Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
On Sat, Nov 06, 2004 at 09:13:38PM -0500, Damon Agretto wrote: Right now, this becomes a very pertinent question for me. One of my relatives is of draftable age, and is a junior in college. Currently, I think he's becoming a bit of a screw-up (problems with alcohol abuse, and he's going to one of the top 20 universities in the country, so if he He could always join the reserve, dodge the draft, find religion, and run for president! -- Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
I'm wondering what your take is on the draft According to the CIA World Factbook http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/us.html the US has 2,124,164 (2004 est.) males reaching military age annually. The usual estimates are that the US military needs 100,000 more people, or 200,000 if you really worry, or 400,000 if you really think the military needs many many occupation troops. Even at the high end, the portion is one-fifth the numbers of men reaching military age annually, and presumably a draft would include women, too. One-fifth or one-tenth is too small a portion of the age cohort for a draft that is perceived in the US as legitimate. It looks more likely the government will raise pay enough to attract the extra recruits it needs. The only people that might be drafted are older experts, not your children, but you. -- Robert J. Chassell [EMAIL PROTECTED] GnuPG Key ID: 004B4AC8 http://www.rattlesnake.com http://www.teak.cc ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
If this group has some magnitude in numbers, then I imagine draft will not come back - except when the USA ceases to be an economically viable place to emigrate to. Some may be. Enlisting in the US Military has NEVER been subject to the condition of citizenship. Any person can qualify to join the Army, no matter what country they come from, or what citizenship they hold (barring any extenuation circumstances, like espionage etc). But I have doubts that there is any magnitude of numbers. Damon. Damon Agretto [EMAIL PROTECTED] Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum. http://www.geocities.com/garrand.geo/index.html Now Building: Legends Aussie Centurion Mk.5/1 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
Damon wrote: Some may be. Enlisting in the US Military has NEVER been subject to the condition of citizenship. Any person can qualify to join the Army, no matter what country they come from, or what citizenship they hold (barring any extenuation circumstances, like espionage etc). But I have doubts that there is any magnitude of numbers. I'm wondering what your take is on the draft, Damon. I don't see how Iraq can be subdued without greater numbers and I think that it's likely that we'll begin to loose coalition members as the violence continues; what if the UK pulls out? I ask not just as a concerned citizen but as a father and uncle of several prime candidates. On a related note, I'm wondering how other list members would approach either being drafted or having their children/relations/friends drafted? Personally (and this is barring a more legitimate conflict), if my son was drafted I would do everything in my power, legal or not, to insure that he didn't go. I'm not saying Gautam is wrong, I trust that he knows what he's talking about in this instance, but I don't want to be caught off guard either. -- Doug ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
--- Doug Pensinger [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I'm not saying Gautam is wrong, I trust that he knows what he's talking about in this instance, but I don't want to be caught off guard either. -- Doug Thanks, Doug. Just a note - the Washington Post ran an article on the possibility just before the election. Quite a few Republicans (myself included, actually) thought it was a clear attempt to help the Kerry campaign (and thus somewhat out of character for the usually excellent Post, and particularly so for Tom Ricks, the best defense reporter in the business now that Rick Atkinson is writing books instead of reporting) by stirring up draft rumors before the election. Nonetheless, the article was overwhelming that the chance for a draft was very low to nonexistent. The URL is: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A440-2004Oct26.html I do note that they didn't ask talk to some of the people I would have expected them to talk to - Harvey Sapolsky and Cindy Williams at MIT, for example, or Charlie Moskos at Northwestern. My guess is that this is because the Post knew what they would say and it didn't fit with the storyline that they wanted. I don't know what Moskos would say, but I do know that Sapolsky and Cindy think that there is basically no chance of one happening. There's an old statistics joke that at 4-sigma we see the Second Coming. Well, I'd say that the draft would be a 5-sigma event. I think it would take a direct threat to the homeland of the US by a currently inconceivable threat (alien invasion!) in which case most people would, I think, be in favor of one anyways. = Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] Freedom is not free http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __ Do you Yahoo!? Check out the new Yahoo! Front Page. www.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
