Berikut analis dari Mansek
Regards,
H4
"Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan"
*Squeeze out the juice*
*Unilever Indonesia made a shocking announcement yesterday,
raising the royalty charges it pays its parent firm from 3.5% of
revenue currently to a maximum of 8%. This is significantly
higher than the 3% median charged by other foreign subsidiaries
listed in Indonesia, and we cut our 2013-15F EPS forecasts by
6.3%, 13.0% and 19.5% respectively. We downgrade to SELL with
reduced T/P of Rp19,000/share, implying 28x 2013F PER*
**
*New royalty charges higher than the market.* In our discussion
with the company, it mentioned the change in royalty structure is
to strengten UNVR’s position as the exclusive Indonesian arm of
its parent company. But we are doubtful. We may see this as
another way to maximize return of its Indonesia investment. The
8% new royalty charges is significantly higher than the 3% median
charged by other foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia. Market
perception may change and questioning UNVR legit premium of
reputation. Interestingly, Unilever Global CEO made comment on
the other occasion on its bearish european business outlook.
*A value dragger transaction.* As we put the revision down in our
calculation, we cut UNVR EPS for 13F, 14F and 15F by 6.3%, 13.0%
and 19.5%, respectively. It suggests reduced dividend potential
which has been the main attraction for the company. This is even
assuming the same payout ratio, the EPS will be drastically
reduced, so will the DPS.
*Uprising competition set backs price power.* We are not
optimistic on UNVR pricing power that will likely limit its
ability to fully pass the higher charge to customers.
Intensifying market competition backs our view, especially noting
recent aggressive moves by major competitors such as P&G and
Wings. P&G will have a new factory next year, while Wings has
just made a big comeback with a new ad blast for its new So Klin
detergent, the close competitor of UNVR’s main product Rinso..
*SELL at TP Rp19,000/sh.* With added concern above, higher equity
risk is applied in UNVR and given single digit EPS growth over
the next three years, a valuation de-rating is likely. We capped
our PE 2013 at 28x to derive our new TP for UNVR of
Rp19,000/share. SELL.
*Octavius Oky Prakarsa***
+6221 5296 9547
[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
Plaza Mandiri 28th floor
Phone: +62 21 526 3445
Fax: +62 21 527 5711
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* "[email protected]"
<mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*To:* "[email protected]" <mailto:[email protected]>
<[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*Sent:* Thursday, December 13, 2012 1:20 PM
*Subject:* Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Hwahhh saya sudah ambil unvr pada penurunan kemarin, ternyata
skrng turun lg. :-( semoga lekas techreborn-nya.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * evita lusiani <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Sender: * [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
*Date: *Thu, 13 Dec 2012 13:00:00 +0800 (SGT)
*To: *<[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*ReplyTo: * [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
*Subject: *Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
UNVR stock fell in the morning after Unilever Indonesia
announced change in rate of royalty to be paid to Unilever NV
(parent company). The changes will be
done in stages from current royalty rate of ~3.5% sales to
estimated 5% sales in 2013, 6.5% sales in 2014, and 5% sales +
actual recovery cost up to 3% sales in 2015
--- Pada *Kam, 13/12/12, Rio Suki /<[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>/* menulis:
Dari: Rio Suki <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
Judul: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Kepada: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
Tanggal: Kamis, 13 Desember, 2012, 6:08 AM
Unvr setiap 6 bulan bikin candle yg panjang banget. Misal
jan12, june 12, and sekarang. Memang gayanya
Salam
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
<[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>;
*To: * [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>;
*Subject: * [saham] Saham UNVR
*Sent: * Wed, Dec 12, 2012 4:22:12 PM
Dear sahabat-sahabat kira-kira ada apa yah dengan saham
UNVR hari ini? Mohon info dan ulasannya. Dilihat dari
chartnya jarang sekali UNVR turun segitu dalam.
