Re: Regression to the mean,Barry Bonds & HRs

[Stan Brown]

Rich Ulrich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in sci.stat.edu:
>This was a topic a month ago.  Just to bring things up to date
>
>Barry Bonds hit 38 homers in the first half of the season (81 games),
>a record pace.  Should we expect his performance to "regress to the 
>mean"  sufficiently that he would not break the season record of 70?
>
>BB had never hit 50 in one season, and no player as old
>as BB (at 37 years)  had ever hit 50.  In the 3rd quarter of the
>season, BB raised his total to 53 (I think):  15  in 41 games
>was still an  exceptional pace, though not 19 or 20.
>
>Should the final quarter regress toward his 3rd quarter run,
>his full-year average, or his average over recent seasons?

Would the relevant mean not be the mean of final quarter of season 
over the years of his career? Otherwise you're neglecting seasonal 
factors, which could have great impact on his performance.

-- 
Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
  http://oakroadsystems.com
My reply address is correct as is. The courtesy of providing a correct
reply address is more important to me than time spent deleting spam.


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Re: violation of statistical assumptions

[David Lane]

The Rice Virtual Lab in Statistics has an applet that lets you examine the
effects of skewness and heterogeneity of variance in ANOVA. The web page is:


--David Lane

> From: nick carriero <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Newsgroups: sci.stat.edu
> Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2001 19:29:48 -0400
> Subject: violation of statistical assumptions
> 
> has anyone developed any demonstrations (sampling experiments) to show
> what happens when the assumptions required for t-tests, anovas, pearson
> correlations are not met or is there a web site with such demonstrations
> 
> thanx
> 
> nick carriero



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Can you earn money on-line?

[Efim]

Can you tell me eather it is possible to earn money on-line using
sites like http://www.fastmoneyforfree.com/join.asp?sid=10275
or it is just a trick?

[EMAIL PROTECTED]


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violation of statistical assumptions

[nick carriero]

has anyone developed any demonstrations (sampling experiments) to show
what happens when the assumptions required for t-tests, anovas, pearson
correlations are not met or is there a web site with such demonstrations

thanx

nick carriero


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Re: Regression to the mean,Barry Bonds & HRs

[Rich Ulrich]

This was a topic a month ago.  Just to bring things up to date

Barry Bonds hit 38 homers in the first half of the season (81 games),
a record pace.  Should we expect his performance to "regress to the 
mean"  sufficiently that he would not break the season record of 70?

BB had never hit 50 in one season, and no player as old
as BB (at 37 years)  had ever hit 50.  In the 3rd quarter of the
season, BB raised his total to 53 (I think):  15  in 41 games
was still an  exceptional pace, though not 19 or 20.

Should the final quarter regress toward his 3rd quarter run,
his full-year average, or his average over recent seasons?

By yesterday, Sammy Sosa had tied a record for one-month
homer-output, and pulled up to a total of 51.  He is only the
second player (after McGwire) to hit 50 in four consecutive
seasons.  He has 9 multi-homer games so far this season.

If the final part of the season "regresses to"  the last 6 weeks,
or else regresses to the preceding season or three,
then Sosa passes Bonds for the HR title; at less than 70.


-- 
Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[Jay Warner]

"Robert J. MacG. Dawson" wrote:
> The focused test eliminates questions that would
enable students to score A's,
> B's, and C's.  All they get is another chance to score a D rather
than an F.
> Implicit in the very concept of the focused test is the idea that
a student who
> fails the standard MCAS test cannot be more than a D student. Such
students
> will be accommodated with a special test on which they cannot score
better than
> a D: MCAS for Dummies. The cynicism of the proposal is almost beyond
belief ...
> The board is telling every 10th-grader in Massachusetts: "It's not
important to
> pass the MCAS on the first try. Not only will we give you four more
chances, we
> will offer you an easier test if you fail the first time. That's
your prize for
> losing." The booby prize turns out to be first prize.
 
 
    The focussed test isn't an
entirely bad idea; it does allow a genuine D
student to avoid getting blown out of the water by questions intended
to
discriminate between A and B students. However, it seems like a very
poor way to carry the idea out.
Not only a poor way, but a logically inconsistent one.  The purpose
of the test is to establish a standard level of accomplishment for HS grads
in MA.  As I posted at an early hour this past am, such a test has
no interest in discriminating between t he A and B students.  To try
to merge the two objectives runs the serious risk, if not guarantee, of
missing both.
The fact that the retest permits a reduced set of questions suggests
that the MCAS administrators agree.
[snip]
Jay--
Jay Warner
Principal Scientist
Warner Consulting, Inc.
 North Green Bay Road
Racine, WI 53404-1216
USA
Ph: (262) 634-9100
FAX: (262) 681-1133
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
web: http://www.a2q.com
The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today?
 





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Re: OT: SCAM WARNING Re: urgent response needed

[Bill Jefferys]

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
(Robert J. MacG. Dawson) wrote:

#"Gordon D. Pusch" wrote:
#> 
#> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Chike Ubah) writes:
#> 
#> > ATTENTION:
#> >  Dear Sir,
#> > This letter might surprise you because; we have not
#> > met neither in person nor by correspondence. But I
#> > believe it is one day that you get know somebody
#> > either in physical or through correspondence.
#> [ Rest deleted ]
#> 
#> WARNING: This is a scam...
#
#   Of course it is.
#
#   OTOH, as almost every version of this that I've seen proposes
#partnership in highly illegal activities, it could be argued that there
#is no point protecting those who are dishonest enough to bite the hook.  
#
#   OTGH, anybody daft or ill-informed enough to think - by now - that this
#was for real might also be suspected of being unaware of the illegality
#of the proposed actions (or, indeed, of the color of the sky on the
#planet occupied by most of us); so perhaps solicitude for the gravely
#clue-challenged might justify a warning after all.

It could even be a sting.

