[AsburyPark] Re: Shortages at food banks worst in 26 years

2007-12-10 Thread evosap
sorry about resurrecting such an old post but

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10252015




Economist.com   




Food prices

The end of cheap food
Dec 6th 2007
From The Economist print edition


Rising food prices are a threat to many; they also present the world
with an enormous opportunity

FOR as long as most people can remember, food has been getting cheaper
and farming has been in decline. In 1974-2005 food prices on world
markets fell by three-quarters in real terms. Food today is so cheap
that the West is battling gluttony even as it scrapes piles of
half-eaten leftovers into the bin.

That is why this year's price rise has been so extraordinary. Since
the spring, wheat prices have doubled and almost every crop under the
sun—maize, milk, oilseeds, you name it—is at or near a peak in nominal
terms. The Economist's food-price index is higher today than at any
time since it was created in 1845 (see chart). Even in real terms,
prices have jumped by 75% since 2005. No doubt farmers will meet
higher prices with investment and more production, but dearer food is
likely to persist for years (see article). That is because agflation
is underpinned by long-running changes in diet that accompany the
growing wealth of emerging economies—the Chinese consumer who ate 20kg
(44lb) of meat in 1985 will scoff over 50kg of the stuff this year.
That in turn pushes up demand for grain: it takes 8kg of grain to
produce one of beef.

But the rise in prices is also the self-inflicted result of America's
reckless ethanol subsidies. This year biofuels will take a third of
America's (record) maize harvest. That affects food markets directly:
fill up an SUV's fuel tank with ethanol and you have used enough maize
to feed a person for a year. And it affects them indirectly, as
farmers switch to maize from other crops. The 30m tonnes of extra
maize going to ethanol this year amounts to half the fall in the
world's overall grain stocks.

Dearer food has the capacity to do enormous good and enormous harm. It
will hurt urban consumers, especially in poor countries, by increasing
the price of what is already the most expensive item in their
household budgets. It will benefit farmers and agricultural
communities by increasing the rewards of their labour; in many poor
rural places it will boost the most important source of jobs and
economic growth.

Although the cost of food is determined by fundamental patterns of
demand and supply, the balance between good and ill also depends in
part on governments. If politicians do nothing, or the wrong things,
the world faces more misery, especially among the urban poor. If they
get policy right, they can help increase the wealth of the poorest
nations, aid the rural poor, rescue farming from subsidies and
neglect—and minimise the harm to the slum-dwellers and landless
labourers. So far, the auguries look gloomy.

In the trough

That, at least, is the lesson of half a century of food policy.
Whatever the supposed threat—the lack of food security, rural poverty,
environmental stewardship—the world seems to have only one solution:
government intervention. Most of the subsidies and trade barriers have
come at a huge cost. The trillions of dollars spent supporting farmers
in rich countries have led to higher taxes, worse food, intensively
farmed monocultures, overproduction and world prices that wreck the
lives of poor farmers in the emerging markets. And for what? Despite
the help, plenty of Western farmers have been beset by poverty.
Increasing productivity means you need fewer farmers, which steadily
drives the least efficient off the land. Even a vast subsidy cannot
reverse that.

With agflation, policy has reached a new level of self-parody. Take
America's supposedly verdant ethanol subsidies. It is not just that
they are supporting a relatively dirty version of ethanol (far better
to import Brazil's sugar-based liquor); they are also offsetting older
grain subsidies that lowered prices by encouraging overproduction.
Intervention multiplies like lies. Now countries such as Russia and
Venezuela have imposed price controls—an aid to consumers—to offset
America's aid to ethanol producers. Meanwhile, high grain prices are
persuading people to clear forests to plant more maize.

Dearer food is a chance to break this dizzying cycle. Higher market
prices make it possible to reduce subsidies without hurting incomes. A
farm bill is now going through America's Congress. The European Union
has promised a root-and-branch review (not yet reform) of its
farm-support scheme. The reforms of the past few decades have, in
fact, grappled with the rich world's farm programmes—but only timidly.
Now comes the chance for politicians to show that they are serious
when they say they want to put agriculture right.

