Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
Referring to vaccine enhanced disease, where the disease is much worse if you still get it after receiving the vaccine? Yeah, that would be ungood. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8 From: AF On Behalf Of Robert Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 5:06 PM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics They have rushed vaccines into human trials in Seattle with people volunteering to be test subjects. Probably did not get presented with the results of some of the early vaccines results for the original SARS when the testees were exposed and had way worse results that the control group... On 3/28/20 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote: New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify people who had it, recovered, and may be immune. This may be a key to determining who can safely go back to work. Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes. Wider testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test positive would need stricter isolation than those who test negative. I suspect the current measures are not very effective stopping spread within families. New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment. I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 18 months. You’d think there could be some hope that could be accelerated, a certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted. Otherwise we’re relying on recoveries for immunity. From: AF <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Harold Bledsoe Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually are. Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms. This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-) https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/ Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate. While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places. This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu). That a long time to spread the love around. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> > wrote: With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. From: Bill Prince Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: This is an interesting article: <https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. _ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- Harold Bledsoe -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
They have rushed vaccines into human trials in Seattle with people volunteering to be test subjects. Probably did not get presented with the results of some of the early vaccines results for the original SARS when the testees were exposed and had way worse results that the control group... On 3/28/20 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote: New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify people who had it, recovered, and may be immune. This may be a key to determining who can safely go back to work. Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes. Wider testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test positive would need stricter isolation than those who test negative. I suspect the current measures are not very effective stopping spread within families. New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment. I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 18 months. You’d think there could be some hope that could be accelerated, a certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted. Otherwise we’re relying on recoveries for immunity. *From:* AF *On Behalf Of *Harold Bledsoe *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually are. Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms. This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-) https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/ Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate. While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places. This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu). That a long time to spread the love around. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote: With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. *From:*Bill Prince *Sent:*Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM *To:*af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> *Subject:*Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- Harold Bledsoe -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
Iceland looks like a "what it could be" positive result. vs. overwhelmed
ICU's an short on ventilators negative result. So IF we had the
necessary number of ventilators we could expect this. Unfortunately we
don't and so the results here are going to be worse. How worse will
depend upon social isolation working.
Sure doesn't make me feel good seeing Reno looking at this to send
all the construction crews out working on the roads and creating a new
vector of spread... "Oh yeah this is really bad, but let us just take
advantage of this and ignore the risk we are creating" So much FU
going around...
On 3/28/20 1:40 PM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the
denominator of how many infections there actually are.
Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have
tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.
This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-)
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at
the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization
rate.
While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying,
there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU
rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen
all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most
places.
This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much
higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the
actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this
thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no
symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for
flu). That a long time to spread the love around.
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is another perspective referred to in this article called
"Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and
probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
bp
On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after
the initial peak is over.
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into
that cycle.
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
Harold Bledsoe
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
In the segment they did on 60 minutes last Sunday, they
interviewed two companies working on different strategies for a
vaccine. The consensus was 12-18 months best case (at least that
was my take on it).
bp
On 3/28/2020 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
New York has FDA approval to start using an
antibody test to identify people who had it, recovered, and
may be immune. This may be a key to determining who can
safely go back to work.
Abbott has announced a test that can
identify positives in 5 minutes. Wider testing may be key to
a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test positive
would need stricter isolation than those who test negative. I
suspect the current measures are not very effective stopping
spread within families.
New York is also trialing “convalescent
plasma” as a treatment.
I haven’t heard much about attempts to
approve a vaccine in less than 18 months. You’d think there
could be some hope that could be accelerated, a certain amount
of risk tolerance might be warranted. Otherwise we’re relying
on recoveries for immunity.
From: AF
On Behalf Of Harold
Bledsoe
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
What's missing in estimating the death
rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections
there actually are.
Arguably the best dataset we have at
the moment is Iceland. They have tested the highest % of
population including people without symptoms. This is
possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-)
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
Still, they have tested the highest
percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death
rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate.
While these are much better numbers
than other estimates are saying, there's still some
challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate,
while not so large, is still too many to handle if they
happen all at once compared to the number of currently
open ICU beds in most places.
This also points to a reality that we
probably have a much, much higher number of infections.
I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate
may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing
moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no
symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something
like 4 days for flu). That a long time to spread the love
around.
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com>
wrote:
With all of
two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death
rate.
I am
guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks
away.