Bill

-- 
Bill Jefferys/Department of Astronomy/University of Texas/Austin, TX 78712
Email: replace 'warthog' with 'clyde' | Homepage: quasar.as.utexas.edu
I report spammers to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Finger for PGP Key: F7 11 FB 82 C6 21 D8 95  2E BD F7 6E 99 89 E1 82
Unlawful to use this email address for unsolicited ads: USC Title 47 Sec 227


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[EugeneGall]

I just took another look at the front page Boston Globe article that described
the most difficult MCAS question.  The most difficult question on the 2001 math
test is a question involving probability and geometry, question 9 on the MCAS
test
http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/01release/
I've seen versions of this question in several probability texts.  It is a fair
question, but the MCAS phrasing is wrong.  It is based on a graphic, which I'll
describe:

9. Julie designed a target computer game. On her computer screen, the circular
targets look like the circular areas shown below.
[Shown are two circles, the inner shaded circle has a radius of 1 foot, the
difference between the  inner circle's and outer circle'ss radii is 2 feet,
hence the outer circle has a radius of 3 feet]

If the computer randomly generates a dot that lands within the circular areas,
what is the approximate probability that the dot will land in the shaded area?
A. 1/9
B. 2/9
C. 1/3
D. 2/3

The correct answer, which only 31% of the 63,000 10th graders in MA got correct
was listed as A) 1/9.   Take a look at the phrasing of the question again: If
the computer randomly generates a dot that lands within the circular AREAS
[PLURAL-my emphasis] , what is the probability?  Of course the answer is 1.0,
and the answer nearest to the correct answer is D.

If the MCAS had required that students know how to master Venn diagrams instead
of the NCTS and Harcourt-Brace version of the boxplot (Question 39), then the
expected proportion of students choosing A would be 0%

Obviously the correct phrasing should have been:
If the computer randomly generates a dot that lands within the OUTER circular
area, what is the approximate probability that the dot will land in the shaded
area?

So far, of the 6 statistics and probability questions of the 41 MCAS 2001 math
questions, we've flagged 3 (9, 39, and 40) that are either trivial or wrong or
both.  Unfortunately, 10s of thousands of MA students are going to be told they
failed this exam in 2.5 months and unless they pass another version of this
test, they cannot receive a high school diploma.


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[EugeneGall]

Robert Dawson wrote: 
>   An obvious approach that would seem to give the advantages hoped for
>from the focussed test without the disadvantages would be just to group
>questions in the original test in roughly increasing order of
>difficulty. One might (I'm not so sure that this would be a good idea) 
>put between each group a rubric along the lines of
>
>===
>   PROGRESS CHECKPOINT 1
>   If you have got the right answers to 15 of the preceding 20 questions
>you have already passed (50%).
>   If you have got the right answers to 18 of the preceding 20 questions
>you have already got at least a C- (60%).
>   The questions below are mostly more advanced. Right answers to any of
>them will raise your numerical mark further and may raise your letter
>grade.  
>   KEEP ON GOING!
>
>   Alternatively one could use icons - say Happy Faces - to identify a set
>of recommended easier questions that nobody should quit without
>attempting, if there was a reason to use the order to encode something
>else.
>
>   -Robert Dawson

If only the scoring were that rational.  It isn't.  MA scores the test on a 200
to 280 point scale, with 240 being proficient.  Since 3/4 of the questions are
multiple choice, the exam is scaled so that the 1st 10 correct answers will
place you at 200, the minimum.  So your first benchmark would have to be.
  You've just passed the first 1/4 of the exam.  If you answered all of these
questions correctly, your score is now 200 on the 200 to 280 point scale.  Each
additional correct answer will be weighted to count as x.x scaled points, with
the scaling coefficient to be determined only after this tests' core questions
are compared with the previous 3 years' core questions (a similar number of
correct core questions on the exam will earn the same scaled score for each
year's exam).



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Re: a problem.

[Vadim Pliner]

I assume you are interested in the expected value (E) of the number of
different balls. Then, E= SUM j*P{selected j different balls} over i=1
to M1. Now, P{selected j different balls}= sub(N)Csub(j)*(j/N)^N,
where sub(N)Csub(j) is the number of possible combinations of j items
selected from N items, which is N!/(j!(N-j)!).

Vadim Pliner

[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Donald Burrill) wrote in message 
news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
> On Sun, 26 Aug 2001 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> 
> > I have trouble to solve this probability problem.  Hope get help here. 
> > 
> > There is N balls, Pick up M1 balls with replacement from them.
> > what is the expected value of different balls we pick up?
> 
> "Expected value" of what characteristic of the balls?  
> 
>  
>  Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>  184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110  603-471-7128
> 
> 
> 
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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[Dennis Roberts]

At 01:57 PM 8/27/01 -0300, Robert J. MacG. Dawson wrote:

> The focussed test isn't an entirely bad idea; it does allow a 
> genuine D
>student to avoid getting blown out of the water by questions intended to
>discriminate between A and B students. However, it seems like a very
>poor way to carry the idea out.
>
>
> An obvious approach that would seem to give the advantages hoped for
>from the focussed test without the disadvantages would be just to group
>questions in the original test in roughly increasing order of
>difficulty. One might (I'm not so sure that this would be a good idea)
>put between each group a rubric along the lines of
>
>===
> PROGRESS CHECKPOINT 1
> If you have got the right answers to 15 of the preceding 20 questions
>you have already passed (50%).
> If you have got the right answers to 18 of the preceding 20 questions
>you have already got at least a C- (60%).
> The questions below are mostly more advanced. Right answers to any of
>them will raise your numerical mark further and may raise your letter
>grade.
> KEEP ON GOING!
>===

yeah but ... they could do that from day 1 ... in a CAT format ... the 
first time 10th graders take the test ... why wait till retake 3 or retake 4?

why waste 10th graders time the first go round ... 

all of this begs the question though ... that the item ... maybe more than 
one ... are terribly bad items to be putting on high stakes tests like 
these ... even if they have 100 retakes

someone in mass. ... or the company that mass. contracts for to do the 
tests ... is NOT doing their homework ... PRIOR to having these tests 
finalized ... printed ... and administered



> Alternatively one could use icons - say Happy Faces - to identify 
> a set
>of recommended easier questions that nobody should quit without
>attempting, if there was a reason to use the order to encode something
>else.

or ... sad faces that mean ... unless you are really smart ... DON'T TRY ME!