Cutting rich-world subsidies and trade barriers would help taxpayers;
it could revive the stalled Doha round of world trade talks, boosting
the 

[AsburyPark] Why AP will work year round

2007-12-10 Thread dfsavgny

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/travel/escapes/07deep.html?ref=realestate



 
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[AsburyPark] FYI _ Housing

2007-12-10 Thread dfsavgny
ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Sad to say, it's becoming increasingly clear that the national housing
picture has turned much more gory than anyone might have imagined;
likewise, repeated Wall Street forecasts that a meaningful housing
rebound will kick off by mid-2008 appear to have little or no legitimacy.

Some housing industry experts suggest the implications are ominous,
that the worsening housing slump will accelerate the likelihood of a
recession despite a rise in the number of working Americans, and will
play havoc with the stock market.

Taking note of the growing number of negative housing stories
appearing on TV and in newspapers, a veteran real estate developer,
Robert Sheridan, tells me: The press, unlike Wall Street, is finally
getting the message. Housing is not in a slump, but in a deepening
recession that has at least another two to four years to run; it's
also in the midst of a serious readjustment of prices.

He figures that the readjustment will eventually see prices of
single-family homes plummet 10% to 20% and condominiums tumble 20% to
40%. The picture is getting darker and darker by the day, he says.
Turning around housing will be like turning around a battleship.

Further, the CEO of Chicago-based Robert Sheridan  Partners, who has
been developing homes around the country since 1975, says he believes
it will take another year or two before the mortgage market
stabilizes. He also sees at least 2 million foreclosures over the next
two years.

Ridiculing repeated Wall Street forecasts of a second-half turnaround
in 2008, Mr. Sheridan argues: They're dead wrong; the forecasters
must be smoking something.

The latest worrisome housing trends and figures strongly indicate the
Street may indeed be way too euphoric about an impending recovery. In
brief:

• Amid slowing housing demand, a near record 4.45 million existing
homes are on the market, versus roughly 2.5 million in the late 1990s.

• Foreclosure filings are ballooning. There were 224,451 in October,
up 94% from October 2006.

• New home prices last month fell 13% from year-earlier levels, the
biggest drop since 1970, while the median price of existing homes
dropped 5.1%, the single largest monthly decline ever.

• A recent Federal Reserve study shows a record 40.8% of lenders have
tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages, which should
further depress housing sales.

• At the end of September, about 6% of mortgage borrowers were behind
in their payments, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
That's up from 4.6% a year earlier, and it's the worst reading since 1986.

• A record 0.78% of all American mortgages entered foreclosure in the
September quarter, and the overall foreclosure rate jumped to 1.69%,
the highest since 1982.

• Estimates are making the rounds that over the next year new home
prices will drop 13%, while existing home prices will fall 15%.

Reflecting these developments, investment adviser Michael Larson, a
dogged housing industry tracker, concludes that the housing downturn
has at least another year to go and could easily spill over into 2009.
As a result, he sees further sales weakness and at least another 5% to
10% decline in home prices. I think the sellers are finally getting
the message and cutting prices, he says.

He takes a dim view of the government's plan to ease the crisis by
freezing rates on subprime mortgages. That's no panacea, certainly
not a cure-all, Mr. Larson, associate editor of the Safe Money
Report, a monthly newsletter in Jupiter, Fla., says. It's difficult
to see how you're going to get everyone on the same page, he
observes, referring to such participants as the developer, banker,
investor, and those who service the mortgage. You have to get a lot
of parties to agree to a freeze; it won't be easy. He further notes
that 40% to 60% of homeowners whose loans are modified eventually
still default.

Some smaller homebuilders have already filed for bankruptcy, and Mr.
Larsen looks for more of the same from the larger publicly owned
ranks. In particular, he points to Standard Pacific and Beazer Homes.
His newsletter has already expressed similar sentiments about troubled
Countrywide Financial, the country's largest mortgage lender.

Making matters worse, the mortgage and housing crises, Mr. Larson
says, could cost investors and banks some $400 billion from
write-downs and losses on mortgage-related securities. He further
cites estimated total losses to household wealth of between $2
trillion and $4 trillion.

It all sounds pretty ugly, but our two housing bears see an even
uglier tone, with both telling me the worst is yet to come.