From:
Bill Prince
Sent:
Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
To:
af@af.afmug.com
Subject:
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This
is another perspective referred to in this
article called "Hamm
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify people who had it, recovered, and may be immune. This may be a key to determining who can safely go back to work. Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes. Wider testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test positive would need stricter isolation than those who test negative. I suspect the current measures are not very effective stopping spread within families. New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment. I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 18 months. You’d think there could be some hope that could be accelerated, a certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted. Otherwise we’re relying on recoveries for immunity. From: AF On Behalf Of Harold Bledsoe Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually are. Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms. This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-) https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/ Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate. While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places. This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu). That a long time to spread the love around. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> > wrote: With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. From: Bill Prince Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: This is an interesting article: <https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. _ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- Harold Bledsoe -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
Several troubling aspects to this. The percent of false negatives
and false positives seems extremely high. And asymptomatic
carriers do not count as a "case".
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive
bp
On 3/28/2020 1:40 PM, Harold Bledsoe
wrote:
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU
rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually
are.
Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is
Iceland. They have tested the highest % of population
including people without symptoms. This is possible because
they don't have a huge population. ;-)
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are
showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2%
overall hospitalization rate.
While these are much better numbers than other estimates
are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one
being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too
many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the
number of currently open ICU beds in most places.
This also points to a reality that we probably have a much,
much higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged
that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are
hearing. But this thing moves fast and you have something
like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14
days (vs. something like 4 days for flu). That a long time to
spread the love around.
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46
AM <ch...@wbmfg.com>
wrote:
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4%
death rate.
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks
away.
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is another perspective referred to in this
article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what
the various options and probable outcomes might be.
It does get into the weeds somewhat.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
bp
On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
wrote:
This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Note the double boom if you relax your
social distancing after the initial peak is
over.
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We
are 2.5 weeks into that cycle.
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
Harold Bledsoe
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually are. Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms. This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-) https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/ Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate. While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places. This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu). That a long time to spread the love around. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM wrote: > With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. > I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. > > *From:* Bill Prince > *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM > *To:* af@af.afmug.com > *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics > > > This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and > Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might > be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. > > > https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 > > > > bp > > > > On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: > > This is an interesting article: > > https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ > > Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial > peak is over. > Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that > cycle. > > -- > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com > > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com > -- Harold Bledsoe -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is _optimistic_ Around April 15 for most everywhere in the US... https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR3m66Dc-PAE0or9wTv8ZmLRwf2Y5dLp0HaLXzUGYk_ZTkh555hZvRp1xjQ On 3/28/20 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. *From:* Bill Prince *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM *To:* af@af.afmug.com *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
I got the paywall too, but I just hit the stop button before the paywall loaded, and it worked fine. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:49 AM wrote: > Odd, it asked me for my email address to sign up for nat geo Covid > articles but it let me through. > I just googled nat geo covid and clicked on the link that came up. First > saw it on the phone but the link below came from the PC. > > *From:* Bill Prince > *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:45 AM > *To:* af@af.afmug.com > *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics > > > I was blocked by their paywall. > > bp > > > > On 3/28/2020 8:43 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: > > No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone. The one > that came with the phone. But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think. > > *From:* Ken Hohhof > *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM > *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' > *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics > > > Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription? > > > > *From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com > *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM > *To:* af@af.afmug.com > *Subject:* [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics > > > > This is an interesting article: > > > https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ > > > > Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial > peak is over. > > Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that > cycle. > -- > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com > > -- > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com > > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com > -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
Odd, it asked me for my email address to sign up for nat geo Covid articles but it let me through. I just googled nat geo covid and clicked on the link that came up. First saw it on the phone but the link below came from the PC. From: Bill Prince Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:45 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics I was blocked by their paywall. bp On 3/28/2020 8:43 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone. The one that came with the phone. But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription? From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. From: Bill Prince Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
I was blocked by their paywall. bp On 3/28/2020 8:43 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone. The one that came with the phone. But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription? From: AF On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
No, it just automagically appeared on my news icon on my iphone. The one that came with the phone. But I don’t subscribe to it I don’t think. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:36 AM To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription? From: AF On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
Either way this goes, I'll be curious to see what the data in the US is after the fact. I feel both sides win either way. If virus is contained: 1.Social distancing worked. 2. Social distancing wasn't necessary. If virus isn't contained: 1. We needed to social distance earlier. 2. Social distancing didn't matter. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 11:37 AM Ken Hohhof wrote: > Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription? > > > > *From:* AF *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com > *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM > *To:* af@af.afmug.com > *Subject:* [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics > > > > This is an interesting article: > > > https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ > > > > Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial > peak is over. > > Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that > cycle. > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com > -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
Do you get that with your Apple News+ subscription? From: AF On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:22 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is an interesting article: <https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-cur ve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curv e-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
[AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is an interesting article: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