> -Robert Dawson
>
>
>=
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_
dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university
208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm



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Re: MDS, the radex, and indices of multidimensionality agreement

[John Uebersax]

[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Niko Tiliopoulos) wrote in message 
news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...

> Q1. I have run a multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS) and the
> 2D-map suggests that the variables are arranged in a circular-like
> fashion. I have found a paper that presents a 2D-map showing a similar
> arrangement. 

Louis Guttman did work on circular MDS structures in the '70s.  If the
paper you refer to is not one of his, you might look at some of
Guttman's work.

> Q2. I have also run a factor analysis on the same dataset, and I would
> like to compare the level of agreement between the  FA factors and the
> MDS dimensions.

There is a mathematical identity between Euclidean metric MDS and
principle components analysis of Pearson correlations.  The solutions
are the same, I believe, except for a scaling of individual
dimensions/components and perhaps rotation.  This is possibly
described in Torgerson WS (1958) Theory and Methods of Scaling.

More generally, you could perform a canonical correlation analysis
between the two solutions, and measure agreement with the R^2.

Another possibility is to calculate the Pearson correlation between
all pairwise distances between all points in the MDS solution with the
corresponding pairwise distances in the factor analysis solution; I
believe the statistical significance of such a correlation is not
correct (because data points are not independent) but the r^2 is still
a measure of the proportion of variance in one structure explained by
the other.

Hope this helps.

John

John Uebersax, PhD (805) 384-7688 
Thousand Oaks, California  (805) 383-1726 (fax)
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Agreement Stats:   http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/jsuebersax/agree.htm
Latent Structure:  http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/jsuebersax
Existential Psych: http://members.aol.com/spiritualpsych



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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[Robert J. MacG. Dawson]

> The focused test eliminates questions that would enable students to score A's,
> B's, and C's.  All they get is another chance to score a D rather than an F.
> Implicit in the very concept of the focused test is the idea that a student who
> fails the standard MCAS test cannot be more than a D student. Such students
> will be accommodated with a special test on which they cannot score better than
> a D: MCAS for Dummies. The cynicism of the proposal is almost beyond belief ...
> The board is telling every 10th-grader in Massachusetts: "It's not important to
> pass the MCAS on the first try. Not only will we give you four more chances, we
> will offer you an easier test if you fail the first time. That's your prize for
> losing." The booby prize turns out to be first prize.



The focussed test isn't an entirely bad idea; it does allow a genuine D
student to avoid getting blown out of the water by questions intended to
discriminate between A and B students. However, it seems like a very
poor way to carry the idea out.


An obvious approach that would seem to give the advantages hoped for
from the focussed test without the disadvantages would be just to group
questions in the original test in roughly increasing order of
difficulty. One might (I'm not so sure that this would be a good idea) 
put between each group a rubric along the lines of

===
PROGRESS CHECKPOINT 1
If you have got the right answers to 15 of the preceding 20 questions
you have already passed (50%).
If you have got the right answers to 18 of the preceding 20 questions
you have already got at least a C- (60%).
The questions below are mostly more advanced. Right answers to any of
them will raise your numerical mark further and may raise your letter
grade.  
KEEP ON GOING!
===


Alternatively one could use icons - say Happy Faces - to identify a set
of recommended easier questions that nobody should quit without
attempting, if there was a reason to use the order to encode something
else.

-Robert Dawson


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp

[EugeneGall]

Dennis Roberts wrote:

>
>At 12:31 PM 8/27/01 +, EugeneGall wrote:
>>  The Harcourt-Brace description of the boxplot, which is now being taught
>>to MA students, isn't a proper boxplot (maybe the Harcourt-Brace K-12
>boxplot
>>is different from the Tukey boxplot), becuase it doesn't properly plot 
>>outliers
>>and extreme outliers.
>
>
>of course, boxplots do NOT have to show outliers if there are none, 
>correct? so, what you are saying is that in THIS case ... since you have 
>done more digging into the boxplot put on item 39 ... and have concluded 
>that it is not properly designated ... that it is wrong
>
>now, i made a data set ... here is the old time boxplot ... that you can 
>get from minitab ... which is perfectly legit ...
>
>Boxplot
>
>
>   -
>   I + I--
>   -
>   +-+-+-+-+-+--C1
>20.0  22.0  24.0  26.0  28.0  30.0
>
>there is no designation for outliers since, by definition in this data set 
>... there are none
>
>in the better graphic version minitab has ... all you see are single lines 
>extending from the hinges ... with NO other symbols (dots, etc.)
>
>thus, in the item 39 example ... while i assume that the dots at both ends 
>are just meant to show where the data stop ... this is not how (i dare 
>say?) ANY software would show it ...
>
>however, if the boxplot were done by hand ... you might see the texts that 
>they are using depict it this way ... draw a box ... extend lines ... put 
>dots at the end to signify more clearly ... the ends ... and the notion of 
>"outliers" MAY NOT enter into the discussions carried on in mass. class 
>curricula ...
>
>in any case ... we have a messy item ... by ANY criterion used

The MA curriculum guidelines uses a boxplot figure from the Harcourt Brace
glossary. An interactive version of the MA curriculum guidelines with a link to
the boxplot def is posted at:
http://www.doe.mass.edu/frameworks/math00/
This definition of boxplot where the whisker extends to cover ALL the data
follows the definition of boxplot at the National Council for Teaching
Mathematics.
http://standards.nctm.org/document/index.htm
This NCTM boxplot is NOT the boxplot that Tukey described and it is not the
boxplot that you get with SPSS, SAS, Minitab or Matlab (the packages that I
have at hand).  The two boxplots are the same if there are no outliers.  BUT,
the virtue of the Tukey boxplot is that it allows you to see the outliers.
  I have no idea why the NCTM decided to create a different boxplot.  I don't
have the original Tukey paper, but I do have Cleveland's books, Tufte's books
and a number of other books describing the boxplot.  None follow the NCTM
method of drawing a boxplot. 


