[ECOLOG-L] A NEW COURSE: Alternative Hypotheses and AIC Model Selection
A NEW COURSE -- ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MODEL SELECTION Research workers in many of the life sciences are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary alpha levels, P-values, and the dichotomous rulings concerning "statistical significance." These traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such as the probability of each hypothesis/model and measures of formal evidence. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g., prediction/forecasting) from all the hypotheses/models in the a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 1-day courses on the Information- Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during 2016. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson. D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses are hosted, organized and delivered at your university, agency, institute or training center. I have given nearly 70 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at www.aic-overview.com/aic-overview.pdf If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietanderson at yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION COURSES -- Fall 2015
A NEW COURSE -- ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MO DEL SELECTION Research workers in many of the life sciences are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary alpha levels, P-values, and the dichotomous rulings concerning "statistical significance." These traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such as the probability of each hypothesis/model and measures of formal evidence. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g., prediction/forecasting) from all the hypotheses/models in the a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 1-day courses on the Information- Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during the fall months, 2015. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson. D. R.2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses are hosted, organized and delivered at your university, agency, institute or training center. I have given nearly 70 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at www.aic-overview.com/aic-overview.pdf If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietanderson - at - yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AN OCTOBER COURSE ON MODERN STATISTICAL INFERENCE IN COLORADO'S HIGH CONTRY
AN OCTOBER COURSE ON MODERN STATISTICAL INFERENCE IN COLORADO’S HIGH COUNTRY I am hosting a 1-day course on the Information-Theoretic (I-T) approaches to statistical inference on Tuesday October 20, 2015. The course covers AIC model selection as a practical means of providing evidence for/against science hypotheses. These methods have a very deep foundation in Kullback-Liebler information theory but are computationally quite easy in application, and relatively simple to understand. The course material follows my 2008 Springer book, “Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence.” The book can be found on the Internet without cost or can be ordered from the usual places (e.g., Springer or Amazon). The course stresses science and science philosophy as much as statistics. The initial focus is on quantification and qualification of formal statistical evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. By afternoon the focus turns to making statistical inference from all the models in an a priori set (multimodel inference). Details on the course are available by contacting me. The course will be held at the Rocky Mountain Resorts (RMR) in Estes Park, Colorado. This resort sits on the shore of Lake Estes at about 9,000 ft elevation about 1.6 miles from downtown Estes Park. Mid-October is likely to be perfect fall weather but could be cold and snowy or about anything. Those renting a car might consider an AWD vehicle in case of snow. Come prepared for about anything. Monday and Wednesday are travel days; however, many people will want to come early and enjoy nearby (7 miles) Rocky Mountain National Park and see 14,257 ft Long’s Peak. You will see hundreds of elk, many on the resort grounds; bring a camera. Mule deer, bighorn sheep and other animals can also be seen depending on the weather and if one spends some time in the Park. I suggest attendees stay in the RMR making it easy to find parking and be just down the hall from the conference room where the course will be offered. However, there is a large number of alternatives in the Estes Park area. Just arrive by sometime Monday as the course will start promptly at 8:30 am on Tuesday the 20th. Registration fee is $190 and includes the presentation of the technical material and morning and afternoon breaks. Sleeping rooms and lunch are on your own. Maximum attendance is set at about 35; registration is likely to fill up quickly. One glitch – I will be in China September 25-October 11 so plan contact with me before (better) or after those dates. Those not familiar with “Colorado’s Alps” could google “Estes Park,” “Rocky Mountain National Park,” and “Rocky Mountain Resorts.” Again, many details on the course itself are available from me for the asking. David R. Anderson quietanderson –at- yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
ALTERNATIVE SCIENCE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MODEL SELECTION Research workers in many fields are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary α-levels, P-values, and dichotomous rulings concerning “statistical significance.” These traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. These methods rely on the concept of information loss and formal evidence. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such at the probability of each hypothesis/model and evidence ratios. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g. prediction/forecasting) from all the models in an a priori set (“multimodel inference”). I am planning to offer several 1-day courses on the Information- Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during the fall of 2015. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given >60 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at www.aic-overview.com/aic-overview.pdf if are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietanderson – at - yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] A NEW COURSE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MODEL SELECTION
