Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Ken Hohhof
Referring to vaccine enhanced disease, where the disease is much worse if you 
still get it after receiving the vaccine?  Yeah, that would be ungood.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Robert
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 5:06 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

They have rushed vaccines into human trials in Seattle with people volunteering 
to be test subjects.   Probably did not get presented with the results of some 
of the early vaccines results for the original SARS when the testees were 
exposed and had way worse results that the control group...

On 3/28/20 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify people 
who had it, recovered, and may be immune.  This may be a key to determining who 
can safely go back to work.

 

Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes.  Wider 
testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test 
positive would need stricter isolation than those who test negative.  I suspect 
the current measures are not very effective stopping spread within families.

 

New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment.

 

I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 18 
months.  You’d think there could be some hope that could be accelerated, a 
certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted.  Otherwise we’re relying 
on recoveries for immunity.

 

From: AF  <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>  On Behalf 
Of Harold Bledsoe
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group  <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of 
how many infections there actually are.

 

Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland.  They have tested 
the highest % of population including people without symptoms.  This is 
possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)

 

https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

 

Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment 
a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate.

 

While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's 
still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not 
so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to 
the number of currently open ICU beds in most places.

 

This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number 
of infections.  I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be 
much lower than we are hearing.  But this thing moves fast and you have 
something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. 
something like 4 days for flu).  That a long time to spread the love around.

 

On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> > 
wrote:

With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.  

I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM

To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>  

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and 
Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It 
does get into the weeds somewhat.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

bp

 

On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>  wrote:

This is an interesting article:

 
<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/>
 
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

 

Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak 
is over.  

Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  

 


  _  


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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Robert
They have rushed vaccines into human trials in Seattle with people 
volunteering to be test subjects.   Probably did not get presented with 
the results of some of the early vaccines results for the original SARS 
when the testees were exposed and had way worse results that the control 
group...


On 3/28/20 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:


New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify 
people who had it, recovered, and may be immune.  This may be a key to 
determining who can safely go back to work.


Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes.  
Wider testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people 
who test positive would need stricter isolation than those who test 
negative.  I suspect the current measures are not very effective 
stopping spread within families.


New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment.

I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 
18 months.  You’d think there could be some hope that could be 
accelerated, a certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted.  
Otherwise we’re relying on recoveries for immunity.


*From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Harold Bledsoe
*Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the 
denominator of how many infections there actually are.


Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland.  They have 
tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.  
This is possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)


https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at 
the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization 
rate.


While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, 
there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU 
rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen 
all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most 
places.


This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much 
higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual 
fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing.  But this thing 
moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms 
that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu).  
That a long time to spread the love around.


On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:


With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.

I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.

*From:*Bill Prince

*Sent:*Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM

*To:*af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>

*Subject:*Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

This is another perspective referred to in this article called
"Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and
probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

bp



On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:

This is an interesting article:


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after
the initial peak is over.

Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into
that cycle.



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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Robert
Iceland looks like a "what it could be" positive result. vs. overwhelmed 
ICU's an short on ventilators negative result.   So IF we had the 
necessary number of ventilators we could expect this. Unfortunately we 
don't and so the results here are going to be worse.  How worse will 
depend upon social isolation working.
 Sure doesn't make me feel good seeing Reno looking at this to send 
all the construction crews out working on the roads and creating a new 
vector of spread...   "Oh yeah this is really bad, but let us just take 
advantage of this and ignore the risk we are creating"   So much FU 
going around...


On 3/28/20 1:40 PM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the 
denominator of how many infections there actually are.


Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland.  They have 
tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.  
This is possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)


https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at 
the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization 
rate.


While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, 
there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU 
rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen 
all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most 
places.


This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much 
higher number of infections.  I, for one, am encouraged that the 
actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing.  But this 
thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no 
symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for 
flu).  That a long time to spread the love around.


On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:


With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
    *To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

This is another perspective referred to in this article called
"Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and
probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

bp


On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

This is an interesting article:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after
the initial peak is over.
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into
that cycle.



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AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Bill Prince

  
  
In the segment they did on 60 minutes last Sunday, they
  interviewed two companies working on different strategies for a
  vaccine. The consensus was 12-18 months best case (at least that
  was my take on it).
bp



On 3/28/2020 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:


  
  
  
  
  
New York has FDA approval to start using an
  antibody test to identify people who had it, recovered, and
  may be immune.  This may be a key to determining who can
  safely go back to work.
 
