http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=88280&d=16&m=10&y=2006&pix=opinion.jpg&category=Opinion
Monday, 16, October, 2006 (24, Ramadhan, 1427)
Europe Should Stop Treating the Gulf as US Backyard
Dr. Christian Koch, Arab News
The US has dominated the Gulf region as the main external
power after the withdrawal of the British from the region East of Suez in 1971.
Ever since, the US has instituted several policies to try and achieve security
and stability in the region - whether by relying on Saudi Arabia and Iran to
protect US interests as was the case in the 1970s, by playing Iran and Iraq
against each other during the 1980s to maintain a regional balance of power or
by isolating both Iran and Iraq in the 1990s as part of its dual containment
strategy. But none of these approaches actually brought to the region a system
of security and stability. The US attempt to impose more direct control with
its toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq failed to do the same.
During this entire period, Europe more or less acquiesced to
US dominance of the region and restrained its relationship with the Gulf almost
exclusively to the economic domain.
What has become apparent however in the three years since the
invasion of Iraq is that America does not have the answers for the stability of
this vital region. Military muscle and smart missile technology have failed to
change the status quo according to American plans and instead has only caused
greater resentment and alienated allies. This includes the Arab Gulf states
that continue to have military relationships with the US and increasingly see
US policies in the region as a dead-end. When US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice visited Saudi Arabia at the beginning of October and then met with the GCC
foreign ministers in Cairo, she was received with courtesy, but her message
fell on deaf ears. Politically, association with US policy is becoming too
heavy a burden to carry.
This is an opportunity for Europe to step in and get
involved. For one, continuation on the present path of acquiescence to the US
is likely to bring about only greater calamity and further instability. Second,
the region itself is looking for alternative approaches as it recognizes the
shallowness of the US message. Third, Europe has what the Gulf needs:
Experience in overcoming historical animosity and establishing a system whereby
individual states can maintain their diverse and competing cultures while
working together in the pursuit of collective prosperity.
Suggestions that Europe is unable to offer concrete solutions
to the region's problems indicate a misunderstanding of the actual nature of
the challenge. Europe cannot replace the US in the Gulf but it can certainly
provide alternatives and incentives where the current US approach falls
desperately short. This is particularly the case in conflict prevention and
confidence building. As underscored by the EU action in Macedonia in 2003,
conflict can be prevented if action is taken early enough. As shown by EU
expansion policy as a whole, old and existing threat perception and existing
mistrust can be broken down over time. The key is engagement of different
parties and across different levels.
Unfortunately until now, Europe, and by this one means both
the European Union as a collective unit and the European states as individual
actors, treats security issues in the Gulf and the Middle East as items that
are to be handled bilaterally. The EU-3 is negotiating with Iran even as the US
dictates the terms behind the curtain, Iraq is left almost solely to the US,
and the Arab-Israeli conflict is seen as the responsibility of the Quartet (US,
EU, Russia and the UN). In each of these cases, what is notably absent is the
region itself.
During all of his negotiations with Ali Larijani, the chief
negotiator of Iran on the nuclear program issue, EU foreign policy chief Javier
Solana has not once sought directly the position of the regional Arab Gulf
states or tried to use their backing as further political leverage. While the
Arab Gulf states acknowledge that there exists a right under the obligation of
the Non-Proliferation Treaty to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, not one
country sees the Iranian program as exactly that - peaceful. It is a program
intended to ultimately and firmly establish Iranian hegemony over the Gulf
region.
If the issue comes down to a choice between an Iranian
nuclear program and suffering from the potential Iranian retaliation in case of
a US military strike, the Arab Gulf will go with the second option. While one
can handle a few retaliatory or terrorist strikes, living in the shadow of an
Iranian nuclear bomb is not an option. This does not mean that the Arab Gulf
has signed up to the military option. Far from it, the two options listed above
do not really represent a choice.
This is where Europe comes in once again to encourage
regional dialogue and an exchange of views. The EU's priority is to resolve
conflict while the US preoccupation is with winning the conflict. Security in
the Gulf is too important for it to be left exclusively as the domain of the
US. Europe should know this by now.
- Dr. Christian Koch is the director of International Studies
at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. (GGNS)
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