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[Rich Ulrich]

On 27 Aug 2001 12:11:12 GMT, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (EugeneGall)
wrote:

> David Winsemius wrote
> >Here are the three stated competencies that the test is supposed to measure:
> >http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/01release/

I think it is legitimate for a class-room exam to offer
an item that rewards classroom attendance.  BUT (as
someone else suggested) there is a different standard
for state-wide exams of achievement.


If the item on box-plots were more precise and self-honest
(like the way that TV game shows try to qualify their Qs)
I guess it would have to ask, "According to the version
of box-plots described in the H-B textbooks, the line
in the  middle stands for  ?"  

The long version of the question, like I just gave, has
a virtue of cultivating precision.  That's either scholastic or
pedantic, but it might qualify as a competency, I think.
Whereas, the short version does not.

Believing blindly that the mid-line *has to be*  the median,
because "that's what I was taught"  seems to harken in 
a dark way back to the religious intolerance of the 
founding settlers of Massachusetts.  I want any kid to 
know that the answer, here, is an arbitrary convention.


-- 
Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html


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Re: SCAM WARNING Re: urgent response needed

[Lise DeShea]

I have reported this spam/scam email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]  In case you are
interested in trying to fight the proliferation of spam, here's what you do:

-- Set your preferences so that all mail headers will be shown.  (In Netcape,
you do this by clicking View --> Headers --> All.)
-- Copy the entire email, with all headers, into a new message.
-- put the word spam in the subject heading.
-- Address the email to the ISP from which the spam originated; in this case, I
sent it to [EMAIL PROTECTED]  Most ISP's have such an address for this purpose.
The exception is the ISP set up specifically to spam people.

You'll often get an automatic reply from the ISP's server, thanking you for the
report.

Lise DeShea, Ph.D.
University of Kentucky
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

"Gordon D. Pusch" wrote:

> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Chike Ubah) writes:
>
> > ATTENTION:
> >  Dear Sir,
> > This letter might surprise you because; we have not
> > met neither in person nor by correspondence. But I
> > believe it is one day that you get know somebody
> > either in physical or through correspondence.
> [ Rest deleted ]
>
> WARNING: This is a scam. See 
> and  for more examples.
>
> =
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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[EugeneGall]

Dennis Robers wrote:
>eugene ... first of all ... how come your email ID always gets bounced
>back???
I added a nospam to the address to limit spam.
>now, certainly, you are not saying are you that if they "fail" this test 
>the first time they take it in the 10th grade ... when it is given ... they 
>cannot graduate, are you??? if that were the case ... these %ages below 
>would pack up and quit attending school

See below.  This spring, the dept of ed allowed 4 retakes.  After the 1st
retake, the exam is reduced in size to the core questions.  I don't know what
theory is used to decide that a subset of 41 is preferable to using more
questions to make this decision.  The final exam will be stripped of the most
difficult questions.  The student will have to pass the exam, but won't be
given a chance to work on difficult questions.
   John Silber, ex Chancellor of BU has bitterly opposed this DOE approach in
an op/ed column.  He wants to keep all retakes at the same high level. Here is
the abstract of Silber's Boston Herald 2/2/01 oped.  For Silber fans (there
must be some somewhere), you can pay for the full version from the Boston
Herald archives for $2.
http://www.bostonherald.com/
Silber abstract:
Ed board goes off course 
Boston Herald; Feb 2, 2001;
by John SILBER; 
The board also authorized two new tests in addition to the standard MCAS test:
the
"parallel test" and the "focused test." These terms are typical educationist
smog. As far as one can make out from the Department of Education's briefing
document for the board, the parallel test has the same sort of questions as the
standard test, but fewer of them.
The bureaucrats explain that some questions in the standard MCAS test are used
not to produce student scores but to maintain constant standards from year to
year. They make no case that there is a downside to leaving these questions in.
The expense and complication imposed by the parallel test are major and
unnecessary.

The focused test eliminates questions that would enable students to score A's,
B's, and C's.  All they get is another chance to score a D rather than an F.
Implicit in the very concept of the focused test is the idea that a student who
fails the standard MCAS test cannot be more than a D student. Such students
will be accommodated with a special test on which they cannot score better than
a D: MCAS for Dummies. The cynicism of the proposal is almost beyond belief ...
The board is telling every 10th-grader in Massachusetts: "It's not important to
pass the MCAS on the first try. Not only will we give you four more chances, we
will offer you an easier test if you fail the first time. That's your prize for
losing." The booby prize turns out to be first prize.
End Silber abstract

  Since this current 2001 MCAS 10th grade math test is the first to really be
make or break, the Dept of Ed hasn't yet finalized the timing or nature of the
various retakes.  The state is still grading the essay portions of the 2001
math and english tests.  For example of a non-multiple choice statistics
question see Question 40 of the 41 question 2001 math test at
http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/01release/
As addressed on another thread, this question is very poor.
  Commissioner Driscoll just posted the 2001-2002 test schedule
http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/2001docs/0822memo.html
  Students who failed the 2001 math test will be notified in mid- to late
October.  Their first chance for a retake will be in mid-December.  I don't
know when those reports will be available.
  Of course, I haven't seen anything posted about 5-6 week crash courses in
math & statistics that will allow the tens of thousands of MA students who
failed the spring 2001 math test a reasonable chance of passing that
mid-December test.
  Many have voiced concern that students who fail these exams may be tempted to
drop out.  They will not be granted a diploma unless they pass.  We'll probably
know within 1 year or two about how mandated make-or-break testing affects
dropout rates.


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OT: SCAM WARNING Re: urgent response needed

[Robert J. MacG. Dawson]

"Gordon D. Pusch" wrote:
> 
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Chike Ubah) writes:
> 
> > ATTENTION:
> >  Dear Sir,
> > This letter might surprise you because; we have not
> > met neither in person nor by correspondence. But I
> > believe it is one day that you get know somebody
> > either in physical or through correspondence.
> [ Rest deleted ]
> 
> WARNING: This is a scam...

Of course it is.