I'm wondering what your take is on the draft, Damon. I don't see how Iraq can be subdued without greater numbers and I think that it's likely that we'll begin to loose coalition members as the violence continues; what if the UK pulls out? Well, its as I had said before: we reap what we sow. Right now we are paying the price of the Clinton era military cuts. The perception was afte the end of the Cold War was that we no longer needed an 18 division active component Army (FREX, I have no idea what the numbers cut in the other services, as I'm overwhelmingly biased towards the Army). Thus we drew down to 10 Active component divisions (of which only 6 were heavy -- barely 3 corps of fighting power). Although some (like Brin) would argue that the situation we're in is entirely the fault of the Bush administration (i.e. we didn't need to invade Iraq), the point is that the current conflict is, in my opinion, showing holes in the Clinton administration's intention of an armed force that can handle 2 different crises at once. As it currently stands, we hare having trouble handling just ONE. What would happen if the North Koreans crossed the border? Or China decided to move against Taiwan? Althouth many claim the latter highly unlikely, it still stands as a possibility (hit Taiwan when the US is preoccupied, a sort of do it now and ask forgiveness later sort of action). I recall saying it at the BEGINNING of the offensive: we invaded with too few troops. They won the offensive but now are tied down loosing the peace. Personally, I would have invaded with 300K troops instead of the @120K, for a number of reasons I won't detail here. As for the draft, again, I think I'm a little biased. I'm not totally opposed to the idea of some sort of mandiatory service, for social reasons (i.e. take a spoiled suburbanite, send him to Kosovo, and maybe he'll appreciate what he has here in the US). But then, any sort of compulsive military service tends not to produce soldiers that WANT to be there and accomplish the mission. A problem we had in Vietnam (amongst other things). On a related note, I'm wondering how other list members would approach either being drafted or having their children/relations/friends drafted? Personally (and this is barring a more legitimate conflict), if my son was drafted I would do everything in my power, legal or not, to insure that he didn't go. Moral quandary. In some ways I'm glad I didn't stay in the Army since I have issues with the Iraq war (as I've said before, I think); I recently saw while browsing on Globalsecurity.org one of my old units is in-bound for Iraq. But then, I would still go without a question. Right now, this becomes a very pertinent question for me. One of my relatives is of draftable age, and is a junior in college. Currently, I think he's becoming a bit of a screw-up (problems with alcohol abuse, and he's going to one of the top 20 universities in the country, so if he screws up academically...he's screwed. I know; been there done that, as it were). So while there's that danger, another part of me doesn't think him going into the Army would be a bad thing. My experiences certainly gave me a new (better) perspective on life, and I think it would for him, too. Damon. Damon Agretto [EMAIL PROTECTED] Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum. http://www.geocities.com/garrand.geo/index.html Now Building: Legends Aussie Centurion Mk.5/1 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
On Sat, 6 Nov 2004, Gautam Mukunda wrote: Thanks, Doug. Just a note - the Washington Post ran an article on the possibility just before the election. Quite a few Republicans (myself included, actually) thought it was a clear attempt to help the Kerry campaign (and thus somewhat out of character for the usually excellent Post, and particularly so for Tom Ricks, the best defense reporter in the business now that Rick Atkinson is writing books instead of reporting) by stirring up draft rumors before the election. Nonetheless, the article was overwhelming that the chance for a draft was very low to nonexistent. The URL is: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A440-2004Oct26.html I do note that they didn't ask talk to some of the people I would have expected them to talk to - Harvey Sapolsky and Cindy Williams at MIT, for example, or Charlie Moskos at Northwestern. My guess is that this is because the Post knew what they would say and it didn't fit with the storyline that they wanted. Occasionally the Post will skew things and create stuff that just isn't there. And if they do it on the wrong story, someone a lot closer to the facts will harbor a deep mistrust of the paper for 10 years or so, and will only reluctantly be persuated that it's actually a good newspaper. At least, that's what happened to me. Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
--- Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Occasionally the Post will skew things and create stuff that just isn't there. And if they do it on the wrong story, someone a lot closer to the facts will harbor a deep mistrust of the paper for 10 years or so, and will only reluctantly be persuated that it's actually a good newspaper. At least, that's what happened to me. Julia Would you care to be more specific? I understand if you don't, of course, but I'm not sure if you're writing ambiguously here on purpose or not... = Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] Freedom is not free http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __ Do you Yahoo!? Check out the new Yahoo! Front Page. www.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
Damon wrote: I'm wondering what your take is on the draft, Damon. I don't see how Iraq can be subdued without greater numbers and I think that it's likely that we'll begin to loose coalition members as the violence continues; what if the UK pulls out? Well, its as I had said before: we reap what we sow. Right now we are paying the price of the Clinton era military cuts. The perception was afte the end of the Cold War was that we no longer needed an 18 division active component Army (FREX, I have no idea what the numbers cut in the other services, as I'm overwhelmingly biased towards the Army). Thus we drew down to 10 Active component divisions (of which only 6 were heavy -- barely 3 corps of fighting power). Although some (like Brin) would argue that the situation we're in is entirely the fault of the Bush administration (i.e. we didn't need to invade Iraq), the point is that the current conflict is, in my opinion, showing holes in the Clinton administration's intention of an armed force that can handle 2 different crises at once. As it currently stands, we hare having trouble handling just ONE. What would happen if the North Koreans crossed the border? Or China decided to move against Taiwan? Althouth many claim the latter highly unlikely, it still stands as a possibility (hit Taiwan when the US is preoccupied, a sort of do it now and ask forgiveness later sort of action). OK, but if what you're saying is that an 18 division all volunteer army is possible; we could recruit enough people to fill the ranks, then why didn't we start doing it after 9/11? I recall saying it at the BEGINNING of the offensive: we invaded with too few troops. They won the offensive but now are tied down loosing the peace. Personally, I would have invaded with 300K troops instead of the @120K, for a number of reasons I won't detail here. As for the draft, again, I think I'm a little biased. I'm not totally opposed to the idea of some sort of mandatory service, for social reasons (i.e. take a spoiled suburbanite, send him to Kosovo, and maybe he'll appreciate what he has here in the US). But then, any sort of compulsive military service tends not to produce soldiers that WANT to be there and accomplish the mission. A problem we had in Vietnam (amongst other things). I agree with both points _providing_ that it isn't possible for a George W. Bush to get favorable treatment because his Daddy's rich and well connected; everyone rich or poor stands the same chance of being on the front lines. On a related note, I'm wondering how other list members would approach either being drafted or having their children/relations/friends drafted? Personally (and this is barring a more legitimate conflict), if my son was drafted I would do everything in my power, legal or not, to insure that he didn't go. Moral quandary. In some ways I'm glad I didn't stay in the Army since I have issues with the Iraq war (as I've said before, I think); I recently saw while browsing on Globalsecurity.org one of my old units is in-bound for Iraq. But then, I would still go without a question. If I had volunteered to be in the army, so would I. Right now, this becomes a very pertinent question for me. One of my relatives is of draftable age, and is a junior in college. Currently, I think he's becoming a bit of a screw-up (problems with alcohol abuse, and he's going to one of the top 20 universities in the country, so if he screws up academically...he's screwed. I know; been there done that, as it were). So while there's that danger, another part of me doesn't think him going into the Army would be a bad thing. My experiences certainly gave me a new (better) perspective on life, and I think it would for him, too. It certainly helped me, but a lot of the kids I know have already started successful lives without the military. To disrupt their lives for a very questionable cause is not reasonable. What if we _do_ get involved in a second, legitimate conflict and the draft becomes necessary because most of our troops are committed in Iraq? -- Doug ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