Research workers in many of the life sciences are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary alpha levels, P-values and the dichotomous rulings concerning "statistical significance." The traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such as the probability of each hypotheses/model and measures of formal evidence. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inferences (e.g., prediction/forecasting) from all the hypotheses/models in the a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 1-day courses on the information- theoretic approaches to statistical inference during the Spring and Summer months, 2015. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences:a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses and hosted, organized and delivered at your university, agency, institute or training center. I have given nearly 70 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at www.aic-overview.com/aic-overview.pdf If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MODEL SELECTION Research workers in many fields are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary α-levels, P-values, and dichotomous rulings concerning statistical significance. These traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. These methods rely on the concept of information loss and formal evidence. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such at the probability of each hypothesis/model and evidence ratios. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g. prediction/forecasting) from all the models in an a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during March-June, 2014. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaikes information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. A copy of this book, a reference sheet, and several handouts are included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given >65 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate is encouraged. Further insights can be found at www.informationtheoryworkshop.com if are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MODEL SELECTION
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES AND AIC MODEL SELECTION Research workers in many fields are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary α-levels, P-values, and dichotomous rulings concerning statistical significance. These traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. These methods rely on the concept of information loss and formal evidence. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such at the probability of each hypothesis/model and evidence ratios. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g. prediction/forecasting) from all the models in an a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during February-June, 2014. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaikes information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. A copy of this book, a reference sheet, and several handouts are included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given >60 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at informationtheoryworkshop.com If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] A 21st CENTURY STATISTICS COURSE -- AIC Model Selection
Science has moved away from historical statistics (e.g., P-values, t-tests, ANOVA)and toward several extensions to Fisher's likelihood theory. These new approaches as based on Kullback-Leibler information leading to Akaike's information criteria (AIC). Evidential quantities such as the likelihood of maodel i, the probability of model i, and evidence ratios are relatively simple to understand and compute. The theory extends to allow formal inferences to be made from all the models, not just the one estimated to be best. The material is taken from a recent book -- Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. This book is included in the registration fee. I am offering 2-day or 3-day courses on this subject in the coming months delivered at your location. Additional details are found at www.informationtheoryworkshop.com Please contact me if you are interested. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
Information-Theoretic Approaches to Empirical Science
Courses can be scheduled late summer or fall.
Instructor: David R. Anderson
These courses present a new science paradigm based on Information Theory.
Kullback-Leibler information is the basis for model selection leading to
Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC). The course deals with science
philosophy, as much as data analysis and model selection. The focus is on
quantitative evidence for multiple science hypotheses. This general
approach includes ranking the science hypotheses; examination of the
probability of hypothesis j, given the data; and evidence ratios. Once
these concepts have been presented, the discussion shifts to making formal
inference from all the hypotheses and their models (multimodel inference).
Additional details can be viewed at
www.informationtheoryworkshop.com
Key Outcomes: Attendees will have a good understanding of these new
approaches and be able to perform analyses with their own data. The
computations required are quite simple once the parameter estimates have
been obtained for each model.
Target Audience: Graduate students, post-docs, faculty, and research people
in various agencies and institutes. People involved in research and science
where their work involves hypothesizing and modelling and their inferences
are model based will gain from this material.
Background Required: Attendees should have a decent background in
statistical principles and modelling (this is NOT a modelling course). The
course focuses on science, science philosophy, information and evidence.
The amount of mathematics or statistics presented in the course is
relatively meager; however, without a good understanding of linear and
nonlinear regression, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, one
will struggle to understand some of the material to be presented.
Why Take This Course? A substantial paradigm shift is occurring in our
science and resource management. The past century relied on null hypothesis
testing, asymptotic distributions of the test statistic, P-values and a
ruling concerning significant or not significant. Under this analysis
paradigm a test statistic (T) is computed from the data. The P-value is the
focus of the analysis and is the Prob{T or more extreme, given the null
hypothesis]. With this definition in mind, we can abbreviate slightly.
Prob(X|Ho), where it is understood that X represents the data or more
extreme (unobserved) data.