OTOH, as almost every version of this that I've seen proposes
partnership in highly illegal activities, it could be argued that there
is no point protecting those who are dishonest enough to bite the hook.  

OTGH, anybody daft or ill-informed enough to think - by now - that this
was for real might also be suspected of being unaware of the illegality
of the proposed actions (or, indeed, of the color of the sky on the
planet occupied by most of us); so perhaps solicitude for the gravely
clue-challenged might justify a warning after all.

-Robert Dawson


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Antigen found W32/Hybris-B virus

[ANTIGEN_SMMAIL1]

Antigen for Exchange found sexy virgin.scr infected with W32/Hybris-B virus.
The file is currently Deleted.  The message, "edstat-digest V2000 #490", was
sent from [EMAIL PROTECTED] (edstat-digest) and was
discovered in IMC Queues\Inbound
located at RAND/Santa Monica/SMMAIL1.


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SCAM WARNING Re: urgent response needed

[Gordon D. Pusch]

[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Chike Ubah) writes:

> ATTENTION: 
>  Dear Sir,
> This letter might surprise you because; we have not
> met neither in person nor by correspondence. But I
> believe it is one day that you get know somebody
> either in physical or through correspondence.
[ Rest deleted ]

WARNING: This is a scam. See 
and  for more examples.


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Antigen found =*.scr file

[Antigen]

Antigen for Exchange found sexy virgin.scr matching =*.scr file filter.
The file is currently Removed.  The message, "edstat-digest V2000 #490", was
sent from [EMAIL PROTECTED] (edstat-digest) and was discovered in 
SMTP Messages\Inbound
located at Utah State University/BIOLOGY/BIOSERVER1.




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ADV: I bet that I make more money in the Web design business than you do. Time:10:33:27 AM

[WebMaster1954]

I bet that I make more money in the Web design business than you do.

>From the customers I received last month I made $1560 income.
I also profited on these people $1000 up front.
And you know the funniest part?
I didn't even design their sites!
They did it themselves!

I bet your sales pitch doesn't come anywhere near mine.

My sales pitch looks like this:

Free Website! 
Free .com, .net, or .org name! 
Free First Month! 
Free Shopping Cart for E-commerce! 
Free Secure Credit Card Transaction Server Access! 
Free Website Editor! (Allows you to control your entire site from anywhere in the 
world 
with nothing more than your Internet browser!) 
Free Website Statistics Analysis! 
Unlimited everything! 
Unlimited Email Addresses! 
Unlimited Hosting Space! 
Unlimited Bandwidth! 
Unlimited Pages! 
Unlimited Capacity of items in the Shopping Cart! 
Fastest Websites!!! (Hosted on the best servers and bandwidth anywhere!) 
Website Promotion Options… 
There is nothing left to add to this service! 
If you can use a word processor,
You can manage your own website! 
Only $35/month after your first FREE month! 
Everything you need to be doing business online NOW is here for only $25! (Limited 
time 
offer)

I have been advertising this pitch on the front of my website for my design business 1 
month, I have received over 40 signups.

People SIGNUP EVERY SINGLE DAY.  Almost, they bunch up on the weekends often.

1 month= $1560 income that comes in every month with no work!
I will beat that number this month easily, but assuming I just keep up the same pace, 
next month will net $3,120 PROFIT.

I hate to break it to you, but for a FACT I will be netting at least $10,720 a month 
by 
the end of the year.
I got that number after subtracting $8000 to account for cancellations down the line.  
That is a ton of money!

That is also the reason that I make more money in the web design business than you.
My service is also better.
You can't give anyone the as much value as I can.
You can't give them the power to control their site as I can.
You can't give them the prices that I can.
You can't get them online as fast as I can.
And even if somehow you found a way to do all that, you won't able to keep your 
customers as long as I do.
Wow.  Don't believe me?

The interface I give my customers is easier to use than any other I have seen.
It is by far the best web based interface you will ever see.  A monkey would have a 
hard 
time making a site look bad with the software I include for my 

Customers.

I charge them $35 a month and I only pay $10!  I know I could charge a lot more for 
the 
service, but I am more interested in getting as many customers as possible now, than I 
am on making more on them.

If you did the numbers to make sure I wasn't making them up, you'll see $560 missing 
this month.  Where did it come from?
There is an optional search engine submission program, that 70 percent of the people 
that signup opt for, I charge them $30/month.  I pay $10.

If they do decide they would like custom work done, no problem.  I do it for them, and 
they don't try to bother me to change little things all the time on 
their site, because I give them the power to do it themselves, which they prefer.  I 
like it to, keeps my time free for things I enjoy.

In addition to being able to get at customers you can't, and being able to upsell them 
to all the custom design work I like, when ever I like,

I bet I have a whole bunch of other things you DO NOT HAVE.

Private Labeled to me Website Builder/Store Builder (Best Anywhere)
Private Labeled to me Shopping Cart
Private Labeled to me WebMail and Pop3 Service
Private Labeled to me Secure Server Hosting
Private Labeled to me Domain Name Registration
Private Labeled to me Search Engine Submission
Private Labeled to me Control Panel for FTP, email, user access...

I can make as many new templates as I like to start them out from too.

I also never have to pay for custom CGI work to provide E-Commerce solutions anymore.
It is all done for me already, even the payment gateway integration.

I use the same service my end-users use to do design work and It has cut my design 
time 
in more than half.
I can make a complete E-Commerce enabled site in 15-30 minutes, email, shopping cart, 
ftp, running on the net!
Can you do that??

Long story short.  Unless you have some plans I don't know about, My business will be 
making yours look pretty bad in about 12 months.

You can not compete.
Are you getting customers as fast as I am?
Are you making as much on them as I am?
Is that money you are making staying with you every month?
Is there a way for you to provide my customers something I don't?
Can you say the same for yourself?

I am going to let you in on secret now.  
Even though I know that my business will most likely be making a lot more than yours 
in 
12 months, I am not greedy.
I know that BIG money is not in being greedy.
I know that No matter how much money my design company makes next y

Virus

[Simon . Matz]

Dear Members,
I just received warning from our postmaster (Liberty Mutual).
S. Matz

Receiver, InterScan has detected virus(es) in the e-mail attachment.

