WASHINGTON, July 28 — The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups. [...] http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html?hp
- The contracts traded on PAM (Poltical Analysis Market) will be based on objective data and observable events. These contracts will be valuable because traders who are registered with PAM will use their money to acquire contracts. A PAM trader who believes that the price of a specific futures contract under-predicts the future status of the issue on which it is based can attempt to profit from his belief by buying the contract. The converse holds for a trader who believes the price is an over-prediction – she can be a seller of the contract. This price discovery process, with the prospect of profit and at pain of loss, is at the core of a market’s predictive power. http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/pam_concept.htm - The DARPA FutureMAP program will identify the types of market-based mechanisms that are most suitable to aggregate information in the defense context, will develop information systems to manage the markets, and will measure the effectiveness of markets for several tasks. Open issues that will drive the types of market include information security and participant incentives. A market that addresses defense-related events may potentially aggregate information from both classified and unclassified sources. This poses the problem of extracting useful data from markets without compromising national security. Markets must also offer compensation that is ethically and legally satisfactory to all sectors involved, while remaining attractive enough to ensure full and continuous participation of individual parties. The markets must also be sufficiently robust to withstand manipulation. FutureMAP will bring together commercial, academic, and government performers to meet these challenges. http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm L'idea insomma e' la seguente. Usare la capacita' di predizione dei mercati in materia di politica estera. Di piu' non capisco anche se intuisco che si tratta di un salto di paradigma in questioni di sicurezza. Basti leggere il mission statement del DARPA IAO (Information Awarness Office). - The DARPA Information Awareness Office (IAO) will imagine, develop, apply, integrate, demonstrate, and transition information technologies, components, and prototype closed-loop information systems that will counter asymmetric threats by achieving total information awareness that is useful for preemption, national security warning, and national security decision making. http://www.darpa.mil/iao/index.htm Mi piacerebbe sentire l'opinione di chi e' piu' versato di me in materia economica e politica. Qualcuno ? ___________________________________________ http://rekombinant.org http://rekombinant.org/media-activism