The null hypothesis (Ho) takes center stage but is often trivial or even
silly. The alternative hypothesis (HA) is not the subject of the test;
support for the alternative occurs only if the P-value (for the null
hypothesis) is low, (often <0.05). Support for the alternative hypothesis
comes by default and only when the Prob{data|Ho} is low.
The proper interpretation of the P-value is quite strained: this might
explain why so many people erroneously pretend it means something quite
different (i.e., the probability that the null hypothesis is true). This is
not what is meant by a P-value.
These traditional methods are being replaced by information-theoretic
methods (and to a lesser extent, at least at this time, by a variety of
Bayesian methods). These approaches focus on an a priori set of plausible
science hypotheses
H1, H2,
, HR .
Evidence for or against members of this set of multiple working hypotheses
consists of a (1) the likelihood of each hypothesis, given the data, L(Hj|X)
or (2) a set of probabilities, Prob{H1, H2,
,HR, given the data} or
Prob(Hj|X}. These likelihoods and probabilities are direct evidence, where
evidence = information = -entropy.
Simple evidence ratios allow a measure of the formal strength of evidence
for any two science hypotheses. Note the radical difference in the
probability statements (above) stemming from either a P-value or the
probability of hypothesis j. Statistical inference should be about models
and parameters, conditional on the data, however, P-values are probability
statements about the data, conditional on the null hypothesis.
These new approaches (including Bayesian methods) allow statistical
inference to be based on all (or some) of the models in the a priori set,
leading to a robust class of methods termed multimodel inference. That
is, the inference is based on all the models in the set. Alternative
science hypotheses take center stage in these approaches and will require
much more attention than in the past century (where one started with an
alternative and the null was merely nothing or the naïve position: thus,
little science thinking was called for).
The set of science hypotheses evolves through time as implausible
hypotheses are eventually dropped from consideration, new hypotheses are
added, and existing hypotheses are further refined. Rapid progress in the
theoretical or appl
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
WORKSHOPS ON FORMAL EVIDENCE FOR ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES Research workers in many fields are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary α-levels, P-values, and dichotomous rulings concerning statistical significance. These historical approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. These methods rely on the concept of information loss and formal, quantitative evidence. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such at the probability of each hypothesis/model and evidence ratios. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g. prediction/forecasting) from all the models in an a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during the spring and summer of 2013. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaikes information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. A copy of this book, a reference sheet, and several handouts are included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given >60 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on hosting such a course are given at http://aicandersion1.home.comcast.net-- then click on Hosting a Short Course on the left. If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC Model Selection and Multimodel Inference Courses
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given over 50 such courses and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on the course costs and related material can be found at http://aicanderson1.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given approximately 60 such courses around the world and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on the course costs and related material can be found at http://aicanderson3.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION COURSES -- SUMMER 2012
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming summer months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given over 50 such courses and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on the course costs and related material can be found at http://aicanderson1.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] A WORKSHOP ON FORMAL EVIDENCE FOR ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES
WORKSHOPS ON FORMAL EVIDENCE FOR ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES Research workers in many fields are realizing the substantial limitations of statistical tests, test statistics, arbitrary α-levels, P-values, and dichotomous rulings concerning statistical significance. These traditional approaches were developed at the beginning of the last century and are being replaced by modern methods that are much more useful. These methods rely on the concept of information loss and formal evidence. They provide easy-to-compute quantities such at the probability of each hypothesis/model and evidence ratios. Furthermore, simple methods allow formal inference (e.g. prediction/forecasting) from all the models in an a priori set (multimodel inference). I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference during January, March, and April, 2012. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaikes information criterion (AIC). The material follows the recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. A copy of this book, a reference sheet, and several handouts are included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 55-660 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. Further insights can be found at http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on hosting such a course are given at http://aicandersion1.home.comcast.net click on Hosting a Short Course on the left. If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION COURSES -- FALL 2011
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given over 50 such courses and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on the course costs and related material can be found at http://aicanderson1.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION COURSES -- SUMMER/FALL 2011