Date:   Mon, 27 Aug 2001 09:33:17 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Method: Mail
From:   <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
File:   sexy virgin.scr
Action: clean failed - deleted
Virus:  TROJ_HYBRIS.M 



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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp

[Dennis Roberts]

At 12:31 PM 8/27/01 +, EugeneGall wrote:
>  The Harcourt-Brace description of the boxplot, which is now being taught
>to MA students, isn't a proper boxplot (maybe the Harcourt-Brace K-12 boxplot
>is different from the Tukey boxplot), becuase it doesn't properly plot 
>outliers
>and extreme outliers.


of course, boxplots do NOT have to show outliers if there are none, 
correct? so, what you are saying is that in THIS case ... since you have 
done more digging into the boxplot put on item 39 ... and have concluded 
that it is not properly designated ... that it is wrong

now, i made a data set ... here is the old time boxplot ... that you can 
get from minitab ... which is perfectly legit ...

Boxplot


   -
   I + I--
   -
   +-+-+-+-+-+--C1
20.0  22.0  24.0  26.0  28.0  30.0

there is no designation for outliers since, by definition in this data set 
... there are none

in the better graphic version minitab has ... all you see are single lines 
extending from the hinges ... with NO other symbols (dots, etc.)

thus, in the item 39 example ... while i assume that the dots at both ends 
are just meant to show where the data stop ... this is not how (i dare 
say?) ANY software would show it ...

however, if the boxplot were done by hand ... you might see the texts that 
they are using depict it this way ... draw a box ... extend lines ... put 
dots at the end to signify more clearly ... the ends ... and the notion of 
"outliers" MAY NOT enter into the discussions carried on in mass. class 
curricula ...

in any case ... we have a messy item ... by ANY criterion used


>=
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>the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
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_
dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university
208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm



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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[Dennis Roberts]

eugene ... first of all ... how come your email ID always gets bounced back???

now, certainly, you are not saying are you that if they "fail" this test 
the first time they take it in the 10th grade ... when it is given ... they 
cannot graduate, are you??? if that were the case ... these %ages below 
would pack up and quit attending school

so, there must me more than one time they can take the test ... right? if 
so ... how many times? this doesn't make it any less of a high stakes test 
but, to be fair, it is not all or nothing ONCE ... without any other chance 
of taking the test again

and, if there are multiple opportunities for passing the test ... what MUST 
the items be on the alternate forms if they are just as "interesting" 
as the couple that are here being discussed ... this really is an amazing 
assessment strategy!



>As I've mentioned in other posts, this 10th grade MCAS test is a make-or-break
>high stakes test.  A straight-A average won't get you a diploma if you fail
>this test, and the majority of 10th graders in MA fail this test, as it is now
>being scored.  80% of hispanic students, 76% of black students, and 36% of
>white students in MA failed the 2000 10th grade math test.  This despite the
>fact that MA has among the highest NAEP math scores in the nation.
>
>
>=
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_
dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university
208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm



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possible virus

[E. Jacquelin Dietz]

Apparently a message has been sent to edstat that may contain a virus. 
The message has the subject line "Snowhite and the Seven Dwarfs."  If
you receive such a message, please delete it without opening the
attachment.

Jackie Dietz
Listowner
-- 

  E. Jacquelin Dietz   (919) 515-1929  (phone) 
  Department of Statistics, Box 8203   (919) 515-1169  (FAX) 
  North Carolina State University  
  Raleigh, NC  27695-8203   USA[EMAIL PROTECTED] 

  Street address for FedEx:  
  Room 210E Patterson Hall, 2501 Founders Drive



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Snowhite and the Seven Dwarfs - The REAL story!

[Hahaha]

Today, Snowhite was turning 18. The 7 Dwarfs always where very educated and
polite with Snowhite. When they go out work at mornign, they promissed a 
*huge* surprise. Snowhite was anxious. Suddlently, the door open, and the Seven
Dwarfs enter...


<>

Re: definition of " metric" as a noun

[Robert J. MacG. Dawson]

> As for the other examples, 'professional' as a noun was good enough
> for Dickens. Milton (1671) uses 'academic' as a noun.

And Shakespeare, "mechanical".

-Robert Dawson


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp

[EugeneGall]

Jay Warner wrote:
>Trusting that Eugene or someone in Massachusetts can respond, I ask,
>
>Are box and whisker plots included in the material that _must_ be taught
>in the
>K-12 curriculum?  I believe a previous post pointed out that older intro stat
>books, including those listed as suitable for MCAS preparation, do not
>include the
>box and whisker plots explanation as a subject.
>
>If it is not included in those recommended texts, then MCAS developers
>have a
>serious problem on their hands - the 'standards' they evaluate every
>student for
>are not the ones they said would be used.  Before I, or anyone else,
>takes this
>line of thinking any further, I'd like to have some background facts. 
>Fill me in,
>form my vantage point in the midwest?
>
>Jay

Yes. Great question.  The box and whisker plot is listed as a requirement of
the 5th-6th, 7th-8th, and 9th-10th grade curriculum frameworks, which are
available on the web:
http://www.doe.mass.edu/frameworks/current.html
This curriculum framework includes a glossary showing a box and whisker plot. 
And conveniently, for MA textbook purchasers, the figure is taken directly from
the Harcourt Brace K-12 textbook page:
http://www.hbschool.com/glossary/math/glossary8.html

I hope that Harcourt Brace sales rep earned a bonus for that plug!
Unfortunately, for both MCAS and Harcourt Brace, the description given in their
glossary is an inadequate description of the boxplot  It doesn't conform to the
boxplot as proposed by Tukey and used in every statistical package.

Jay, you've solved a riddle for me.  I went through my daughter's 5th grade
math book this spring and was intrigued that it had a picture of a boxplot (but
not properly described).  Now I know why.