Abbott has announced a test that can
  identify positives in 5 minutes.  Wider testing may be key to
  a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test positive
  would need stricter isolation than those who test negative.  I
  suspect the current measures are not very effective stopping
  spread within families.
 
New York is also trialing “convalescent
  plasma” as a treatment.
 
I haven’t heard much about attempts to
  approve a vaccine in less than 18 months.  You’d think there
  could be some hope that could be accelerated, a certain amount
  of risk tolerance might be warranted.  Otherwise we’re relying
  on recoveries for immunity.
 
From: AF
   On Behalf Of Harold
  Bledsoe
  Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
  
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
 

  What's missing in estimating the death
rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections
there actually are.
  
 
  
  
Arguably the best dataset we have at
  the moment is Iceland.  They have tested the highest % of
  population including people without symptoms.  This is
  possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)
  
  
 
  
  
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
  
  
 
  
  
Still, they have tested the highest
  percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death
  rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate.
  
  
 
  
  
While these are much better numbers
  than other estimates are saying, there's still some
  challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate,
  while not so large, is still too many to handle if they
  happen all at once compared to the number of currently
  open ICU beds in most places.
  
  
 
  
  
This also points to a reality that we
  probably have a much, much higher number of infections. 
  I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate
  may be much lower than we are hearing.  But this thing
  moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no
  symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something
  like 4 days for flu).  That a long time to spread the love
  around.
  

 

  
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com>
  wrote:
  
  

  

  
With all of
two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death
rate.  
  
  
I am
guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks
away.
  
  

  
 
  
  

  From:
  Bill Prince 


  Sent:
  Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM


  To:
  af@af.afmug.com
  


  Subject:
          Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

  


   

  
  
This
is another perspective referred to in this
article called "Hamm

Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Ken Hohhof
New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify people 
who had it, recovered, and may be immune.  This may be a key to determining who 
can safely go back to work.

 

Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes.  Wider 
testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test 
positive would need stricter isolation than those who test negative.  I suspect 
the current measures are not very effective stopping spread within families.

 

New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment.

 

I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 18 
months.  You’d think there could be some hope that could be accelerated, a 
certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted.  Otherwise we’re relying 
on recoveries for immunity.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Harold Bledsoe
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of 
how many infections there actually are.

 

Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland.  They have tested 
the highest % of population including people without symptoms.  This is 
possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)

 

https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

 

Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment 
a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate.

 

While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's 
still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not 
so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to 
the number of currently open ICU beds in most places.

 

This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number 
of infections.  I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be 
much lower than we are hearing.  But this thing moves fast and you have 
something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. 
something like 4 days for flu).  That a long time to spread the love around.

 

On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> > 
wrote:

With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.  

I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM

To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>  

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and 
Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It 
does get into the weeds somewhat.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

bp

 

On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>  wrote:

This is an interesting article:

 
<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/>
 
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

 

Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak 
is over.  

Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  

 


  _  


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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Bill Prince

  
  
Several troubling aspects to this. The percent of false negatives
  and false positives seems extremely high. And asymptomatic
  carriers do not count as a "case".
  
  https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive


bp



On 3/28/2020 1:40 PM, Harold Bledsoe
  wrote:


  
  What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU
rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually
are.


Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is
  Iceland.  They have tested the highest % of population
  including people without symptoms.  This is possible because
  they don't have a huge population.  ;-)


https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/



Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are
  showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2%
  overall hospitalization rate.


While these are much better numbers than other estimates
  are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one
  being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too
  many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the
  number of currently open ICU beds in most places.


This also points to a reality that we probably have a much,
  much higher number of infections.  I, for one, am encouraged
  that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are
  hearing.  But this thing moves fast and you have something
  like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14
  days (vs. something like 4 days for flu).  That a long time to
  spread the love around.
  
  
  
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46
  AM <ch...@wbmfg.com>
  wrote:


  

  
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4%
  death rate.  
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks
  away.

  
 

  From: Bill Prince 
  Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com 
          Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

  
   


  This is another perspective referred to in this
article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what
the various options and probable outcomes might be.
It does get into the weeds somewhat.
  https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
   
  bp



  On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
wrote:
  
  

  
This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
 
Note the double boom if you relax your
  social distancing after the initial peak is
  over.  
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We
  are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  
  



  
  
  
  
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  -- 
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  -- 
  
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Harold Bledsoe
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator
of how many infections there actually are.

Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland.  They have
tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.  This
is possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)

https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the
moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate.

While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying,
there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU
rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at
once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places.

This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher
number of infections.  I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality
rate may be much lower than we are hearing.  But this thing moves fast and
you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for
14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu).  That a long time to spread
the love around.

On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM  wrote:

> With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.
> I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
>
>
> This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and
> Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might
> be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.
>
>
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
>
>
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> This is an interesting article:
>
> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
>
> Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial
> peak is over.
> Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that
> cycle.
>
> --
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>


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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Robert
This is _optimistic_   Around April 15 for most everywhere in the US... 
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR3m66Dc-PAE0or9wTv8ZmLRwf2Y5dLp0HaLXzUGYk_ZTkh555hZvRp1xjQ


On 3/28/20 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer 
and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes 
might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

bp


On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the 
initial peak is over.
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that 
cycle.




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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Mathew Howard
I got the paywall too, but I just hit the stop button before the paywall
loaded, and it worked fine.

On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:49 AM  wrote:

> Odd, it asked me for my email address to sign up for nat geo Covid
> articles but it let me through.
> I just googled nat geo covid and clicked on the link that came up.  First
> saw it on the phone but the link below came from the PC.
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:45 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
>
>
> I was blocked by their paywall.
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/28/2020 8:43 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone.  The one
> that came with the phone.  But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think.
>
> *From:* Ken Hohhof
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM
> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
>
>
> Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription?
>
>
>
> *From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
>
>
>
> This is an interesting article:
>
>
> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
>
>
>
> Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial
> peak is over.
>
> Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that
> cycle.
> --
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
> --
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
> --
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> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread chuck
Odd, it asked me for my email address to sign up for nat geo Covid articles but 
it let me through.  
I just googled nat geo covid and clicked on the link that came up.  First saw 
it on the phone but the link below came from the PC.  

From: Bill Prince 
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:45 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

I was blocked by their paywall.


bp


On 3/28/2020 8:43 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

  No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone.  The one 
that came with the phone.  But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think.  

  From: Ken Hohhof 
  Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM
  To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

  Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription?

   

  From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
  Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

   

  This is an interesting article:

  
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

   

  Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial 
peak is over.  

  Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  


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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread chuck
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.  
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.

From: Bill Prince 
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and 
Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It 
does get into the weeds somewhat.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



bp


On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

  This is an interesting article:
  
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

  Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial 
peak is over.  
  Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  

   



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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Bill Prince

  
  
I was blocked by their paywall.

bp



On 3/28/2020 8:43 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
  wrote:


  
  
  
  

  No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my
iphone.  The one that came with the phone.  But I don’t
subscribe to it I don’t think.  
  

   
  
From: Ken
Hohhof 
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users
Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
  

 
  
  

  Do you get that with your Apple News+
subscription?
   
  

  From: AF
 On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

  
   
  

  
This is an interesting article:
  
  
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
  
  
 
  
  
Note the double boom if you relax
your social distancing after the initial peak is
over.  
  
  
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people
dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  
  

  




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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread chuck
No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone.  The one that 
came with the phone.  But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think.  

From: Ken Hohhof 
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription?

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

This is an interesting article:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

 

Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak 
is over.  

Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  




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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread can...@believewireless.net
Either way this goes, I'll be curious to see what the data in the US is
after the fact. I feel both sides win either way.

If virus is contained:
1.Social distancing worked.
2. Social distancing wasn't necessary.

If virus isn't contained:
1. We needed to social distance earlier.
2. Social distancing didn't matter.

On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 11:37 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

> Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription?
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
>
>
>
> This is an interesting article:
>
>
> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
>
>
>
> Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial
> peak is over.
>
> Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that
> cycle.
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Ken Hohhof
Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription?

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

 

This is an interesting article:

 
<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-cur
ve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/>
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curv
e-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

 

Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial
peak is over.  

Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread Bill Prince

  
  
This is another perspective referred to in this article called
  "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and
  probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56


bp



On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
  wrote:


  
  

  This is an interesting article:
  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
   
  Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing
after the initial peak is over.  
  Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks
into that cycle.  

  
  
  

  


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[AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

2020-03-28 Thread chuck
This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak 
is over.  
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.  -- 
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