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given over 50 such courses and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION COURSES -- SUMMER 2011
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming summer months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaikes information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 184pp. A copy of this book, a reference sheet, and several handouts are included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as statistical methods. The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 of these courses and they have been well received. The courses are informal and discussion and debate are encouraged. The courses are informative and it is easy to understand the material. Additional insights can be found at http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Details on hosting such a course are given at http://aicanderson1.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC and Occam;s Razor
Bob: Here are a few thoughts on your comments: > This might shock some people, but AIC does not give The Truth. Of course not; one cannot hope to find full truth from finite samples. > If you > have a model that fits almost as well, but is simpler, then I don't > see a problem with using it. You could use the more simple model if you wished, but it is far better to model average (not to mention that you could properly treat model selection uncertainty as part of the measure of precision). >It's worth checking how much less of the > variation is explain (e.g. using R^2), and also how different the > fitted models are. Adj R-sq might be worth mention; however, it is a very poor way to select models. Adj R-sq applies just to the fitted data set and is not able to reflect out-of-sample prediction. Akaike's predictive likelihood goes beyond this. > AIC has a tendency to give overly complex models (especially with > lots of data), What you say is correct; however, that is exactly why people should be using AICc -- afterall that was first published some 33 years ago (1978)! >so I often use BIC instead, which tends too far in the > other direction. BIC is very poor; disliked by likelihoodists and Bayesians alike. Its underlying assumptions are absurd. It is not related to information theory in the slightest. Almost a hoax. This is a poor approach. >Or, if the full model isn't too big, I don't bother > with model selection, and report the full model. Again, a very poor approach to valid inference unless the sample size is very large. I hope these comments will be useful. David Anderson
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based evidence in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC MODEL SELECTION COURSES -- SPRING/SUMMER 2010
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches to statistical inference over the coming spring/summer months. These courses focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent textbook, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. These courses stress science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been well received. The courses are informative and the material is fun to understand. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE COURSES
I am planning to offer several 2- or 3-day courses on the Information- Theoretic approaches in the life sciences over the next several months. These short courses are presented to focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC). The material follows my textbook, Anderson, D. R. (2008). Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. The course stresses science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on the quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been very well received. The courses are both informative and fun. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] A IC -- Model Selection and Multimodel Inference Course
I am planning to offer several 2- or 3-day courses on the Information- Theoretic approaches in the life sciences over the next several months. These short courses are presented to focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC). The material follows my textbook, Anderson, D. R. (2008). Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY 184pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. The course stresses science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on the quantification and qualification of formal evidence concerning alternative science hypotheses. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been very well received. The courses are both informative and fun. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. Thank you. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] A WARNING FOR PROFESSIONALS GOING TO THE UNITED KINGDOM
I flew to London-Heathrow a week ago on my way to Glasgow, Scotland where I was to give a 2-dayworkshop, a day of consultation and a seminar. The University of Glasgow was to pay for my expenses and services and 41 grad students, post docs, and faculty were registered for the workshop. I was detained at Heathrow by the UK Border Agency for nearly 5 hours. During this time I was searched, questioned, fingerprinted, photograhped and moved from one secure room to the next -- like a criminal. My carry-on suitcase and leather bag with my workshop materials were emptied and searched, along with my wallet. I asked on 7 different occasions to be able to call the US Embassy -- these requests were denied! At the end of this long process the agent announced that I was to be deported the next day! They claimed that I did not have a special visa or a "certificate of sponsorship." Indeed, I had neither; I had never heard of such requirements for a US citizen. I have spent 42 years working in academic/science and have travelled to many foreign countries. I have never experienced such detention and deportation. UK universities, travel agents, immigration attorneys, my US Senator's office and others are now trying to unravel exactly what papers are actually required. This search has proven to be difficult for a number of reasons. This matter is important as all the UK universities have academic visitors arriving daily for conferences, symposia, workshops, and seminars, etc., etc. with countless agreements concerning reimbursments and honoraria. It seems that special documents are now required or one faces deportation and all the related expenses. I will post agian if I learn more; in the meantime, professionals going to the UK should make every effort to obtain the "required" documents.