 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Why AP will work year round

2007-12-10 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/travel/escapes/07deep.html?ref=realestate



And there are tons of houses for sale south of AC. At least 5 per
block. Also, more development in AC - because AC is more and more a
year round resort. Entertainment, shopping and food. America



 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Why AP will work year round

2007-12-10 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 And there are tons of houses for sale south of AC. At least 5 per
 block. Also, more development in AC - because AC is more and more a
 year round resort. Entertainment, shopping and food. America

Yes, and it is fine for people further south, or from Philly. AP works
for us Yankees.




 
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[AsburyPark] When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread wernerapnj
Builder puts Asbury high-rise project on hold

By NANCY SHIELDS
COASTAL MONMOUTH BUREAU 

The Hoboken developer building the 224-unit Esperanza high-rise on 
the city's beachfront says it is temporarily closing down the 
construction site and sales office.

Dean Geibel, president of Metro Homes, said the company recently 
informed the city that it was halting construction and sale until 
such time market conditions allows us to move forward and 
successfully complete this important luxury beachfront development.

Full story:

http://tinyurl.com/3632jc

---

The key to a good Redevlopment plan is to diversify land uses and 
anticipate changes in regional economics.

Doing so would have assured that no single 'land use' dictated the 
future economic success of the City.

Werner




 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread rkgsx
WOW.  That's really, really, bad.





 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread Jack Pitzer
Oh great.
C-8 anyone?
Now we are going to have a partially complete constuction site to further make 
our 
oceanfront area look like crap.
Awesome.
Predictions for the both long and short term health of the real estate market 
are 
depressing and scary, and not going to be solved anytime soon.
This is going to hurt our city.

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Builder puts Asbury high-rise project on hold
 
 By NANCY SHIELDS
 COASTAL MONMOUTH BUREAU 
 
 The Hoboken developer building the 224-unit Esperanza high-rise on 
 the city's beachfront says it is temporarily closing down the 
 construction site and sales office.
 
 Dean Geibel, president of Metro Homes, said the company recently 
 informed the city that it was halting construction and sale until 
 such time market conditions allows us to move forward and 
 successfully complete this important luxury beachfront development.
 
 Full story:
 
 http://tinyurl.com/3632jc
 
 ---
 
 The key to a good Redevlopment plan is to diversify land uses and 
 anticipate changes in regional economics.
 
 Doing so would have assured that no single 'land use' dictated the 
 future economic success of the City.
 
 Werner






 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Builder puts Asbury high-rise project on hold
 
 By NANCY SHIELDS
 COASTAL MONMOUTH BUREAU 
 
 The Hoboken developer building the 224-unit Esperanza high-rise on 
 the city's beachfront says it is temporarily closing down the 
 construction site and sales office.

Absolutely disasterous.

I am quite aware of difficulties being experienced by developers even
in NYC, which appears on the surface to be the healthiest market.

The cost and availability of financing is drastically different than
it was a few months ago. Most lenders are out of the market and those
that are in are charging much higher rates and requiring much more equity.

What troubles me is Dean's talk of redesigning the project. Hmmm. What
does that mean? Either your plan was sound or it was not. Are they
looking simply to spend less money or did they misjudge the market,
regardless of the credit crisis?

What troubles me is that some of us said that this might become
another C-8. I hope not.

But, how long will the city allow it to be mothballed? How long will
we have to sit with another unfinished project?

The CAFRA permit was received in 2004. The residential market and
interest rates did not start to hiccup until the second half of 2006.
Deals to subdevelopers should have been in the works while the CAFRA
was pending.

I know, I am going back on my recent pledge to move forward and not
cry over spilled milk. Not really. But this is what Partners' and its
greed has wrought and what we allowed them to do.

I am sure the construction lenders simply reneged on their
committments. Metro is not the only one in this position. But the
financing can be had. More equity must be put in. They paid toomuch
for the land.

If summer rolls around and that site is idle, it will be validation of
all the naysayers who said not to believe that this city could come
back. If they are not going to build, make it a park. The worse thing
to have is another C-8 hanging around.




 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread Jack Pitzer
This is a clear sign that validates something many of us have said for a long 
time...The 
Asbury beachfront was never meant to be condo city.
This would be the perfect moment to get Asbury Partners the hell out of here, 
and begin 
redeveloping toward the direction it always should've been...entertainment.

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj wernerapnj@ wrote:
 
  Builder puts Asbury high-rise project on hold
  
  By NANCY SHIELDS
  COASTAL MONMOUTH BUREAU 
  
  The Hoboken developer building the 224-unit Esperanza high-rise on 
  the city's beachfront says it is temporarily closing down the 
  construction site and sales office.
 