The thing I object to about the boxplot question (question 39 in the 2001 10th
grade MCAS) is that doesn't test a basic principle of probability or
statistics.  A Feller or Fisher could not be assured of getting Question 39
correct because it hinges on a definition of the boxplot which is just one of
many ways of plotting data.  A student with a Harcourt-Brace text would stand a
better chance of getting the question correct than one without a Harcourt-Brace
text.  The Harcourt-Brace description of the boxplot, which is now being taught
to MA students, isn't a proper boxplot (maybe the Harcourt-Brace K-12 boxplot
is different from the Tukey boxplot), becuase it doesn't properly plot outliers
and extreme outliers.


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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[EugeneGall]

David Winsemius wrote
>Here are the three stated competencies that the test is supposed to measure:
>http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/01release/
>1) Select, create, and interpret an appropriate graphical representation
>(e.g.,
>scatterplot, table, stem-and-leaf plots, box-and-whisker plots, circle
>graph, line
>graph, and line plot) for a set of data and use appropriate statistics
>(e.g., mean,
>median, range, and mode) to communicate information about the data. Use
>these
>notions to compare different sets of data.
>
>2) Approximate a line of best fit (trend line) given a set of data (e.g.,
>scatterplot).

I don't know what the MA DOE curriculum guide means by a "trend line"

>3) Describe and explain how the relative sizes of a sample and the
>population affect
>the validity of predictions from a set of data.
>
>I think it is fair to say that the only "statistical"  question that
>concerns competency(1) is Q39 and that it does a fairly poor job of
>assessing that competency.
Agreed
>A question that asked which of 4 box-and-whisker plots was summarizing a
>particular datset might be appropriate and fairly simple, or,
>
>A question that asked the student to compare two datasets wherein one had
>more outliers or outliers that were more extreme and aksed how the means and
>medians were affected, or,


Check out Question 39.  The upper whisker is plotted improperly if it IS
supposed to be a Tukey boxplot.  The whisker should only extend to the adjacent
point within 1.5 IQRs of the upper quartile.  The IQR appears to be 6 (from 23
to 29), so the whisker should extend to the adjacent data point that is less
than 37.  The plot shows the whisker extending to 41.  The plot is wrong.
>Simply ask then to construct a box plot for a set of unordered data.

If the MCAS testers themselves plot the data improperly and the many reviewers
of this vital test missed the problem of plotting the upper adjacent values, do
you think it fair to require every 10th grader to know the defintions of IQR
and adjacent values in a Tukey boxplot in order to receive their high school
diploma?  I don't think anybody would regard this as fair.

>On another point regarding q40, can anyone tell me how one would get a more
>"representative" sample of 25 students than by collecting 25 different
>estimates? I must have really missed the point here.

Good comment.  Question 40 is also a poor question.  The point that I think the
testers were going after, but doing it horribly, is to assess the need for
random sampling in a survey.  However, the question misses the key part of the
problem that lies at the heart of probability and statistics: WHAT IS THE
SAMPLE SPACE or what  is the population that is being surveyed?  
In question 40, there are 25 students in the class and there are 25 estimates
in the sample.  The question asks how much time the average student spends on
homework.  But what is the population?  Is it the students in the class, the
school, the grade, the town, the state or the country?  The question is
miserable, because the sample size is 25 and there are 25 students in the
class, so by implication, the sample is the class.  But 25 estimates of 25
students isn't a sample, it is a complete census.
So, any student taking last spring's MCAS test will have to sit there wondering
if the sample is the class or some larger unspecified population.  Can you go
to the phone book and choose phone numbers at random and then choose students
of K-12 age and ask how many hours they spend on homework?  Do you flag
students at random from a random selection of rooms in your school's classroom?

I agree with you, this question 40 may be worse than Question 39 since it is
not a multiple choice question.  Students must write essays about what sampling
procedure they would use.  Since virtually no student could get this question
correct, without writing that it is a bad question (how would that go over with
the MCAS grader being paid $9 per hour - would they reward that student or
flunk him or her?  What if the essay were full of grammatical errors?  Would
that be a pass?  I suspect that anything that mentioned random sampling would
get a pass on the scoring exam, but if the sample size is 25 and the sample is
all 25 students in the class, then random sampling is NOT the correct answer)

As I've mentioned in other posts, this 10th grade MCAS test is a make-or-break
high stakes test.  A straight-A average won't get you a diploma if you fail
this test, and the majority of 10th graders in MA fail this test, as it is now
being scored.  80% of hispanic students, 76% of black students, and 36% of
white students in MA failed the 2000 10th grade math test.  This despite the
fact that MA has among the highest NAEP math scores in the nation.


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urgent response needed

[Chike Ubah]