OK, but if what you're saying is that an 18 division all volunteer army is possible; we could recruit enough people to fill the ranks, then why didn't we start doing it after 9/11? I'm not saying that an all volunteer 18 division army is possible, it has been done! Prior to GW1 and after Vietnam/end of draft, that's essentially what we had. As for why we didn't, I'm not sure. I blame Rumsfeld and Bush for (IMHO) gross underestimation of what an Iraq war will require. I'm pretty sure (speculation) Rummy wanted to get off cheap and do more with less. I agree with both points _providing_ that it isn't possible for a George W. Bush to get favorable treatment because his Daddy's rich and well connected; everyone rich or poor stands the same chance of being on the front lines. Absolutely. That was my point about the spoiled suburbanite teen. I also think it would be good for some nascent inner-city gangbanger too. Damon. Damon Agretto [EMAIL PROTECTED] Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum. http://www.geocities.com/garrand.geo/index.html Now Building: Legends Aussie Centurion Mk.5/1 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Draft [was: Bush II]
On Sat, 6 Nov 2004, Gautam Mukunda wrote: --- Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Occasionally the Post will skew things and create stuff that just isn't there. And if they do it on the wrong story, someone a lot closer to the facts will harbor a deep mistrust of the paper for 10 years or so, and will only reluctantly be persuated that it's actually a good newspaper. At least, that's what happened to me. Julia Would you care to be more specific? I understand if you don't, of course, but I'm not sure if you're writing ambiguously here on purpose or not... I didn't want to go into detail unless asked, but since you asked, I'll go into detail. In December 1988, a few young men in college, including my sister's ex-boyfriend, were trying to make fireworks in someone's garage. Specifically, the garage of a Brazilian attache, as his son was one of the young men in question. Something went wrong (the brother of my sister's ex who was in high school thought maybe some moisture got in at a stage where that can be Really Bad), and there was an explosion. IIRC, two of them died instantly, and the other two were dead within a few hours of their injuries. One of the Post reporters working on the story hinted that the explosion might have had something to do with someone plotting against Brazil or something like that. And the 11-year-old brother of my sister's ex was the only one in that family willing to talk to reporters, and the way some of that stuff was reported, it sounded as if the mother and the aunt had been the ones talking to that particular reporter. My sister brought back a couple of relevant issues from the Post, and my roommate (whose father was my sister's ex's chemistry professor at the University of Maryland) brought some more to me after Christmas break. It looked to me like really crappy reporting. And maybe you don't put your stellar reporters on a garage blowing up like that, but I don't expect the sort of sensationalism or near-subterfuge that I saw in those articles, knowing what I knew. So after that, I was not willing to trust the Post on much of anything, until you and some others convinced me that it was generally a good paper. Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: DRAFT
At 03:05 PM 11/3/03 -0600, Reggie Bautista wrote: d.brin wrote: But yes, a priority has to go to novels! So, guess where I'll be returning next? Hint... they swim. They talk. They fly Jim replied: Glee! It's a story about a bunch of Gameras! :) LOL! By the way, has anyone else noticed that there are suddenly a whole lot of Godzilla and related movies in the cheap DVD bins at Walmart? Hadn't noticed those. The night before the California election, though, I spotted a copy of Hercules in New York (supposedly with the original dialogue soundtrack) there . . . Didn't Get It Because I Didn't Have A Player Available Maru -- Ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: DRAFT
d.brin wrote: But yes, a priority has to go to novels! So, guess where I'll be returning next? Hint... they swim. They talk. They fly Jim replied: Glee! It's a story about a bunch of Gameras! :) LOL! By the way, has anyone else noticed that there are suddenly a whole lot of Godzilla and related movies in the cheap DVD bins at Walmart? Reggie Bautista Thread Creep Maru _ Enjoy MSN 8 patented spam control and more with MSN 8 Dial-up Internet Service. Try it FREE for one month! http://join.msn.com/?page=dept/dialup ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: DRAFT
- Original Message - From: Reggie Bautista [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, November 03, 2003 3:05 PM Subject: RE: DRAFT d.brin wrote: But yes, a priority has to go to novels! So, guess where I'll be returning next? Hint... they swim. They talk. They fly Jim replied: Glee! It's a story about a bunch of Gameras! :) LOL! By the way, has anyone else noticed that there are suddenly a whole lot of Godzilla and related movies in the cheap DVD bins at Walmart? Reggie Bautista Thread Creep Maru I've only seen Godzilla King Of The Monsters, Rodan, and Godzilla's Revenge. But I would be interested in the newer Godzilla flicks if and when they show up in the bin. xponent Kaiju Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: DRAFT Brin: update