 Absolutely disasterous.
 
 I am quite aware of difficulties being experienced by developers even
 in NYC, which appears on the surface to be the healthiest market.
 
 The cost and availability of financing is drastically different than
 it was a few months ago. Most lenders are out of the market and those
 that are in are charging much higher rates and requiring much more equity.
 
 What troubles me is Dean's talk of redesigning the project. Hmmm. What
 does that mean? Either your plan was sound or it was not. Are they
 looking simply to spend less money or did they misjudge the market,
 regardless of the credit crisis?
 
 What troubles me is that some of us said that this might become
 another C-8. I hope not.
 
 But, how long will the city allow it to be mothballed? How long will
 we have to sit with another unfinished project?
 
 The CAFRA permit was received in 2004. The residential market and
 interest rates did not start to hiccup until the second half of 2006.
 Deals to subdevelopers should have been in the works while the CAFRA
 was pending.
 
 I know, I am going back on my recent pledge to move forward and not
 cry over spilled milk. Not really. But this is what Partners' and its
 greed has wrought and what we allowed them to do.
 
 I am sure the construction lenders simply reneged on their
 committments. Metro is not the only one in this position. But the
 financing can be had. More equity must be put in. They paid toomuch
 for the land.
 
 If summer rolls around and that site is idle, it will be validation of
 all the naysayers who said not to believe that this city could come
 back. If they are not going to build, make it a park. The worse thing
 to have is another C-8 hanging around.






 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Jack Pitzer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 This would be the perfect moment to get Asbury Partners the hell
out of here

How?




 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread Jack Pitzer
Good question. I wish I had an answer. Reading Fishman's comments at the end of 
that article 
makes my blood boil.

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Jack Pitzer hinge98@ wrote:
 
  This would be the perfect moment to get Asbury Partners the hell
 out of here
 
 How?






 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Jack Pitzer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Good question. I wish I had an answer. Reading Fishman's comments at
the end of that article 
 makes my blood boil.


Well those are perhaps a key to the whole thing.

Fishman said he could not discuss if his company could decrease the
amount of money it is to make from the Esperanza as the master developer.


Is Metro using this as a lever in its negotiations with Partners? Why
are we being used as a bargaining chip?

Not having something built there is better than having something
(again) unfinished. Which is why when I was fighting the ability of
Metro to rebuild to the old C-8 height when the plan said it could not
if demolished I was against giving Metro a gift.

The developer is not your buddy. While you can cooperate, it is a
naturally adversarial role that a city must take. Who is our friend now?

Something doesn't make sense. If this was intended to be a temporary
postponement to regroup and line up additional financing and equity,
why not keep it quiet? No one would have noticed a slowdown during the
winter.




 
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[AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread 2fine4u
Looks like that site has a curse on it!

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, rkgsx [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 WOW.  That's really, really, bad.





 
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Re: [AsburyPark] Re: When a City Relies on a Myopic Plan....

2007-12-10 Thread lightgrw
Or at least take another look on whether or not it is wise (for anyone) 
to have so many condo projects undergoing at the same time.   Maybe they 
should go from one finished project to another rather than hope there's 
enough people to want to move to Asbury to fill all of the places planned.


Jack Pitzer wrote:

 This is a clear sign that validates something many of us have said for 
 a long time...The
 Asbury beachfront was never meant to be condo city.
 This would be the perfect moment to get Asbury Partners the hell out 
 of here, and begin
 redeveloping toward the direction it always should've 
 been...entertainment.

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com 
 mailto:AsburyPark%40yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com 
 mailto:AsburyPark%40yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj wernerapnj@ wrote:
  
   Builder puts Asbury high-rise project on hold
  
   By NANCY SHIELDS
   COASTAL MONMOUTH BUREAU
  
   The Hoboken developer building the 224-unit Esperanza high-rise on
   the city's beachfront says it is temporarily closing down the
   construction site and sales office.
 
  Absolutely disasterous.
 
  I am quite aware of difficulties being experienced by developers even
  in NYC, which appears on the surface to be the healthiest market.
 
  The cost and availability of financing is drastically different than
  it was a few months ago. Most lenders are out of the market and those
  that are in are charging much higher rates and requiring much more 
 equity.
 