   
ATTENTION: 
 Dear Sir,
This letter might surprise you because; we have not
met neither in person nor by correspondence. But I
believe it is one day that you get know somebody
either in physical or through correspondence.
I got your contact through some discreet inquiry from
Chamber of commerce and world trade journal; euroasia
and United States business guide In Nigeria. Then I
was convinced that you and your organization were
quite astute in private entrepreneurships, one has no
doubt in your ability to handle a financial business
transaction.  How ever I am the first son of his Royal
Majesty Chief Daniel Ubah the traditional ruler of
Eleme Province in the oil area of Enugu State Nigeria.
I am making this contact to you in respect of US $
23,000,000.00 (23Million, United States Dollars) which
I inherited from my late father, this money was
accumulated from royalties paid to my father as
compensation by the oil Firm located in our area as a
result of oil presence on our land which hamper
agriculture which is our major source of livehood, My
community produces 5.8%of the total annual crude oil
production in Nigeria and 0.5% of the dollar value of
each barrel is paid to my father as royalty by the
federal government and in his position as the royal
head and chairman of Eleme Oil Trust Fund.
Unfortunately my father died from protracted diabetes.
 But before his death he called my attention and my
mother and informed us that he lodged some funds in
boxes with a security firm with an open beneficiary,
the Lodgments Security Code Number was also revealed
to us, he then advised us to look for a reliable
business partner abroad, who will assist me in
investing the money in a lucrative business as a
result of economic instability in Nigeria. So this is
the major reason why I am contacting you for us to
move this money from the security firm to any country
of your choice for investments purposes. Another vital
factor is that, due to my political ambition in order
to beat the political code of Conduct Bureau.  I do
not want anybody here to know that I inherited such a
big money to avoid Disqualification by the commission
on my intended
Political interest. So I will like you to be the
ultimate beneficiary, so That the funds can be moved
in your name and Particulars to any country of your
choice where it will be claimed and invested. Hence my
father had Intimated the security firm personnel that
the Beneficiary of the box is his foreign partner
whose Particulars will be forwarded to the firm when
due.  But I will guide you accordingly. As soon as the
fund reaches you, I will then come over to meet you in
person, so that we can discuss Physically on
Investment Potentials.  Based on this
Assistance my family and I have unanimously decided to
give you 20% of the total money, 2% for Charity homes
abroad.  5% for expenses, which might arise during the
Transaction, fax and phone bills inclusively 73% you
will assist me in investing for my family.
I here guarantee you that this money is not government
money.  It is not drug money and it is not money from
arms deals.  Please kindly maintain a high degree of
confidentiality on this matter.  I will give you more
details immediately I get your swift response.  Please
  note that all our communication can be through my
e-mail.  This was due to the sensitivity of this
matter.   Do not send anything to me by surface mail
to avoid interception by wrong hands. My Email Address
Please if you are not interested kindly contact me
immediately, so that I can look for another contact.  
 I am waiting for your quick response.  I hope this is
the beginning of a prosperous
Relationship between my family and your family.
Yours faithfully,
PRINCE Chike Ubah (Ph. D) 

On behalf of the family.


__
Do You Yahoo!?
Make international calls for as low as $.04/minute with Yahoo! Messenger
http://phonecard.yahoo.com/


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Re: a problem.

[Donald Burrill]

On Sun, 26 Aug 2001 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

> I have trouble to solve this probability problem.  Hope get help here. 
> 
> There is N balls, Pick up M1 balls with replacement from them.
> what is the expected value of different balls we pick up?

"Expected value" of what characteristic of the balls?  

 
 Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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Re: Boston Globe: MCAS results show weakness in teens' grasp of

[Jay Warner]

Before you decide how the test should be set up, and what should be on it, you
_must_ decide what you want the test result to do.  Should sound a familiar
refrain to people who use statistics to answer questions and solve problems.
There are at least two options:

1)the test is a 'standards' focus type, in which everyone must reach a
certain score to advance, or graduate, or be considered 'nice' people.
Whatever.  In this case, we should set the questions to evaluate the ability of
the student to understand/be able to manipulate a core set of material, which
we decided is the minimum necessary to survive at the next level.  In the case
of the MCAS tests, they must pass it to graduate from high school.  Asking
questions that are at the high end of the expected learning level (don't ask me
for an operational definition of that - I don't make these terms up:) is a
waste of time - we only need to know if the student understands the core
material.  It is very likely that many students will breeze through such a
test, suggesting that the core material is not a challenge for them.  Of course
not!  The test is seeking to discover who barely makes it through HS, and who
does not.  BTW, the ISO9000:2000 Quality standards for a company fall into this
category of 'test.'

2)the test seeks to assess the degree of learning level achieved by the
students - what is sometimes called an achievement, or excellence, focus.  Now
you _want_ to have some questions that just about everyone gets correct, and
some that no one gets correct.  You have to, in order to place everyone on the
scoring scale.  When some students run off near the top, or off near the
bottom, you have to change your exam to include the extremes.  If you don't
then you cannot differentiate between the students, which was your original
goal.  You don't much care what the state wide curriculum is, except as a norm
for most of the questions.  You must adjust your questions to encompass the
range of student capabilities, not the expected subject matter.  BTW, the
Baldrige criteria for assessing a company falls in this category.  As an
assessor for the Wisconsin Forward Award (baby Baldrige), I have not seen a
company score extremely high on the scale, although some firms have done so.
Thus, the scoring scale still goes beyond the extremes of corporate
performance.

Your discussion mentions both of these, but they are neither interchangeable
nor mergable.

for HS graduation, for political reasons I suppose one would want to set the
passing grade so that most students graduate.  However, when done properly, the
minimum 'learning' expectations for post-HS success should be developed,
followed by tests of that level of learning.  Recommended curriculum content
might fit in there, too, before the tests.  If the expectations are valid
(supportable independent of the scores obtained), then the percent who pass
should be a dependent variable, following from the test development.

In Florida, they didn't do the hard expectation development, and so wound up
with a committee debating what score should be made 'passing,' while for each
proposed cut-off score, the technical people told them what percentage of
students who took the exam the previous year would have failed.  The ultimate
political decision, completely independent of what is or is not necessary to
survive past HS.

then you said, "If I'm going to deny graduation to some
individual on the basis of this test, I'd sure like a test that clearly
demonstrates the kid is clueless before going into court.  A test consisting
of very simple items would accomplish this."

this is the major part of the issue.  A standards test for HS graduation should
aim to detect those suited for graduation, and those not.  'Clueless' comes to
mind, although there were some who would have given me that title when I was
there.  In one state (VA, I believe), analysis found that for  students who
were tested multiple times over the year in different topics, some 10% of the
students could very well have been mislabeled at least once as having failed
when they deserved to pass, or passed when they deserved to fail.  (alpha risk
and beta risk; we've heard this stuff before).  It's in the nature of
measurement, when the measure includes possible measuring error.  We've heard
about that, too.  BTW, passing instead of failing in this case denied needy
students some extra instructional help.

'clearly demonstrates' is not part of these tests, unless they are expanded way
beyond rationality.  Interpreting the test results as an absolute measure, of
anything, is a fraud at worst, and demonstrated ignorance by the legislators at
best.  You can count up the politics of it as you see fit.  It remains
technically invalid.

Jay

"Olsen, Chris" wrote:

> Hello Dennis and All --
>
>   Please pardon the formatting of my response here -- apparently I cannot
> choose a different font, so I will bracket my comments by "-->" and "<---."
>
> Dennis write