HI...I do not l know what data set they are measuring and it is hard to figure it out the way he puts it which is why I don't get it either. He seems a bit evasive and does not clarify exactly what this new set includes that pushes them into statistical significance. i do not know if that is because he is eating crow from the earlier statement or he my simply feels that the science is too complex to explain to the average person. I have spoken to atmosperic scientists and they are like talking to rocket scientist or having someone explain what the heck is a Buckyball. My eyes glaze over and i am lost quickly. i know when we study trends in medicine it is not the same as cause and effect results of chemo on tumors. For example there is an increasing trend in obesity (no sh-t) that is statistically significant: this is broken own by comparing the population over time and the end point is obesity. He states nothing other than this trend (whatever their endpoint) is now significant. This may have been mentioned somewhere else in the interview or it may be published. However, what makes me skeptical (because I am just naturally that way with most everything) is that you have scientist with several years of research experience who says that the 90% trend was significant and it was not. What he should have said was the earlier studies showed a trend that was increasing and that (?) was at 90% however, now with the additional data that makes the study more powerful and the analysis now accepts that the hypothesis is not just by chance alone by statiscal measurement an therefore is significant at this point. Who knows what it will be when they cram the next data set in there. they may be back to non significant measurements. But I completely disregarded his statement unless I find the study, see what they used for the methodology. Anyone with this much experience ought not to mixing significance and 90% and back peddling. s On Mon, Jun 13, 2011 at 3:16 AM, Keith In Köln <[email protected]>wrote:
> Hello Sharon! > > Nope, I am not insulted at all! > > Do you understand Phil Jones or Richard Black's premise? "What" statistics > have now reached the ninety-five percentile? > > > > > On Sun, Jun 12, 2011 at 4:54 PM, Sharon Fuentes > <[email protected]>wrote: > >> oops cut and pasted wrong quote..... >> >> >> Good morning Keith.... >> >> I don't want to insult you...I am not sure what you know about >> statistics. Keep in mind that I have not seen these statistics and do not >> know what methodology they used to measure the data. I also don't >> necessarily buy the whole global warming issue so I am not going to offer an >> opinion. the gold standard in statistcal methodology is to say that >> something does not happen by chance is that the data has to prove that the >> hypothesis (global warming, medicall illnesses in certain populations, >> accidents in youth drivers etc) is happening not due to chance. When one >> does research, you collect the data points and analyze them. In order to >> even begin to have the correct numbers to make an analysis, you must have 11 >> (I am almost certain) objects/subjects, data points so that you have the >> minimum of 10 degress of freedom-which translates into the power. This >> means that there are enough numbers to make a statistical measurement. >> Below this, statiscal analysis can be fraught with error. So the larger the >> data set, the more power, and certainty and confidence you can have when one >> has something that is statistically significant p value <0.05-95% certainty >> that the hypothesis is not due to chance. In the argument below, they are >> saying that they now have a large enough set to accept the hypothesis that >> this does exist. I just assume that whatever it is that they are measuring, >> this last set of data that was added to the earlier goups, through their >> methodology, now accepts the hypothosis that it does exist. I do not know >> what they are measuring, how they are controling for variables or anything >> like that. And I do not know what tests they are using and whether these >> tests are good ones to measure this. >> >> I suppose the take home message is, the more data, the stronger the >> numbers are to measure to either accept or not the hypothesis. When I read >> medical journals and these big institutions start throwing statistically >> significant this or that-I first ask-how many were in the study, what was >> the hypothesis, did they do some off the wall statistical test and if they >> did-it usually means that they had to search for a statistical test that >> would make their data significant when another one should have been used. >> >> "Basically what's changed is one more year [of data]. That period >> 1995-2009 was just 15 years - and because of the uncertainty in >> estimating trends over short periods, an extra year has made that trend >> significant at the 95% level which is the traditional threshold that >> statisticians have used for many years. >> >> >> This statement is misleading.....a trend at 90% is just a trend. it is >> not a significant one. When it crossed to 95%. Then one can use >> significant-otherwise-baloney. I would like to see the raw data and what >> test they use....but i really don't have the time or inclination...we all >> know the world is going to hell in a hand basket and I am just along for the >> ride and occassional doomsday party. >> >> S >> >> >> >> On Sun, Jun 12, 2011 at 3:27 AM, Keith In Köln >> <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> Uhm.....Call me a little slow, but I haven't a friggin clue what that >>> meant. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Sat, Jun 11, 2011 at 11:07 PM, Bruce Majors >>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> 10 June 2011 Last updated at 13:59 >>>> >>>> Global warming since 1995 'now significant' >>>> Richard Black By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News >>>> >>>> Climate warming since 1995 is now statistically significant, according >>>> to Phil Jones, the UK scientist targeted in the "ClimateGate" affair. >>>> >>>> Last year, he told BBC News that post-1995 warming was not significant - >>>> >>>> a statement still seen on blogs critical of the idea of man-made climate >>>> >>>> change. >>>> >>>> But another year of data has pushed the trend past the threshold usually >>>> >>>> used to assess whether trends are "real". >>>> >>>> Dr Jones says this shows the importance of using longer records for >>>> analysis. >>>> >>>> By widespread convention, scientists use a minimum threshold of 95% to >>>> assess whether a trend is likely to be down to an underlying cause, >>>> rather than emerging by chance. >>>> >>>> If a trend meets the 95% threshold, it basically means that the odds of >>>> it being down to chance are less than one in 20. >>>> >>>> Last year's analysis, which went to 2009, did not reach this threshold; >>>> but adding data for 2010 takes it over the line. >>>> >>>> "The trend over the period 1995-2009 was significant at the 90% level, >>>> but wasn't significant at the standard 95% level that people use," >>>> Professor Jones told BBC News. >>>> >>>> "Basically what's changed is one more year [of data]. That period >>>> 1995-2009 was just 15 years - and because of the uncertainty in >>>> estimating trends over short periods, an extra year has made that trend >>>> significant at the 95% level which is the traditional threshold that >>>> statisticians have used for many years. >>>> >>>> "It just shows the difficulty of achieving significance with a short >>>> time series, and that's why longer series - 20 or 30 years - would be a >>>> much better way of estimating trends and getting significance on a >>>> consistent basis." >>>> >>>> Professor Jones' previous comment, from a BBC interview in Febuary 2010, >>>> >>>> is routinely quoted - erroneously - as demonstration that the Earth's >>>> surface temperature is not rising. >>>> Globally consistent >>>> >>>> The dataset that Professor Jones helps to compile - HadCRUT3 - is a >>>> joint project between the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University >>>> >>>> of East Anglia (UEA), where he is based, and the UK Met Office. >>>> >>>> It is one of the main global temperature records used by bodies such as >>>> the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). >>>> >>>> HadCRUT shows a warming 1995-2010 of 0.19C - consistent with the other >>>> major records, which all use slightly different ways of analysing the >>>> data in order to compensate for issues such as the dearth of measuring >>>> stations in polar regions. >>>> >>>> Shortly before the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Phil Jones found >>>> himself at the centre of the affair that came to be known as >>>> "ClimateGate", which saw the release of more than 1,000 emails taken >>>> from a CRU server. >>>> >>>> Critics alleged the emails showed CRU scientists and others attempting >>>> to subvert the usual processes of science, and of manipulating data in >>>> order to paint an unfounded picture of globally rising temperatures. >>>> >>>> Subsequent enquiries found the scientists and their institutions did >>>> fall short of best practice in areas such as routine use of professional >>>> >>>> statisticians and response to Freedom of Information requests, but found >>>> >>>> no case to answer on the charges of manipulation. >>>> >>>> Since then, nothing has emerged through mainstream science to challenge >>>> the IPCC's basic picture of a world warming through greenhouse gas >>>> emissions. >>>> >>>> And a new initiative to construct a global temperature record, based at >>>> Stanford University in California whose funders include "climate >>>> sceptical" organisations, has reached early conclusions that match >>>> established records closely. >>>> >>>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13719510 >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Mario Huet >>>> Libertarian Alliance Forum >>>> List Administrator >>>> >>>> ********************************************** >>>> Words cannot picture her; but all men know >>>> That solemn sketch the pure sad artist wrought >>>> ********************************************** >>>> James Thomson, The City of Dreadful Night >>>> >>>> __._,_.___ >>>> Reply to >>>> sender<[email protected]?subject=Re%3A%20Global%20warming%20since%201995%20%27now%20significant%27>| >>>> Reply >>>> to >>>> group<[email protected]?subject=Re%3A%20Global%20warming%20since%201995%20%27now%20significant%27>| >>>> Reply >>>> via web >>>> post<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJydHRnamRrBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BG1zZ0lkAzExNzMwNgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNycGx5BHN0aW1lAzEzMDc4MDQ5NTc-?act=reply&messageNum=117306>| >>>> Start >>>> a New >>>> Topic<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJldDBpdjFrBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTMwNzgwNDk1Nw--> >>>> Messages in this >>>> topic<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/message/117306;_ylc=X3oDMTM4OGF1ZXQzBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BG1zZ0lkAzExNzMwNgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawN2dHBjBHN0aW1lAzEzMDc4MDQ5NTcEdHBjSWQDMTE3MzA2>( >>>> 1) >>>> Recent Activity: >>>> >>>> >>>> Visit Your >>>> Group<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMXUwdTByBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZnaHAEc3RpbWUDMTMwNzgwNDk1Nw--> >>>> Subscribe: [email protected] >>>> Unsubscribe: [email protected] >>>> >>>> NB - The Libertarian Alliance does not necessarily approve of the above >>>> message. >>>> [image: Yahoo! 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