  What troubles me is Dean's talk of redesigning the project. Hmmm. What
  does that mean? Either your plan was sound or it was not. Are they
  looking simply to spend less money or did they misjudge the market,
  regardless of the credit crisis?
 
  What troubles me is that some of us said that this might become
  another C-8. I hope not.
 
  But, how long will the city allow it to be mothballed? How long will
  we have to sit with another unfinished project?
 
  The CAFRA permit was received in 2004. The residential market and
  interest rates did not start to hiccup until the second half of 2006.
  Deals to subdevelopers should have been in the works while the CAFRA
  was pending.
 
  I know, I am going back on my recent pledge to move forward and not
  cry over spilled milk. Not really. But this is what Partners' and its
  greed has wrought and what we allowed them to do.
 
  I am sure the construction lenders simply reneged on their
  committments. Metro is not the only one in this position. But the
  financing can be had. More equity must be put in. They paid toomuch
  for the land.
 
  If summer rolls around and that site is idle, it will be validation of
  all the naysayers who said not to believe that this city could come
  back. If they are not going to build, make it a park. The worse thing
  to have is another C-8 hanging around.
 

  



 
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[AsburyPark] Hey - what about that old budget.

2007-12-10 Thread oakdorf
Don't worry.

The state will now have to cover AP for at least another 5 years.


The esp at this point was 12-18 months from being complete.







 
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[AsburyPark] Cut the loss

2007-12-10 Thread oakdorf
Maybe it just came down to economics.
 
To finish they probably have to go another $100m or more. Also, what
would the redesign be - two big rectangles  - no swooping finish no
cabanas or carpeting vs marble? What no one wants to pay an extra $30
or 40k here yet to park their car?

Most people want to spend $375,000 to $800,00 for a second home. Then
there are those that can do more but so are their options.

And..lots of times its cheaper to RENT then to OWN - especially if
you're unsure about the development.

Also, seeing N.Beach not really sold or occupied and Wesley Grove
almost empty -isn't reassuring.

You need to fill Wesley Grove. You'll need to fill The Blu, The
Griffin, Steinbach and the rest of them. 





 
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[AsburyPark] This too shall pass.

2007-12-10 Thread Paul Vail
It's always darkest before the dawn.





 
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[AsburyPark] on Giving Trees on Wii

2007-12-10 Thread oakdorf
Had to stop at Starbucks at Seaview on 66.

On the way out, I noticed a gift wish basket.

A name, followed by: (partial list)

Hooded Jacket
sweatshirt
size 7 shoes
jeans

mountain bike


Then another:
Queen size sheets,
Clothes
Blanket


That was 2 real simple lists. Seemed real.






 
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[AsburyPark] Re: This too shall pass.

2007-12-10 Thread evosap
oh good, does that mean you'll be leaving?  Greed always falls.  No
town needs million dollar condos.



 
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[AsburyPark] Re: my daughter

2007-12-10 Thread evosap
haunted by corruption and greed.



 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Delusions of Grandeur

2007-12-10 Thread evosap
you are ridiculous!  i didn't like the shit on the bwalk...i loved ap
despite itdoesn't seem like the millionaires will be payin the
taxes  either,   and where did i call for anarchy?  wake you!  how
many times can the same story fail before people call out the
bullshitters and the greedy.  admit it your delusions didn't serve...



 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Cut the loss

2007-12-10 Thread evosap
of course it comes down to economics, and people who don't understand
economics but love the idea of millionaires on the beach.



 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Delusions of Grandeur

2007-12-10 Thread evosap
oh I just figured out where your call for anarchy comment came
fromthe open seats on city council...that's called democracy. 
when leaders fail, they get replaced...something my family and maybe
yours fought hard for a few hundred years ago.  





 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Cut the loss

2007-12-10 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, evosap [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 of course it comes down to economics, and people who don't understand
 economics but love the idea of millionaires on the beach.


actually for someone coming in at the lower end of the pricing were getting 
some of the best 
value in Monmouth County, depending on how you define value. Not all millon $ 
homes. 
Same for Wesley. 

Same for units that would of been rented year round or using the condo/hotel 
approach.

Wait and see what happens. There is a shortage of oceanfront rentals and  hotel 
space.



 
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