Hi folks. I am sending out this draft of my annual (or semi) Author Update. Let me know if anything looks seriously awkward or seems to be missing, before I send it off to several thousand people who asked to be put on my notification list. Maybe you could add that GURPS Uplift includes some texts of this next novel [it even gives the name Jijo Ascendant for it :-)] A note to GAMERS! Steve Jackson Games and Stefan Jones have re-issued (by popular demand) the legendary role playing system GURPS Uplift, much expanded over the version that was going for $100+ on eBay! Its unique system for creating new alien species has been tested by tee best game-players and at scientific conferences! For details see: www.io.com/~stefanj or www.io.com/~stefanj/uplift_gateway_home.html These are not the official sjgames page, which is... http://www.sjgames.com/gurps/books/Uplift/ But yes, a priority has to go to novels! So, guess where I'll be returning next? Hint... they swim. They talk. They fly :-))) Too obvious :-) Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Brin: Re: DRAFT Brin update
Other authors may have hifalutin fan clubs. I just keep a long list of people who seem lively and interested in the Future. I'll only get in touch once or twice a year. The more generally accepted spelling is highfalutin, but I'll chalk that up to creative license. :-) IMHO, it also might not be a bad idea to mention that Tomorrow Happens is out. (especially since the forward was written by Vernor Vinge and it included that great Verne-esque short story you collaborated on with Gregory Benford) One small item I'm dying to find out about: Kil'n Time (and Pallie). I suppose that'll have to wait for a later update, huh? *sigh* Otherwise, it sounds great! Jon Le Blog: http://zarq.livejournal.com _ Never get a busy signal because you are always connected with high-speed Internet access. Click here to comparison-shop providers. https://broadband.msn.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Brin: Re: DRAFT Brin update
Davd Brin wrote: Thanks... and thank Alberto for me. Other people also wrote comments, but they forgot to put the Brin: in the subject line O:-) Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Brin: Re: DRAFT Brin update
--- Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Davd Brin wrote: Thanks... and thank Alberto for me. Other people also wrote comments, but they forgot to put the Brin: in the subject line O:-) Were any of them useful? The mistake was mine, I suppose, in the first place. d ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Brin: Re: DRAFT Brin update
Just typos: On 1 Nov 2003, at 10:44 pm, d.brin wrote: species has been tested by tee best game-players and at scientific conferences! For 'tee' should be 'the' ? -- William T Goodall and d.brin wrote: If your large organization needs a speaker, drop by www.davidbrin.com/speaker. Needs to be www.davidbrin.com/speaker.html __ Steve Sloan -- Doug ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Brin: Re: DRAFT Brin update
In a message dated 11/2/2003 2:11:02 PM US Mountain Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: Other people also wrote comments, but they forgot to put the Brin: in the subject line O:-) Were any of them useful? The mistake was mine, I suppose, in the first place. d And I did: Subj:Re: ON TAP or BOTTLE Br!n update Date: 11/1/2003 5:29:31 PM US Mountain Standard Time From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Reply-to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Killer Bs Discussion) To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] In a message dated 11/1/2003 5:20:40 PM US Mountain Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: d.brin wrote: If your large organization needs a speaker, drop by www.davidbrin.com/speaker. Needs to be www.davidbrin.com/speaker.html Without html you can't Hit The Mother Lode. So I can answer, yes I answered, yes I knew I had left Brin out of the subject line, and yes I knew that the message was not useful. Perhaps not even funny. Making it funnier to make this message in all seriousness. William Taylor - May That which does not kill me enrich you more than the lawyer standing next to you. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: DRAFT Brin update
In a message dated 11/1/2003 4:47:01 PM US Mountain Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: Hint... they swim. They talk. They fly Hang gliding dolphins? William Taylor - Kiwi Halogen Productions Ltd. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: DRAFT Brin update
d.brin wrote: If your large organization needs a speaker, drop by www.davidbrin.com/speaker. Needs to be www.davidbrin.com/speaker.html __ Steve Sloan . Huntsville, Alabama = [EMAIL PROTECTED] Brin-L list pages .. http://www.brin-l.org Chmeee's 3D Objects http://www.sloan3d.com/chmeee 3D and Drawing Galleries .. http://www.sloansteady.com Software Science Fiction, Science, and Computer Links Science fiction scans . http://www.sloan3d.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: DRAFT
d.brin wrote: But yes, a priority has to go to novels! So, guess where I'll be returning next? Hint... they swim. They talk. They fly Glee! It's a story about a bunch of Gameras! :) Jim ___ Join Excite! - http://www.excite.com The most personalized portal on the Web! ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
