle East. (For a while during President Obama's tenure, the US >> had no aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean or in the Gulf at >> all, an unprecedented situation.) In addition, the American campaign >> against ISIS has been extremely limited, and has met with little success. >> >> Unfortunately, this disengagement signals both fatigue and weakness. >> >> *American retreat from the Middle East signals both fatigue and weakness.* >> >> Washington also has desisted from confronting Iran and has gone to great >> lengths to accommodate it. President Obama's contention is that by >> completing a nuclear deal with Iran, he resolved one of the outstanding >> security issues in the region before leaving office. However the deal >> legitimizes a large nuclear infrastructure in Iran, and ignores the >> cardinal national security interests of at least two US allies: Israel and >> Saudi Arabia. The subsequent removal of international economic sanctions – >> with no reciprocal requirement for any change in Iranian regional policy – >> positions Iran to reap great financial benefits at no cost. President >> Obama's Iran policy has occasioned a dramatic change in the regional >> balance of power, yet Washington appears largely unperturbed. >> >> Whereas US policy on Iran has been guided primarily by wishful thinking, >> the apprehensions of regional actors with regard to Iran's hegemonic >> ambitions have multiplied in response to the nuclear deal. While Washington >> claims to be confident that Iran will play "a responsible regional role," >> leaders in Ankara, Cairo, Jerusalem, and Riyadh see Iran as almost entirely >> unaltered from its pre-deal state in any meaningful political sense, with >> the potential to produce nuclear bombs in a short time. >> >> The gravest consequence of the US policy of disengagement from the region >> is the increased probability of nuclear proliferation. Powers contending >> for regional leadership, such as Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will not >> stand idly by in the nuclear arena, particularly as the US is no longer >> seen as a reliable security provider. US attempts to convince regional >> powers to rely on an American nuclear umbrella in an attempt to prevent >> nuclear proliferation are likely to fail. The emergence of a multi-polar >> nuclear Middle East, which is a plausible consequence of the American >> nuclear accommodation with Iran, will be a strategic nightmare for everyone. >> >> *The gravest consequence of US disengagement is the increased likelihood >> of regional nuclear proliferation.* >> >> An emboldened Iran, which traditionally acts through proxies rather than >> through military conquest, might intensify its campaign to subvert Saudi >> Arabia, possibly by playing the Shiite card in the Shiite-majority and >> oil-rich Eastern province. The loss of that province would considerably >> weaken the Saudi state and might even bring about its disintegration. >> >> Iran could use subversion, terrorist attacks, and intimidation of the >> Gulf states to evict the thinning American presence completely from the >> Gulf. In the absence of American determination and ability to project >> force, Iranian superior power might "Finlandize" the Gulf countries. We >> could also see also the Finlandization of the Caspian basin, where Iran >> shares the coast with important energy producers like Azerbaijan and >> Turkmenistan. The Caspian basin and the Persian Gulf form an "energy >> ellipse" that contains a large part of the world's energy resources. >> >> Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are very fearful of growing Iranian >> influence. Those countries, which adopted a pro-Western foreign policy >> orientation after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, might decide to >> return to the Russian orbit, because Russia appears at present to be a more >> reliable ally than the US. >> >> Russia is fully alive to the potential for a reassertion of a Russian >> role in the region in the wake of American retreat. To that end, it has >> taken the major step of intervening militarily in Syria to assure the >> survival of Assad's regime. The Syrian littoral is a vital base for >> enhanced Russian naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, and this >> preceded Russian air participation in the Syrian civil war. In addition, >> Russia wants to protect energy prospects that depend on Assad's survival. >> It already has signed exploration contracts with the Assad regime with >> regard to the recent gas discoveries in the Levant basin. >> >> Syria has been an ally of Iran since 1979 – the longest alliance in the >> Middle East. The preservation of the Assad regime is critical to Iranian >> interests because Damascus is a linchpin to its proxy, the Hezbollah in >> Lebanon. Russia's efforts on Assad's behalf thus directly serve the >> interests of the Iranian regime. If successful, those efforts will further >> Iranian influence in the region. >> >> *With American credibility waning, traditional U.S. allies are beginning >> to hedge their bets.* >> >> Outside Syria, we may see Iran join Russia in supporting Kurdish >> political ambitions in order to weaken Turkey, Iran's rival for regional >> leadership. The Kurds are a thorn in Turkey's side. Iran and Turkey are >> supporting opposing sides in the civil war in Syria, where the Kurds are >> carving out autonomous regions. Depending on how the war transpires, >> Kurdish national dreams might benefit from the power vacuum created by the >> disruption of the Arab statist structure and the American exit from the >> region. >> >> As to Egypt, American reluctance to support the al-Sisi regime plays into >> Russian hands. The Russians are selling weapons to Egypt, negotiating port >> rights in Alexandria, and supplying Egypt with nuclear reactors. In Iraq >> too, we see the harbingers of a Russian presence in coordination with Iran, >> as American influence in that state continues to wane. >> >> The rise of a more aggressive Iran – a direct consequence of the US >> retreat – may bring about greater tacit cooperation among Egypt, Jordan, >> Saudi Arabia and Israel. The big question is whether Turkey will join such >> an anti-Iranian alignment. >> >> US weakness in the region inevitably will have ripple effects in other >> parts of the globe. American credibility is now subject to question, and >> allies elsewhere may determine that it would be wise to hedge their bets. >> Greater challenges await the US beyond the Middle East >> >> >> __._,_.___ >> ------------------------------ >> Posted by: "Beowulf" <[email protected]> >> ------------------------------ >> >> >> Visit Your Group >> <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/grendelreport/info;_ylc=X3oDMTJmdmx0OGtjBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2Z2hwBHN0aW1lAzE0NTY0NDI1NzU-> >> >> >> [image: Yahoo! Groups] >> <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo;_ylc=X3oDMTJlaXNkcmNpBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNnZnAEc3RpbWUDMTQ1NjQ0MjU3NQ--> >> • Privacy <https://info.yahoo.com/privacy/us/yahoo/groups/details.html> >> • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use >> <https://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/terms/> >> >> __,_._,___ >> >> >> -- > -- > Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. > For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum > > * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ > * It's active and moderated. 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