[ECOLOG-L] AIC -- Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
I am planning to offer several 2-day courses on the Information-Theoretic approaches in the life sciences during November and early December. These courses are presented to focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The material follows my recent book, Anderson, D. R. (2008). Model based inference in the life Sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 180pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. The new text stresses science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on the quantification and qualification of formal evidence. These short courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been very well received. The courses are both informative and fun. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC-MODEL SELECTION COURSES
I am planning to offer several 2- or 3-day courses on the information- theoretic approaches in the life sciences over the next 4 months. The course material focuses on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Leibler information and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The material follows my new textbook. Anderson, D. R. (2008). Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 180pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. The course stresses science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus in on the quantification and qualification of formal evidence. Formal methods to allow inference to be based on multiple models (multimodel inference) are also covered. These courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been very well received. The courses are both informative and fun. More information about the courses is available at http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me David R. Anderson quietander...@yahoo.com
[ECOLOG-L] AIC - Model Selection courses
I am planning to offer several 2- or 3-day courses on the Information- Theoretic approaches in the life sciences over the next several months. These courses are presented to focus on the practical application of these new methods and are based on Kullback-Liebler information and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The material follows my new book, Anderson, D. R. (2008). Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. Springer, New York, NY. 180pp. A copy of this book is included in the registration fee. The new text stresses science and science philosophy as much as "statistical methods." The focus is on the quantification and qualification of formal evidence. These short courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, institute, or training center. I have given 45-50 such courses and they have been very well received. The courses are both informative and fun. For more insights into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net If you are interested in hosting a course at your location, please contact me. David R. Anderson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
A NEW BOOK ON EVIDENCE IN SCIENCE
I have just finished writing a textbook that is of potential interest to people doing research in the life sciences, Anderson, D. R. 2008. Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences: A Primer on Evidence. Springer, New York, NY. This book was written for people new to the information-theoretic approaches. The book is short (184pp), paperback, and inexpensive ($39). The book is as much about science philosphy and the concept of information as it is about statistics and inference. The last chapters discuss ways of making formal inference from more than one model in an a priori set (multimodel inference). Exercises follow most chapters as does a "Remarks" section. David R. Anderson Fort Collins,clorado USA
A LATE SUMMER/FALL SHORTCOURSE ANNOUNCEMENT
LATE SUMMER/FALL SHORT COURSES Model Selection and Multimodel Inference Based on Kullback-Leibler Information Scientific Evidence. I am planning to offer several 2- or 3-day short courses in the coming months. The material is based on the book, Burnham K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. 2nd Ed., Springer-Verlag, New York, NY. 488pp. These short courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, or training center. Each course is tailored to the specific audience. I have given approximately 35 such courses and they have been very well received. For insight into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Please contact me ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) if you are potentially interested in organizing a short course at your location. Thank you. David Anderson
SHORT COURSES ON MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE
SPRING/SUMMER SHORT COURSES Science Strategies Based on Kullback-Leibler Information I am planning to offer 2-4 short courses in the coming months. The material is based on the book, Burnham K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. 2nd Ed., Springer-Verlag, New York, NY. 488pp. These short courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, or training center. Each course is tailored to the specific audience. I have given approximately 30 such courses and they have been very well received. For insight into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Please contact David Anderson ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) if you are potentially interested in organizing a short course at your location. Thank you. David Anderson
SHORT COURSES ON MODEL SELECTION AND MULTIMODEL INFERENCE
WINTER SHORT COURSES Science Strategies Based on Kullback-Leibler Information I am planning to offer 2-4 short courses in the coming months. The material is based on the book, Burnham K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. 2nd Ed., Springer-Verlag, New York, NY. 488pp. These short courses can be hosted, organized, and delivered at your university, agency, or training center. Each course is tailored to the specific audience. I have given approximately 30 such courses and they have been very well received. For insight into what these courses are about, see http://aicanderson2.home.comcast.net Please contact David Anderson ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) if you are potentially interested in organizing a short course at your location. Thank you. David Anderson
MODEL SELECTION USING AIC
Questions were raised about the proper use of AIC in model selection and inference. A recent monograph in Sociological Methods and Resarch addresses the issues raised. A PDF file of the SMR monograph can be found at http://www2.fmg.uva.nl/modelselection/presentations/AWMS2004-Burnham- paper.pdf Dr. Ellner noted the Bayesian paper by Drs. Link and Barker in the most recent issue of Ecology. A response to this paper was submitted on October 25. This paper (actually a "Comment") was submitted by Ken Burnham and myself. David R. Anderson November 7, 2006
