thank's for share,
btw apakah semua nasabah mendapatkan berita ini? kalau iya kok saya
tidak dapat ya (saya nasabah mansek solo)
thanks,
rajim
On 12/12/2012 10:24 PM, H4 wrote:
Berikut analis dari Mansek
Regards,
H4
"Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan"
*Squeeze out the juice*
*Unilever Indonesia made a shocking announcement yesterday, raising
the royalty charges it pays its parent firm from 3.5% of revenue
currently to a maximum of 8%. This is significantly higher than the 3%
median charged by other foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia, and
we cut our 2013-15F EPS forecasts by 6.3%, 13.0% and 19.5%
respectively. We downgrade to SELL with reduced T/P of Rp19,000/share,
implying 28x 2013F PER*
**
*New royalty charges higher than the market.* In our discussion with
the company, it mentioned the change in royalty structure is to
strengten UNVR’s position as the exclusive Indonesian arm of its
parent company. But we are doubtful. We may see this as another way to
maximize return of its Indonesia investment. The 8% new royalty
charges is significantly higher than the 3% median charged by other
foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia. Market perception may change
and questioning UNVR legit premium of reputation. Interestingly,
Unilever Global CEO made comment on the other occasion on its bearish
european business outlook.
*A value dragger transaction.* As we put the revision down in our
calculation, we cut UNVR EPS for 13F, 14F and 15F by 6.3%, 13.0% and
19.5%, respectively. It suggests reduced dividend potential which has
been the main attraction for the company. This is even assuming the
same payout ratio, the EPS will be drastically reduced, so will the DPS.
*Uprising competition set backs price power.* We are not optimistic on
UNVR pricing power that will likely limit its ability to fully pass
the higher charge to customers. Intensifying market competition backs
our view, especially noting recent aggressive moves by major
competitors such as P&G and Wings. P&G will have a new factory next
year, while Wings has just made a big comeback with a new ad blast for
its new So Klin detergent, the close competitor of UNVR’s main product
Rinso..
*SELL at TP Rp19,000/sh.* With added concern above, higher equity risk
is applied in UNVR and given single digit EPS growth over the next
three years, a valuation de-rating is likely. We capped our PE 2013 at
28x to derive our new TP for UNVR of Rp19,000/share. SELL.
*Octavius Oky Prakarsa***
+6221 5296 9547
[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
Plaza Mandiri 28th floor
Phone: +62 21 526 3445
Fax: +62 21 527 5711
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
*To:* "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
*Sent:* Thursday, December 13, 2012 1:20 PM
*Subject:* Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Hwahhh saya sudah ambil unvr pada penurunan kemarin, ternyata
skrng turun lg. :-( semoga lekas techreborn-nya.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * evita lusiani <[email protected]>
*Sender: * [email protected]
*Date: *Thu, 13 Dec 2012 13:00:00 +0800 (SGT)
*To: *<[email protected]>
*ReplyTo: * [email protected]
*Subject: *Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
UNVR stock fell in the morning after Unilever Indonesia announced
change in rate of royalty to be paid to Unilever NV (parent
company). The changes will be
done in stages from current royalty rate of ~3.5% sales to
estimated 5% sales in 2013, 6.5% sales in 2014, and 5% sales +
actual recovery cost up to 3% sales in 2015
--- Pada *Kam, 13/12/12, Rio Suki /<[email protected]>/* menulis:
Dari: Rio Suki <[email protected]>
Judul: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Kepada: [email protected]
Tanggal: Kamis, 13 Desember, 2012, 6:08 AM
Unvr setiap 6 bulan bikin candle yg panjang banget. Misal
jan12, june 12, and sekarang. Memang gayanya
Salam
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * [email protected] <[email protected]>;
*To: * [email protected] <[email protected]>;
*Subject: * [saham] Saham UNVR
*Sent: * Wed, Dec 12, 2012 4:22:12 PM
Dear sahabat-sahabat kira-kira ada apa yah dengan saham UNVR
hari ini? Mohon info dan ulasannya. Dilihat dari chartnya
jarang sekali UNVR turun segitu dalam.
