Uhm.....Call me a little slow, but I haven't a friggin clue what that meant.
On Sat, Jun 11, 2011 at 11:07 PM, Bruce Majors <[email protected]>wrote: > > > > > > 10 June 2011 Last updated at 13:59 > > Global warming since 1995 'now significant' > Richard Black By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News > > Climate warming since 1995 is now statistically significant, according > to Phil Jones, the UK scientist targeted in the "ClimateGate" affair. > > Last year, he told BBC News that post-1995 warming was not significant - > a statement still seen on blogs critical of the idea of man-made climate > change. > > But another year of data has pushed the trend past the threshold usually > used to assess whether trends are "real". > > Dr Jones says this shows the importance of using longer records for > analysis. > > By widespread convention, scientists use a minimum threshold of 95% to > assess whether a trend is likely to be down to an underlying cause, > rather than emerging by chance. > > If a trend meets the 95% threshold, it basically means that the odds of > it being down to chance are less than one in 20. > > Last year's analysis, which went to 2009, did not reach this threshold; > but adding data for 2010 takes it over the line. > > "The trend over the period 1995-2009 was significant at the 90% level, > but wasn't significant at the standard 95% level that people use," > Professor Jones told BBC News. > > "Basically what's changed is one more year [of data]. That period > 1995-2009 was just 15 years - and because of the uncertainty in > estimating trends over short periods, an extra year has made that trend > significant at the 95% level which is the traditional threshold that > statisticians have used for many years. > > "It just shows the difficulty of achieving significance with a short > time series, and that's why longer series - 20 or 30 years - would be a > much better way of estimating trends and getting significance on a > consistent basis." > > Professor Jones' previous comment, from a BBC interview in Febuary 2010, > is routinely quoted - erroneously - as demonstration that the Earth's > surface temperature is not rising. > Globally consistent > > The dataset that Professor Jones helps to compile - HadCRUT3 - is a > joint project between the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University > of East Anglia (UEA), where he is based, and the UK Met Office. > > It is one of the main global temperature records used by bodies such as > the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). > > HadCRUT shows a warming 1995-2010 of 0.19C - consistent with the other > major records, which all use slightly different ways of analysing the > data in order to compensate for issues such as the dearth of measuring > stations in polar regions. > > Shortly before the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Phil Jones found > himself at the centre of the affair that came to be known as > "ClimateGate", which saw the release of more than 1,000 emails taken > from a CRU server. > > Critics alleged the emails showed CRU scientists and others attempting > to subvert the usual processes of science, and of manipulating data in > order to paint an unfounded picture of globally rising temperatures. > > Subsequent enquiries found the scientists and their institutions did > fall short of best practice in areas such as routine use of professional > statisticians and response to Freedom of Information requests, but found > no case to answer on the charges of manipulation. > > Since then, nothing has emerged through mainstream science to challenge > the IPCC's basic picture of a world warming through greenhouse gas > emissions. > > And a new initiative to construct a global temperature record, based at > Stanford University in California whose funders include "climate > sceptical" organisations, has reached early conclusions that match > established records closely. > > http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13719510 > > -- > Mario Huet > Libertarian Alliance Forum > List Administrator > > ********************************************** > Words cannot picture her; but all men know > That solemn sketch the pure sad artist wrought > ********************************************** > James Thomson, The City of Dreadful Night > > __._,_.___ > Reply to > sender<[email protected]?subject=Re%3A%20Global%20warming%20since%201995%20%27now%20significant%27>| > Reply > to > group<[email protected]?subject=Re%3A%20Global%20warming%20since%201995%20%27now%20significant%27>| > Reply > via web > post<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJydHRnamRrBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BG1zZ0lkAzExNzMwNgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNycGx5BHN0aW1lAzEzMDc4MDQ5NTc-?act=reply&messageNum=117306>| > Start > a New > Topic<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJldDBpdjFrBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTMwNzgwNDk1Nw--> > Messages in this > topic<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/message/117306;_ylc=X3oDMTM4OGF1ZXQzBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BG1zZ0lkAzExNzMwNgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawN2dHBjBHN0aW1lAzEzMDc4MDQ5NTcEdHBjSWQDMTE3MzA2>( > 1) > Recent Activity: > > > Visit Your > Group<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMXUwdTByBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZnaHAEc3RpbWUDMTMwNzgwNDk1Nw--> > Subscribe: [email protected] > Unsubscribe: [email protected] > > NB - The Libertarian Alliance does not necessarily approve of the above > message. > [image: Yahoo! > Groups]<http://groups.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTJkZW1kNnVkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2dmcARzdGltZQMxMzA3ODA0OTU3> > Switch to: > Text-Only<[email protected]?subject=Change+Delivery+Format:+Traditional>, > Daily > Digest<[email protected]?subject=Email+Delivery:+Digest>• > Unsubscribe<[email protected]?subject=Unsubscribe>• > Terms > of Use <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> > . > > __,_._,___ > > -- > Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. > For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum > > * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ > * It's active and moderated. 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